September Hike Odds Hit 50%, Bitcoin ETF Streak Breaks, and Payrolls Next Week Will Decide Everything
Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote was more hawkish than expected — PCE at 4.1% on a six-month basis, financial conditions "not restrictive," and a flat-out rejection of forward guidance. September hike odds jumped to 50%, Bitcoin dipped to $78,700, and the nine-day ETF inflow streak ended with a $201.9M outflow. The yen crossed 160 per dollar to a one-month low. One variable now sits above everything: Bloomberg's Anna Wong says next week's payrolls may print negative — and there is no precedent in modern Fed history for hiking after two consecutive negative readings. Warsh committed to a discipline, not a decision. The data decides.
Warsh Says "We Have Work to Do" on Inflation as September Hike Odds Jump to 50%
Warsh placed inflation at the center of the Fed's agenda at Jackson Hole, citing PCE at 3.7% annually and 4.1% over six months — the recent trend running hotter than the annual figure. He dismissed the summer's softer prints: "They do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." On financial conditions: "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive." Labor markets he called "consistent with full employment." Forward guidance, he said, "has overstayed its welcome." September hike odds jumped from 35% to 50% intraday. Bitcoin dipped to $78,700. Warsh closed with the line that defines everything: "I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision."
Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote was more hawkish than expected — PCE at 4.1% on a six-month basis, financial conditions "not restrictive," and a flat-out rejection of forward guidance. September hike odds jumped to 50%, Bitcoin dipped to $78,700, and the nine-day ETF inflow streak ended with a $201.9M outflow. The yen crossed 160 per dollar to a one-month low. One variable now sits above everything: Bloomberg's Anna Wong says next week's payrolls may print negative — and there is no precedent in modern Fed history for hiking after two consecutive negative readings. Warsh committed to a discipline, not a decision. The data decides.
Warsh Says "We Have Work to Do" on Inflation as September Hike Odds Jump to 50%
Warsh placed inflation at the center of the Fed's agenda at Jackson Hole, citing PCE at 3.7% annually and 4.1% over six months — the recent trend running hotter than the annual figure. He dismissed the summer's softer prints: "They do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." On financial conditions: "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive." Labor markets he called "consistent with full employment." Forward guidance, he said, "has overstayed its welcome." September hike odds jumped from 35% to 50% intraday. Bitcoin dipped to $78,700. Warsh closed with the line that defines everything: "I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision."