📊 the inflation contradiction — good today, warning tomorrow
The macro data in September told two stories simultaneously. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY — the lowest since February 2026, genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. Real progress. But the monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% — above the entire analyst forecast range. And PPI surged to 5.4% YoY — driven by energy, with Brent back above $111 on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good inflation data of September may not survive October. December hike probability stayed above 70% all month. 🧠
#inflation #cpi #corecpi #dyor #fed2percent
The macro data in September told two stories simultaneously. Core CPI dropped to 2.4% YoY — the lowest since February 2026, genuinely approaching the Fed's 2% target. Real progress. But the monthly core CPI came in at 0.3% — above the entire analyst forecast range. And PPI surged to 5.4% YoY — driven by energy, with Brent back above $111 on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The pipeline is hot. What shows up in PPI today shows up in CPI in 2-3 months. The good inflation data of September may not survive October. December hike probability stayed above 70% all month. 🧠
#inflation #cpi #corecpi #dyor #fed2percent