Sept CPI Hot at 3.7% — Oil & Treasuries Shaken! #CPIWatch*
CPI came hotter than expected on Oct 14 — and Oil is to blame.
*Data:*
Headline YoY: *3.7%* vs 3.6% est, 3.4% prev
MoM: 0.6% vs 0.4% prev
Core YoY: *2.6%* vs 2.5% est
Energy YoY: *20.4%*, Gasoline +9.1% MoM — more than 50% of monthly rise.
Brent crude at *$105.50* on Middle East tensions. My chart proves CPI and Brent are moving together since July. If oil keeps climbing, Oct CPI will be even hotter.
*Treasuries reaction:*
10Y yield *5.195%*, 30Y *5.55%* — near 24-year highs. Hot print revived Fed hike bets for December. Tech sold off, dollar and yields jumped. Fed will likely skip Oct 28, but December hike risk is now real.
*My trade plan:*
Long $BZUSDT — Oil momentum + CPI energy squeeze not over. Stop below $92.
Bearish $TMFUSDT short-term, bullish $TBT — yields heading to 5.36% if hot trend continues.
Parked cash in $RWUSD for yield while waiting.
Strategy: Don't buy dip in long bonds yet. Wait for 10Y to cool below 5%. Oil remains stronger than Treasuries until energy inflation breaks.
Are you long Oil or short Treasuries?
#CPIWatch $BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT $RWUSD
CPI came hotter than expected on Oct 14 — and Oil is to blame.
*Data:*
Headline YoY: *3.7%* vs 3.6% est, 3.4% prev
MoM: 0.6% vs 0.4% prev
Core YoY: *2.6%* vs 2.5% est
Energy YoY: *20.4%*, Gasoline +9.1% MoM — more than 50% of monthly rise.
Brent crude at *$105.50* on Middle East tensions. My chart proves CPI and Brent are moving together since July. If oil keeps climbing, Oct CPI will be even hotter.
*Treasuries reaction:*
10Y yield *5.195%*, 30Y *5.55%* — near 24-year highs. Hot print revived Fed hike bets for December. Tech sold off, dollar and yields jumped. Fed will likely skip Oct 28, but December hike risk is now real.
*My trade plan:*
Long $BZUSDT — Oil momentum + CPI energy squeeze not over. Stop below $92.
Bearish $TMFUSDT short-term, bullish $TBT — yields heading to 5.36% if hot trend continues.
Parked cash in $RWUSD for yield while waiting.
Strategy: Don't buy dip in long bonds yet. Wait for 10Y to cool below 5%. Oil remains stronger than Treasuries until energy inflation breaks.
Are you long Oil or short Treasuries?
#CPIWatch $BZUSDT $TMFUSDT $TBT $RWUSD