VanEck: Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase by November — but proceed with caution Asset manager VanEck told investors on Aug. 18 that Bitcoin could be moving into an accumulation window as early as September–November if the current cycle follows historical patterns. The firm’s latest analysis finds eight of its 12 “capitulation” indicators were still in extreme readings as of Aug. 12, and it measures the current correction as the tenth month since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. What VanEck is looking at - Signal rules: VanEck marks an indicator “active” when its latest reading sits in an extreme historical percentile — typically the bottom 15% (or the top 10% when a high reading signals stress). - Drawdown threshold: Price drawdown is treated separately: VanEck flags this when Bitcoin has dropped at least 35% from its cycle peak. By their metric Bitcoin was ~49% below the October high in the firm’s analysis, but that level ranked only in the 35th percentile of historical drawdowns. - Metric nuance: If the drawdown were judged by the same percentile rule as other indicators, total active signals would fall from eight to seven. VanEck defends the separate drawdown threshold by noting higher institutional ownership and spot ETP demand this cycle could make bear markets shallower than in the past. Context and historical caution - VanEck stresses this framework is not a deterministic price forecast — the firm discloses it holds Bitcoin and warns its forward-return backtests rely on a small number of heavily overlapping observations. - Past Bitcoin bear markets produced far deeper troughs (drawdowns of 78%–94%), so any hope for a milder downturn this cycle remains an assumption rather than a certainty. What the backtest shows - When 8–12 indicators were in capitulation territory, average returns were: - +12.8% over the next 90 days (versus a 15.2% baseline for comparable periods) - +32% over 180 days (versus a 36.3% baseline) - Outperformance only appeared across the one-year horizon — but VanEck says that one-year result is based on 115 overlapping observation days that reflect a small number of distinct market episodes, so it assigns limited weight to that finding. - Takeaway: capitulation readings can signal late-cycle conditions, but they don’t reliably pinpoint the exact market bottom and allow for extended sideways trading before any durable recovery. Flows and market behavior - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded roughly $663 million in net inflows over the 30-day window VanEck measured — about 10,400 BTC — reversing roughly $2.4 billion of outflows from the prior month. - Flows were uneven after VanEck’s period: a $385.2 million outflow in the week ending Aug. 14 was followed by $297.5 million of inflows on Aug. 17 and $189.3 million on Aug. 18 (combined $486.8 million), partially reversing the earlier withdrawals. - Price: Bitcoin traded near $64,250 on Aug. 19 — above VanEck’s Aug. 11 closing reference of $63,549 but still under the 200-day moving average. Long-term holder behavior - According to VanEck’s Glassnode-based data, coins held longer than one year declined by about 356,534 BTC over 30 days. Long-term holdings fell 2.9% to 11.84 million BTC, representing 59.1% of circulating supply. - All six long-term age cohorts contracted. The one-to-two-year group saw the largest drawdown (~156,000 BTC); coins older than 10 years fell only ~4,000 BTC, implying the longest-held wallets stayed relatively inactive. - VanEck notes some movement may reflect wallet-security migrations after incidents like the Coldcard failure (and the related $89 million drain), but security-driven transfers are hard to verify and confirmed losses were far smaller than total movement of aged coins. Exchange inflow breakdowns by coin age would help clarify whether those coins went to trading venues or were shuffled between private wallets. The near-term test - September–November is the window VanEck flags as the next meaningful test of its cycle framework. Signs that would support an “accumulation” thesis: sustained spot demand, higher trading volumes, and stabilization in long-term holder balances. - Conversely, renewed distribution or fresh fund outflows would undermine the accumulation narrative. Bottom line VanEck’s indicators suggest late-cycle capitulation is active, and historical patterns point to a possible transition into accumulation around September–November — but the firm’s own analysis is cautious. The signals are informative for timing and sentiment, not precise bottom-callers, and the evidence allows for both a gradual recovery or extended range-bound trading before a durable uptrend resumes. Disclosure: This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news