MASTER STROKE TRADERS

Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% from its February lows and bulls have been feeling good about it for weeks. The problem, according to one analyst who has held the same macro thesis unchanged for months, is that this is exactly how it felt before the last two major drops.
The bigger picture has not changed. Bitcoin is working through a larger corrective structure and the current move higher is a bounce within that correction, not a new bull trend. The analyst has seen this pattern play out repeatedly:
Upward moves in corrective phases take a long time, keeping bulls feeling right for extended periodsVolume during this rally has dropped to levels not seen since 2023, signalling a market approaching an inflection point rather than building genuine momentumWhen the eventual decline comes it tends to be sharp and fast, catching most participants off guard
Not Yet, But Getting Closer
The analyst is not calling a top right now. One or possibly two more highs remain likely before the setup he is watching materialises. What he is specifically looking for.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Today: Analyst Issues Warning As Volume Hits a 2023 Low During a 30% Rally
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Today: Analyst Issues Warning As Volume Hits a 2023 Low During a 30% Rally
Bitcoin Eyes $78,000 Resistance—Will the BTC Price Rise Above the October Bearish Trend
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 30% from its February lows and bulls have been feeling good about it for weeks. The problem, according to one analyst who has held the same macro thesis unchanged for months, is that this is exactly how it felt before the last two major drops.
The bigger picture has not changed. Bitcoin is working through a larger corrective structure and the current move higher is a bounce within that correction, not a new bull trend. The analyst has seen this pattern play out repeatedly:
Upward moves in corrective phases take a long time, keeping bulls feeling right for extended periods
Volume during this rally has dropped to levels not seen since 2023, signalling a market approaching an inflection point rather than building genuine momentum
When the eventual decline comes it tends to be sharp and fast, catching most participants off guard
Not Yet, But Getting Closer
The analyst is not calling a top right now. One or possibly two more highs remain likely before the setup he is watching materialises. What he is specifically looking for.
A clean five-move decline from whatever high forms next is the first signal a top is in
Until that structure appears the upside door stays open and the channel holds
A three-move bounce following that decline creates the ideal short entry with a tight stop and a strong reward-to-risk ratio
The Levels That Matter
Bitcoin could push toward the $82,000 resistance zone and potentially test the top of the channel before any reversal develops. Below current price the key levels break down as follows:
First support: $74,968 to $77,250
Channel lower boundary: approximately $76,400
Deeper support: $67,500 to $72,900 if selling accelerates
The rally is real and the channel is intact. But the analyst has seen this movie before and knows how it tends to end. The only question is whether it starts from here or from a little higher up.

🚨 SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW

Last week, I warned you the $87K breakout would fail and $BTC would dump back toward $81K.

The final bull trap is over. $BTC is now entering the liquidation phase.

Everything is playing out exactly as I predicted.

We’ve seen this failed-breakout pattern before.

$82K → $72K → $70K → $68K → $58K

Don’t get caught buying this failed breakout.
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The altcoin market remains relatively steady this week, as BTC has experienced choppy range bound price action. MATIC was a coin of this interest even though volume has dropped over 17%. Earlier this week Polygon raised $450m from some big institutional players in a private sale of their native token. Read more here!MATIC is currently up 1.6% in the last 7 days, quite flat in comparison to other weeks!HOOK is another coin of interest as it was recently listed on the exchange, with trading volumes rising over 350%. Hooked protocol is looking to build an onramp later for web3, providing institutions with an infrastructure to enter the space!
Trade our top 5 weekly coins of interest here!
What is the Binance Convert Portal?
The Binance Convert Portal is a way for users to simply exchange one coin to another without working the orderbook. There are zero fees, slippage or risk of getting filled providing many benefits to both day traders and long term investors.
We break down the convert portal transactions to gauge where the market is each week. We notice a pattern with the top 3 consisting of; stable coin swaps, crypto to stablecoin and stablecoin to crypto. When the market is quiet, seeing extended movements stablecoin swaps usually top the list with users transacting between BUSD and USDT with tight spreads. On the flipside when the market has seen a period of expansion (up or down) we will usually see crypto to stablecoin or stablecoin to crypto transactions top the list as users will enter and exit positions.

Convert Portal Volume Breakdown
With BTC trading range bound for the week, we have seen some stability in the market. Topping the list was stablecoin swaps with a value of 31.08%, an average base to what we have seen in previous weeks. 2nd was crypto to stablecoin transactions, coming in at 23.66%. Again with the market trading in a range, traders will quickly look to exit positions on short term rallies securing any short term profits made. As always we do expect to see some averaging into positions as investors look to take advantage of these low prices, stablecoin to crypto transactions were 16.82% with not much action occurring!
Overall market technicals
BTC
After sweeping the yearly low last month, BTC has been slowly grinding towards the upside forming short term ranges within the overall higher time frame range. This week we saw BTC remain in its short term range, swinging around 3.5% in either direction. Playing level to level the bulls will need to see this range hold, with a break of resistance ($17,310) where we are likely to see a move towards the higher time frame range resistance($18,200).Alternatively, we are likely to remain trading within the tight range and can expect to see more sideways movement until the next big news driver occurs!Touching briefly on the S&P 500, on the higher time frame the market is still trending towards the upside. If this confidence continues, it is likely that BTC will continue to trend in the same direction.As always, we will need to pay attention to shifts in market structure as this is vital for identifying key pivotal points!


ETH

ETH as always has been trading in a similar fashion to BTC, as it still remains range bound on the higher timeframe. Last month when BTC swept the yearly low, ETH did not suggesting that a pool of liquidity still remains below. As it stands, the midrange level ($1210) has been well respected as a short term support level, previously acting as a resistance. At these levels it is very hard to determine what the next direction will be as it is a 50/50 toss up whilst trading near the mid range levels. If strength continues, ETH will need to break and hold its short term resistance level to then target the overall range high ($1350). As always, the next moves will be determined by overall market sentiment, anything can happen!

Binance Execution Solutions
Whilst Binance Convert Portal and RFQ Block Trading is a great, simple way to execute trades across a wide range of Crypto pairs, sometimes this is not the most efficient method especially for the more illiquid pairs. Binance has developed a way round this by using agency execution algos that provides an intelligent solution to optimize execution.
Our execution algos ​​facilitate the execution of large crypto trades while reducing average cost of execution and market signaling. Algorithmic execution is already widely used in traditional financial markets, with a majority of large-volume trades in the market executed via algo orders.
Binance’s execution algos have been fully optimized for the cryptocurrency markets, executing your orders into smaller blocks with logic-based strategies. Order types include time-based (TWAP) and volume-based strategies. More information on our algos can be found here!
Email: Liquidity@binance.com
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