Today’s Jackson Hole appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is one of the most important macro events for Bitcoin this week. His speech at 10 AM ET will directly influence market expectations heading into the September FOMC meeting. At the moment, traders are pricing in a 66.3% probability of a pause and a 33.7% chance of a rate hike, reflecting uncertainty around inflation trends and labor‑market cooling. For $BTC , the market reaction will depend heavily on how Warsh frames policy risk. A dovish tone would reduce forward rate expectations, improve liquidity conditions, and strengthen bullish momentum. A hawkish stance would tighten financial conditions and likely pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin. Volatility is highly likely as traders reposition around incoming macro signals.