U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded $188 million in net inflows for the week ended September 25, a record for the group, with all seven funds posting inflows. Bitwise’s BSOL represented roughly 68% of the total, according to CoinDesk.
Developers were also testing Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade, intended to reduce payment finality from about 12.8 seconds to roughly 150 milliseconds.
SOL was quoted at $120.07 on October 2, above $118.01 support but below resistance beginning at $122.65. The ETF inflows and Alpenglow testing have improved the bullish narrative, while $125 remains a plausible near-term scenario rather than an established breakout until buyers absorb overhead supply.
SOL daily momentum is bullish, but hourly averages cap the rebound
Daily momentum readings are constructive. Coinotag put SOL’s 14-day RSI at 64.0 on October 2, a bullish reading in the strong zone that remained below the commonly watched 70 overbought threshold. A separate CoinStats reading placed daily RSI at 61.6742, likewise signalling moderate positive momentum.
The broader daily trend data point in the same direction. CoinStats reported a 50-day simple moving average of $102.0133 and a 200-day SMA of $85.551, with the 50-day average above the 200-day measure and SOL trading above both. Those measures describe a supportive higher-timeframe structure, rather than a guarantee that the immediate resistance area will give way.
A September 30 technical review from Block2Learn similarly reported that price was above its 12-, 26-, 50- and 200-day EMAs, while daily RSI stood at 63.54 and MACD was above its signal line. The report nevertheless identified concentrated resistance at $122.94-$124.95, which is the key complication for a move toward the title’s $125 scenario.
On the hourly timeframe, the picture is more constrained. MACD was marginally above its signal line, at 0.622352 versus 0.617939, but was characterized as largely neutral. Meanwhile, the 20-hour EMA at $122.36, 50-hour EMA at $121.20 and 100-hour EMA at $119.49 formed an overhead average cluster around and above the $120.07 spot price.
That arrangement helps explain why positive daily momentum has not yet translated into a confirmed short-term breakout. Reclaiming the hourly averages, particularly those around $121.20 and $122.36, would reduce the immediate technical friction. Remaining beneath them would leave SOL exposed to another test of lower support even as the daily trend remains constructive.
SOL levels: $118.01 support versus the $122.65-$124.95 breakout zone
At $120.07, SOL was trading between its nearest cited daily support at $118.01 and nearest daily resistance at $122.65. The distance to both barriers is relatively narrow, so a confirmed daily close on either side would offer a clearer signal than intraday movement alone.
LevelRoleTechnical context$118.01Nearest supportDaily pivot and clustered support; a close below weakens the setup.$117.20-$115.84Support zoneRecent hourly rebound area combined with first daily pivot support.$113.18Lower supportSecond daily pivot support.$122.65Nearest resistanceDaily pivot and clustered resistance; a close above strengthens the bullish case.$122.94-$124.95Supply zoneRecent ceiling and repeated swing-high supply area.$127.38Higher resistanceSecond daily resistance above the immediate ceiling.
The levels above are drawn from the October 2 Coinotag technical snapshot and the September 30 Block2Learn review. The $125 figure in the headline is an editorial scenario target, not a separately sourced support or resistance level; it sits immediately beyond the cited $122.94-$124.95 supply zone.
For the upside path, SOL first needs a daily close through $122.65. That would put the $122.94-$124.95 ceiling directly in focus. A decisive move through that zone would make a test of $125 technically more credible, while $127.38 is the next supplied resistance beyond it. Merely approaching $125 without clearing the preceding supply area would not constitute confirmation.
The downside case begins with $118.01. Coinotag specifically states that a daily close below this level would weaken the current setup. Beneath it, the $117.20-$115.84 zone is the next area of support, followed by $113.18. Holding $118.01, by contrast, would preserve the near-term structure while buyers attempt another challenge of the resistance cluster.
SOL price prediction: $125 remains conditional on a close through resistance
SOL’s near-term outlook is cautiously bullish, but the evidence supports a conditional call rather than a straight-line prediction. Record weekly inflows into U.S. spot Solana ETFs provide a notable institutional-demand tailwind, and Alpenglow testing adds a concurrent network-development catalyst. Daily RSI readings above 60, price above key longer-term averages, and the positive daily MACD description reinforce that constructive backdrop.
Still, SOL was quoted at $120.07, below both the nearest $122.65 daily resistance and the broader $122.94-$124.95 supply band. The hourly EMA cluster at $121.20 and $122.36 further shows that immediate resistance is not confined to a single price point. ETF flows can support sentiment, but they do not by themselves establish a chart breakout.
For $125 to remain in sight, SOL would need to hold the $118.01 daily support and close above $122.65, then clear the $122.94-$124.95 ceiling. Those steps would convert the current bullish momentum into a more persuasive breakout setup, with $125 just beyond the cited supply zone. A loss of $118.01 on a daily closing basis would weaken that case and shift attention toward $117.20-$115.84, with $113.18 the next listed support.
The immediate test is therefore well defined: record ETF inflows and Alpenglow testing have improved the backdrop, while the chart requires proof above resistance. Until that happens, $125 is a credible conditional objective, not a confirmed destination.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.