I’ve been thinking about something... are we perhaps placing too much importance on the idea of having "missed the bottom"?
Because pinpointing the absolute bottom on the chart might not be the most interesting question right now.
BTC has already risen roughly 35% from its lows. At first glance, that figure seems significant. It makes you feel like, "It’s gone up so much — where is the opportunity to get in now?"
But if you look at the math differently, the picture changes.
Suppose this bull run eventually tops out around $160K. That leaves roughly 100% upside potential from the current market price. I’m not factoring in leverage or a perfect entry here. Even if someone buys relatively close to a local top, it doesn't mean the upside potential is completely gone.
This is the part that strikes me as interesting.
We often behave in the market as if missing a specific price point means missing the entire opportunity. If BTC rises 35% from the bottom, the first thought is, "I'm too late." But when you calculate based on a potential top like $160K, that fear doesn't seem quite so straightforward.
Of course, $160K isn't a guaranteed target; it’s just a calculation based on this specific scenario.
And if BTC pulls back to the $69K–$74K range, things get even more interesting. I view this region as a potential spot for the next "higher low" to form. If the market structure holds there and someone takes a position — like a 2x swing long — a move to $160K could yield roughly 230%–260% upside.
There is a caveat, though.
A "higher low" isn't guaranteed to happen. Markets often dip below what appears to be obvious support to sweep liquidity. So, relying solely on a specific range to establish certainty doesn't feel quite right to me.
Still, the psychology behind it is fascinating.
The trader who missed the bottom might be tempted to chase the price now, while the one who is already in is wondering how much upside remains. Both sides are looking at the same chart, yet the narrative playing out in their minds differs.
I believe this is precisely where many flawed decisions originate.
Just as waiting for the "perfect entry" can cause you to miss the entire move, making an emotional decision based on the thought that "it’s too late now" is equally problematic.
It is true that BTC has rallied 35% from its lows. However, if a larger move still lies ahead, I see no reason to assume the opportunity is lost simply because the initial leg was missed.
Instead, I am focusing on three key factors: the $69K–$74K region, the higher-low structure, and the $160K scenario.
Ultimately, what matters is which narrative the market actually validates.
After all, calculations may look perfect on paper, but price action follows its own path.
