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Bitcoin has never lacked bold price forecasts, but timing has always been the hardest part to get right. As the market oscillates between fear and fragile hope, a new long-term outlook from a respected technical analyst has reignited debate about where Bitcoin is headed next—and, more importantly, when. The headline number is attention-grabbing: $145,000 per Bitcoin. Yet the real substance of the forecast lies not in optimism, but in restraint. According to this analysis, Bitcoin is unlikely to reach that level until the current market cycle fully resets, a process that could take years rather than months. In a market conditioned to chase short-term rallies, this perspective offers a sobering reminder of how cyclical Bitcoin truly is.
At the heart of the argument is the idea that Bitcoin has already transitioned into the early phase of a broader bear cycle. This conclusion is not based on daily volatility or headline-driven sentiment, but on high-timeframe technical signals that historically define entire market eras. Quarterly charts, which smooth out short-term noise and highlight structural trends, suggest that Bitcoin’s macro momentum has shifted. One of the most important signals supporting this view is a bearish cross in the Relative Vigor Index, or RVGI, on the quarterly timeframe. Unlike fast-moving indicators used for short-term trading, the RVGI at this scale has consistently marked turning points between bull and bear phases across Bitcoin’s history.
What makes this signal especially compelling is its timing within previous cycles. In past market transitions, quarterly RVGI bearish crosses did not appear near bottoms, when pessimism was already fully priced in. Instead, they emerged early in bear markets, often when optimism still lingered and prices had not yet fully corrected. Each occurrence followed a remarkably consistent rhythm, appearing roughly every fifteen to sixteen quarters. This cadence aligns closely with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, reinforcing the idea that these signals are not random, but deeply embedded in the asset’s long-term behavior.
Historical patterns show that once this bearish cross appears, Bitcoin typically enters an extended period of decline or consolidation lasting about four quarters. During that time, prices may experience sharp rallies, but those moves tend to be corrective rather than the start of a new secular uptrend. If this pattern holds, the current cycle implies that Bitcoin’s next major bottom may not arrive until late 2026. That projection stands in stark contrast to the more optimistic narratives that expect a rapid recovery driven by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, or macroeconomic easing.
Momentum indicators further reinforce the cautious outlook. On the same quarterly timeframe, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index peaked one quarter before the RVGI bearish cross, a behavior that has repeated across multiple cycles. Even more telling is where that RSI peak occurred: at a long-term declining trendline that has capped momentum for nearly seven years. Each time Bitcoin has been rejected at this level, it has signaled the exhaustion of macro bullish momentum and preceded prolonged corrections. The implication is not that Bitcoin’s long-term story is broken, but that the market may have already consumed the bullish fuel available for this cycle.
This perspective reframes how recent price action should be interpreted. Short-term rallies, while tempting to chase, may represent countertrend moves rather than the early stages of a sustained bull market. Historically, Bitcoin has not made new all-time highs in the period between a quarterly RVGI bearish cross and the eventual cycle bottom. Instead, it has spent months, and sometimes years, rebuilding structural support and resetting investor expectations. In that context, expectations for explosive upside in the near term may be premature.
From a price structure standpoint, the outlook remains consistent with this broader thesis. Bitcoin is currently trading well below key long-term trend indicators, reinforcing the idea that the market is still in a corrective or consolidative phase. The 50-day simple moving average sits noticeably above spot price, while the 200-day average is even higher, creating a technical configuration that typically reflects bearish or neutral conditions rather than the start of a strong uptrend. When the shorter-term average remains below the longer-term one, it signals that downside pressure has not yet fully resolved.
That said, the picture is not entirely bleak. Momentum indicators on lower timeframes suggest that selling pressure is beginning to ease. The 14-day RSI hovering just above oversold levels indicates that while momentum remains weak, the intensity of selling has moderated. In previous cycles, similar conditions often preceded periods of sideways consolidation or short-lived rebounds. However, such developments should be viewed as part of a broader basing process rather than definitive evidence that a new bull market has begun.
This is where the $145,000 target comes back into focus. Rather than being a near-term objective, it is positioned as a milestone for the next bull cycle entirely. If Bitcoin does indeed find a macro bottom around October 2026, historical precedent suggests that a prolonged accumulation phase would follow. These accumulation periods are rarely dramatic. They are characterized by low volatility, fading public interest, and a general sense of boredom or frustration among investors. Yet they are precisely the conditions under which long-term value is rebuilt.
Only after such a reset does Bitcoin typically regain the momentum needed to challenge previous highs and establish new ones. In this framework, late 2027 or 2028 emerges as the most realistic window for Bitcoin to reach $145,000. By then, quarterly momentum indicators would need to turn decisively higher, signaling that the next secular uptrend is underway. This timeline may feel distant, especially in a market accustomed to rapid cycles and viral narratives, but it aligns closely with Bitcoin’s historical behavior.
There are clear benefits to this long-term, cycle-aware perspective. It encourages investors to separate short-term price fluctuations from structural trends and to manage expectations accordingly. By recognizing where Bitcoin sits within its broader cycle, market participants can avoid the emotional extremes that often lead to poor decision-making. It also underscores the importance of patience, a quality that has historically been rewarded in Bitcoin more consistently than aggressive timing strategies.
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