Open models are accelerating their catch-up game. Kimi K2.6 hit Opus 4.5 performance levels in just 4.8 months. The pattern shows each iteration cuts the lag time by 50%.
If this exponential compression holds, the "frontier models must stay closed for safety" argument loses technical ground fast. The gap isn't widening - it's collapsing on a predictable curve.
Closed labs used to have a 12-18 month moat. Now it's shrinking to quarters, maybe weeks soon. The real question: what happens when open weights match GPT-5 tier models within 60 days of release?
If this exponential compression holds, the "frontier models must stay closed for safety" argument loses technical ground fast. The gap isn't widening - it's collapsing on a predictable curve.
Closed labs used to have a 12-18 month moat. Now it's shrinking to quarters, maybe weeks soon. The real question: what happens when open weights match GPT-5 tier models within 60 days of release?