8🇺🇸 According to a new study by the Fed New York, President Trump's tariffs have significantly increased consumer goods prices in the US.
The study examined 67 consumer goods categories and estimates that as of February 2026:
- Actual goods prices rose by about 2% compared to a year earlier.
- Without tariffs, prices might have fallen by about 0.9%.
- Thus, tariffs contributed approximately 2.9 percentage points to the inflation of these categories.
About 2/3 of the impact comes from direct taxes on imported goods. The remainder stems from higher raw material costs and US businesses raising prices as imports become more expensive.
According to the Fed New York forecast, the impact of tariffs on inflation peaked in early 2026 and will continue to decline in 2027.
This does not mean that goods prices will return to previous levels, but rather that the upward pressure on prices due to tariffs is gradually easing.
However, there is one point to note about this study: the figures on the impact of tariffs estimated by the Fed New York are based on an economic model, not directly observable results.
Goods prices also depend on many other factors such as production costs, transportation, consumer demand, and competition.
We cannot turn back time to know exactly what prices would have been like without tariffs. Therefore, the 0.9% decline figure is an estimate from an economic model, not actual data. The model's assumption is that prices rose due to cost pressures like tariffs, but in reality, price increases might simply be because companies wanted more profit.
#IMFSaysTokenizedMarketsSmall #FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause #EvernorthDelaysNasdaqDebutToOct12 #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #IMFGrantsWaiverForElSalvadorBitcoinBreach
The study examined 67 consumer goods categories and estimates that as of February 2026:
- Actual goods prices rose by about 2% compared to a year earlier.
- Without tariffs, prices might have fallen by about 0.9%.
- Thus, tariffs contributed approximately 2.9 percentage points to the inflation of these categories.
About 2/3 of the impact comes from direct taxes on imported goods. The remainder stems from higher raw material costs and US businesses raising prices as imports become more expensive.
According to the Fed New York forecast, the impact of tariffs on inflation peaked in early 2026 and will continue to decline in 2027.
This does not mean that goods prices will return to previous levels, but rather that the upward pressure on prices due to tariffs is gradually easing.
However, there is one point to note about this study: the figures on the impact of tariffs estimated by the Fed New York are based on an economic model, not directly observable results.
Goods prices also depend on many other factors such as production costs, transportation, consumer demand, and competition.
We cannot turn back time to know exactly what prices would have been like without tariffs. Therefore, the 0.9% decline figure is an estimate from an economic model, not actual data. The model's assumption is that prices rose due to cost pressures like tariffs, but in reality, price increases might simply be because companies wanted more profit.
#IMFSaysTokenizedMarketsSmall #FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause #EvernorthDelaysNasdaqDebutToOct12 #BinanceLaunchesBinanceIntelligence #IMFGrantsWaiverForElSalvadorBitcoinBreach