THEORY OF CRYPTO CURRENCY 💵

The long-term theory of the crypto economy is built on exactly this logic. However, there is an important distinction between the “short-term” and the “long-term.” The entire concept can be explained in two simple stages:

1. Why Could BTC Pump in the Long Term?

Money Printing and Dollar Devaluation: War costs billions of dollars. To cover these expenses, the U.S. government may issue additional bonds, while the Federal Reserve could indirectly contribute to an increase in the money supply. This can lead to more dollars circulating in the market.

The Shift Toward Scarce Assets: When traditional fiat currencies are printed in large quantities, their purchasing power can decline due to inflation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a fixed maximum supply of just 21 million coins. Therefore, when the dollar loses purchasing power, investors may turn to scarce assets like Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” to protect their wealth. This could help drive a significant long-term rally in BTC. Crypto experts such as Arthur Hayes have also made predictions about a potential major rally in the future amid these wartime conditions.

2. But What Happens in the Short Term?

Before a potential long-term rally, the market may move in the opposite direction during the early stages of a war.

Immediate Panic (Risk-Off Sentiment): When war breaks out, investors may panic and sell riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, moving their money into cash or U.S. dollars instead!

Rising Interest Rates: According to the 2026 market scenario, rising oil prices are increasing inflationary pressure, potentially prompting the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates (currently stated to be between 3.75% and 4.00%). Higher interest rates can reduce market liquidity and make investors less willing to invest in risky assets, putting temporary downward pressure on the crypto market.

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