Heavy focus tonight is on Powell's Jackson Hole speech at 10 PM, but most people are watching the wrong signal — it's not about a September hike/cut, since no change is already priced in. The real question is how the Fed reframes the inflation outlook and future policy path.

Data is mixed with no case for easing: jobless claims keep falling (labor market solid), while July PCE held at 3.7% for a second month and core PCE stayed above 3% — nowhere near the 2% target. Inflation simply hasn't cooled, so the Fed has little room to ease.

Powell likely won't commit on September, but he'll set the tone: stay tight on sticky inflation, or tolerate it to protect growth/stability. Those two paths point to very different market reactions.

If the tone is hawkish and inflation risk gets reiterated: dollar and Treasury yields likely bounce, pressuring BTC's recent rally back toward $80K — a rally built mainly on 8 straight days of spot ETF inflows totaling $2.8B.