Phố Wall quay lại lạc quan với cổ phiếu dù lãi suất cao và giá dầu tăng

bloomingbit · 2026-09-30T09:59:32.000Z

JPMorgan bất ngờ chuyển từ ‘Trung lập’ sang ‘Tăng giá chiến thuật’ Nỗi lo về việc Fed tiếp tục thắt chặt hạ nhiệt WTI giảm xuống dưới 90 USD/thùng lần đầu tiên trong vòng một tháng Goldman Sachs cho biết đợt tăng giá có thể đến sớm Mùa báo cáo lợi nhuận quý 3 là bài kiểm tra cuối cùng Phố Wall, vốn đã trở nên thận trọng trước cú sốc giá dầu cao và lãi suất ở mức cao, đang chuyển trở lại quan điểm lạc quan về cổ phiếu. Sự thay đổi phản ánh kỳ vọng rằng các mức lợi suất đang gây sức ép lên cổ phiếu đã tiến gần đỉnh và sớm sẽ ổn định ở mức thấp hơn. Goldman Sachs thậm chí đã nêu khả năng xảy ra một “cuộc biểu tình kiểu Goldilocks”, trong đó giá dầu hạ nhiệt và lạm phát giảm, tăng trưởng kinh tế ở mức vừa phải cùng lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp mạnh mẽ sẽ thúc đẩy cổ phiếu.

JPMorgan Abruptly Shifts From ‘Neutral’ to ‘Tactical Bullish’
Fears of Further Fed Tightening Ease
WTI Falls Below $90 a Barrel for First Time in a Month
Goldman Sachs Says Rally May Come Early
Third-Quarter Earnings Season Is the Final Test
Wall Street, which had turned cautious amid the shock of high oil prices and elevated interest rates, is shifting back to a bullish view on equities. The change reflects expectations that the yields weighing on stocks are nearing a peak and will soon stabilize lower. Goldman Sachs has even floated the possibility of a “Goldilocks rally,” in which easing oil prices and inflation, moderate economic growth and strong corporate earnings lift equities.
Fed Rate-Hike Fears Cool
In Asian trading on Sept. 30, yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries were around 5.23% and 5.56%, respectively. That was about 0.05 to 0.06 percentage point below their recent highs in New York trading. Yields remain near the highest levels in more than two decades, but expectations are growing that a short-term peak is near.
The decline came as concerns about further Federal Reserve tightening eased and oil prices reversed lower. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and widely seen as the Fed’s No. 2 official, said on Sept. 29 there was no need to rush into another rate increase after action taken at the September meeting. Under his outlook, one more increase by year-end would be appropriate. The comments pushed back against market fears that had priced in two more rate hikes in October and December. In fed funds futures, the implied probability of an October increase fell to 47% from 71%.
International oil prices also turned lower after mediator Qatar said talks between the U.S. and Iran had made progress. Plans by the International Energy Agency to release stockpiles and an expansion project at Oman’s Duqm port also weighed on prices. West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since Sept. 1.
‘Inflation Pressures Easing’
Stability in oil prices and bond yields is the core premise behind renewed optimism on Wall Street. JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence team said on Sept. 28 that the next several weeks should provide a supportive backdrop for U.S. stocks, adopting a “tactical bullish” stance. That marked a reversal roughly a month after it downgraded its view to “neutral” on Aug. 31. The bank expects that if rates and oil prices stabilize, stronger-than-expected economic data and corporate earnings will be able to reassert themselves.
Mark Wilson, Goldman Sachs’ head of global equity sales, said a Goldilocks economic scenario could emerge and that a year-end rally may start earlier than usual. He argued that investors should prepare for an early rally rather than stay on the sidelines until after the early-November midterm elections. If markets shake off rate concerns after overpricing inflation and the risk of further tightening, stocks could resume their climb.
Wilson also said oil prices could decline if the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement before the early-November elections. He added that artificial intelligence agents could reduce consumer costs over the long term and help lower inflation.
Final Test for the Year-End Rally
Corporate earnings remain the decisive variable. Markets do not appear deeply concerned about corporate fundamentals despite high interest rates. Credit spreads on U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds, or the premium over risk-free rates, have remained near historic lows even as Treasury yields have surged. That means the additional risk premium investors demand to lend to companies over Treasuries has not risen. Bloomberg said there are still no signs that the rate shock is spreading into broader credit stress.
JPMorgan’s U.S. equity strategy team said several months of correction had eased crowded positioning and valuation pressure in technology stocks, leaving more room for a rebound during the third-quarter earnings season. The forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 information technology sector has fallen to around 20 from 26 over the past three months.
JPMorgan said companies that deliver earnings above market expectations may now find it easier than before to be rewarded with share-price gains. It identified AI supply-chain companies such as semiconductor and power firms, small- and mid-cap stocks and banks that could benefit from a soft landing, and technology stocks in South Korea and Taiwan as investment ideas worth watching.
Bin Nan-sae, Hankyung reporter binthere@hankyung.com