BOJ October rate hike? Dead.
Totan Research data shows just 5% odds for a hike at the Oct 29-30 meeting. Market's moved on.
Context: BOJ went from 6-month to 3-month tightening cycles after September's move. Fed also raised in Sept (first in 3+ years).
Both central banks likely holding this month. But December? 70%+ probability priced in for hikes from both.
The kicker: Japan's inflation still hasn't hit the 2% target. BOJ's in a tough spot—tighten too fast and risk breaking things, move too slow and yen keeps bleeding.
Watch December. That's when things get spicy for $JPY pairs and risk-on flows.
Totan Research data shows just 5% odds for a hike at the Oct 29-30 meeting. Market's moved on.
Context: BOJ went from 6-month to 3-month tightening cycles after September's move. Fed also raised in Sept (first in 3+ years).
Both central banks likely holding this month. But December? 70%+ probability priced in for hikes from both.
The kicker: Japan's inflation still hasn't hit the 2% target. BOJ's in a tough spot—tighten too fast and risk breaking things, move too slow and yen keeps bleeding.
Watch December. That's when things get spicy for $JPY pairs and risk-on flows.