A Korean trader known as Wonyotti published a "90-day letter" on his market outlook. Here is what it says, and where his numbers sit against today's prices.
His fair value for Bitcoin: 85,000 dollars.
Bitcoin trades at 86,478 right now (Binance perpetuals, +0.19% in 24h). So by his own estimate, price is already at fair value.
He still expects more upside. His reason is not valuation but tape: candles, volume and trend are showing strong bullish signals, so he sees room above fair value.
Ethereum and Solana, he says, trade about 10% below his fair value.
At current prices (ETH 2,758, SOL 118.97) that implies roughly 3,065 and 132 by his framing. That arithmetic is ours, not his; he published the 10% gap, not the targets.
The variable he flags is attention.
Bitcoin has no operating profit, so its price leans on attention and holding demand. In a high-rate world where investors have limited spare capital, he watches relative attention closely.
If money and interest rotate into equities and the current rally stops being the story, he warns the upside can fade quickly.
Nasdaq: he calls it overvalued and refuses to short it.
His argument is historical. Overvalued markets have taken years to break, and shorts betting on valuation alone have sat through two to three years of pain. Overvalued can become extremely overvalued.
What he watches instead: US fiscal policy turning from growth to tightening, and big-tech guidance being cut. He is also skeptical of vendor financing in AI hardware, where a supplier helps fund the customers who buy its chips, because it can flatter revenue.
KOSPI: extremely overvalued against its own history, with one caveat he takes seriously.
Korea has never seen buybacks and shareholder returns on this scale, so some re-rating is deserved. But he doubts the semiconductor cycle holds, expecting demand to soften and competing supply to arrive around late 2027 to early 2028.
His plan there is not to hold. He wants to buy big flushes and sell into strength, repeatedly.
The line worth keeping:
Overvalued does not mean it falls today, and fair value does not mean the rally is over. Price alone is not the signal. Trend, flows and policy sit next to it.
Context: he also released his BitMEX execution records from March 2018 to December 2021, about 1.4 million rows, which can be checked against exchange data.
He states he sells no bots, no signal groups and no courses, and that anyone claiming to be him elsewhere is an impersonator.
Summary of his letter, reported by EconomyBloc on Sept 22. Prices measured on Binance at post time. Not investment advice, and not our forecast.
Source: https://economybloc.com/article/116705/