ISM above 55 = alt season fuel. Not a narrative. A pattern.
2017: ISM held above 55. Alts ran.
2021: Same setup. Alts ran.
2025: ISM never broke through. No alt season.
Manufacturing PMI measures US factory expansion. Above 50 = growth. Above 55 = liquidity flows into risk assets. Alts historically go parabolic 15 months after.
2025 failed because $BTC had its cycle but the economy didn't confirm. ISM stuck under 50 most of the year. No macro fuel.
Now ISM is back above 54. August printed 54.6. September forecast 54.8 drops 10 AM ET today.
A hold above 54 doesn't trigger alt season tomorrow. But if ISM pushes toward 60 in coming months, we're looking at a mega alt cycle in 2027-2028.
This is the missing piece from last year. Watch the print.
2017: ISM held above 55. Alts ran.
2021: Same setup. Alts ran.
2025: ISM never broke through. No alt season.
Manufacturing PMI measures US factory expansion. Above 50 = growth. Above 55 = liquidity flows into risk assets. Alts historically go parabolic 15 months after.
2025 failed because $BTC had its cycle but the economy didn't confirm. ISM stuck under 50 most of the year. No macro fuel.
Now ISM is back above 54. August printed 54.6. September forecast 54.8 drops 10 AM ET today.
A hold above 54 doesn't trigger alt season tomorrow. But if ISM pushes toward 60 in coming months, we're looking at a mega alt cycle in 2027-2028.
This is the missing piece from last year. Watch the print.
