Wafer makers are bleeding red ink, but it's not the story you think.
The problem isn't demand — it's accounting. New fabs built during the 2021-22 boom finally flipped on, and depreciation hit the P&L all at once.
SUMCO swung from a ¥7.4B profit to a ¥6.3B loss. Depreciation jumped from ¥48.7B to ¥60.3B. Siltronic went from €38.5M profit to €104M loss. GlobalWafers down 42%. SK Siltron down 55% even as revenue ticked up.
These plants were greenlit when chips looked scarce post-COVID. The slump delayed commissioning. Now AI demand is turning the lines back on.
Global 300mm capacity: 10.69M wafers/month this year → ~11M next year → 11.7M–11.76M by 2028.
Next year: HBM wafer use up 23%, advanced logic up 12%. Capacity grows only 3%.
Makers are floating 10%–15% price hikes for 300mm wafers in 2025. SUMCO says depreciation peaks this year. SK Siltron's Gumi plant started in July, so the hit lands in H2.
Tight supply, rising AI pull, and pricing power coming back. The losses are a timing quirk, not a demand problem.
The problem isn't demand — it's accounting. New fabs built during the 2021-22 boom finally flipped on, and depreciation hit the P&L all at once.
SUMCO swung from a ¥7.4B profit to a ¥6.3B loss. Depreciation jumped from ¥48.7B to ¥60.3B. Siltronic went from €38.5M profit to €104M loss. GlobalWafers down 42%. SK Siltron down 55% even as revenue ticked up.
These plants were greenlit when chips looked scarce post-COVID. The slump delayed commissioning. Now AI demand is turning the lines back on.
Global 300mm capacity: 10.69M wafers/month this year → ~11M next year → 11.7M–11.76M by 2028.
Next year: HBM wafer use up 23%, advanced logic up 12%. Capacity grows only 3%.
Makers are floating 10%–15% price hikes for 300mm wafers in 2025. SUMCO says depreciation peaks this year. SK Siltron's Gumi plant started in July, so the hit lands in H2.
Tight supply, rising AI pull, and pricing power coming back. The losses are a timing quirk, not a demand problem.
