A lot of traders don’t realize Bitcoin often turns bullish after the crowd feels “late,” not when everyone is confidently calling the bottom.
The danger is buying every green candle like the bear market is over, then watching price chop you to pieces. I’ve seen this in past cycles: hope comes back fast, but confirmation usually takes longer.
One signal worth respecting is the STH/LTH Realized Price Market Signal. STH means short-term holders, coins held for under 155 days. LTH means long-term holders, coins held for more than 155 days. Their realized price shows the average cost basis of each group.
In previous major cycle transitions, $BTC didn’t just bounce. The market showed a deeper shift, where newer buyers started absorbing supply at stronger levels and the short-term holder cost basis began behaving like real demand, not just panic relief. That structure has often helped separate a bear market rally from the early stages of a bull trend.
Right now, according to this signal, the classic “Bear End to Bull Start” setup still hasn’t fully appeared. That doesn’t mean $BTC, $ETH, or $BNB can’t rally, but it does mean veterans stay careful with size, entries, and exits until the data confirms what emotions want to believe.
Are you treating this market as accumulation, or still waiting for stronger confirmation?
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #OnChainData
The danger is buying every green candle like the bear market is over, then watching price chop you to pieces. I’ve seen this in past cycles: hope comes back fast, but confirmation usually takes longer.
One signal worth respecting is the STH/LTH Realized Price Market Signal. STH means short-term holders, coins held for under 155 days. LTH means long-term holders, coins held for more than 155 days. Their realized price shows the average cost basis of each group.
In previous major cycle transitions, $BTC didn’t just bounce. The market showed a deeper shift, where newer buyers started absorbing supply at stronger levels and the short-term holder cost basis began behaving like real demand, not just panic relief. That structure has often helped separate a bear market rally from the early stages of a bull trend.
Right now, according to this signal, the classic “Bear End to Bull Start” setup still hasn’t fully appeared. That doesn’t mean $BTC, $ETH, or $BNB can’t rally, but it does mean veterans stay careful with size, entries, and exits until the data confirms what emotions want to believe.
Are you treating this market as accumulation, or still waiting for stronger confirmation?
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #OnChainData