BREAKING: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole in 5 days — Friday, August 28, 10 AM ET. His first keynote as chair. Ever.
Current policy: 3.50%–3.75%. September rate decision 19 days out.
69% of fund managers expect neutral tone (Bank of America). Neutral is priced in. It's the surprise that moves markets.
Backdrop is messy:
• Treasury bond intervention fizzled in 48 hours
• 30-year yields near 19-year high
• FOMC fractured by most hawkish dissent in nearly a decade
If Warsh signals cuts → stocks rally, yields fall, gold and $BTC catch a bid.
If he stays hawkish → expect the opposite. Hard.
If he gives nothing concrete → chop until September.
$BTC just posted its best week in years heading into this. Friday decides if that momentum survives contact with the Fed Chair's actual words.
This is the macro event. Mark it. Trade it. Don't sleep on it.
Current policy: 3.50%–3.75%. September rate decision 19 days out.
69% of fund managers expect neutral tone (Bank of America). Neutral is priced in. It's the surprise that moves markets.
Backdrop is messy:
• Treasury bond intervention fizzled in 48 hours
• 30-year yields near 19-year high
• FOMC fractured by most hawkish dissent in nearly a decade
If Warsh signals cuts → stocks rally, yields fall, gold and $BTC catch a bid.
If he stays hawkish → expect the opposite. Hard.
If he gives nothing concrete → chop until September.
$BTC just posted its best week in years heading into this. Friday decides if that momentum survives contact with the Fed Chair's actual words.
This is the macro event. Mark it. Trade it. Don't sleep on it.