Bitcoin could be entering a new bull market despite the market decline and liquidations over the past week. Bitcoin recovered above its 50-week moving average near $78,800 in September, a signal that previously marked bull-market transitions. BloFin Research argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is weakening, with future rallies potentially delivering smaller gains and shorter, less severe downturns. However, last week's $679 million outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs shows that institutional demand can still weaken sharply during market stress. A sustained move below the current 50-week moving average would weaken the bullish signal.