Editor: Wu Blockchain

Verified as of September 26, 2026 (ET) | Coverage period: September 28–October 4, 2026 (ET)

The key events to watch this week:

Tuesday, September 29, 9:30 p.m. ET | China’s September Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing and Composite PMIs

China’s manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8 in August, while the non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.0 and the composite output index registered 49.5. The September releases will show whether the recovery in factory demand is spreading to services and construction.

A return to expansion alongside stronger new orders would support the yuan, industrial metals and Chinese equities. Another set of sub-50 readings would reinforce expectations for additional policy support.

Wednesday, September 30, 7:50 p.m. ET | BOJ September Meeting Summary of Opinions and Q3 Tankan Survey

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its September meeting. The Summary of Opinions will reveal how policymakers view inflation, the yen and the pace of further tightening, while the Tankan will update business sentiment, capital-spending plans, pricing expectations and exchange-rate assumptions.

Firm corporate sentiment and hawkish policy views would lift Japanese government bond yields and support the yen. Greater concern about growth would weaken expectations for consecutive rate increases and leave the yen exposed to renewed carry pressure.

Thursday, October 1, 10:00 a.m. ET | U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.6 in August, marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion. Markets will focus on new orders, production, employment and prices to determine whether factory growth remains strong while energy and trade costs continue to lift input prices.

Another strong expansion reading accompanied by elevated prices would reinforce higher-for-longer rate expectations and weigh on Treasuries and richly valued technology stocks. A clear decline in orders and employment would show that tighter financial conditions are reaching underlying demand.

Friday, October 2, expected at 5:00 a.m. ET | Eurozone September Flash CPI

Eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% in August, driven partly by a 14.3% increase in energy prices, while core inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco stood at 2.4%. The September reading will show whether the rebound remains concentrated in energy or is spreading into services and goods.

Persistent energy and core inflation would increase pressure on the ECB to tighten further, affecting European yields, the euro and global growth-stock valuations. Softer underlying inflation would limit further hawkish repricing.

Friday, October 2, 8:30 a.m. ET | U.S. September Employment Report

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The September report must be read across payroll growth, unemployment, average hourly earnings and revisions to determine whether labor demand is still strong enough to support wages and consumption.

Strong hiring and wage growth would raise the probability of further Fed tightening, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. A material slowdown accompanied by downward revisions would ease rate pressure but deepen concerns about consumption and earnings growth.

Bottom line:

China’s PMIs will show whether new orders and services are returning to expansion, while the BOJ readout and Tankan will test whether companies still plan to increase investment after the latest rate hike. Eurozone CPI will reveal whether the 14.3% rise in energy prices is feeding into underlying inflation. U.S. ISM and payrolls are the final pricing anchors: continued strength would lift the expected rate path, while a sharp slowdown in orders and hiring would shift the market’s concern from inflation to growth and earnings.