$ SOL — Eng so‘nggi tahlil [2026-yil 25-iyun]*
*1-grafik: Narx harakati*
*2-grafik: Texnik ko‘rsatkichlar + On-chain Perps*
*Narx va tuzilma*
- *Narx*: ∼$66-$70, -2.7% dan -5.4% gacha 24 soatda, -6% dan -7.5% gacha 7 kunda
- *Bozor kapitallashuvi*: ∼$39 mlrd-$40 mlrd, #7 kripto reyting
- *Ta’minot*: 628M umumiyning 580M aylanmada
- *Hajm*: $4.3 mlrd 24 soatda
*Uni nima harakatlantiryapti*
1. *Risk-off bosimi*: Iyun MTD -19.8%, YTD -46%. May o‘rtalarida $98 cho‘qqi → iyun pastida $62-$63. 2025-yanvardagi $295 ATH dan -75%. Eng yuqori-beta asosiy aktivlardan biri, eng qattiq zarba olayapti
2. *Texnik tutilish*: $75-$76 oralig‘idan pastda tiqilib qolgan (200-kunlik EMA). 50-kunlik $71.6 tayanch, 200-kunlik $74.3 qarshilik. RSI 40 neytral. $65 dan pastga tushish = $50-$55; $75 ni qayta olish = $80 testi
3. *Spot vs perps bo‘linishi*: Umumiy on-chain DEX ulushining 25%i, 0.4-1.6 bps spredlar. Lekin perp OI HyperLiquid’ga nisbatan 47% ga orqada. Yetakchi trejading (leader scheduling) = kafolatlangan bekor qilish ustuvorligi yo‘q → spredlar kengroq
4. *Katalizatorlar vs risklar*: Bull = Firedancer 1M TPS, Alpenglow instant finality, staking ETF’lar, Franklin RWA. Bear = SEC “ro‘yxatdan o‘tmagan qimmatli qog‘oz” degan xavotir, memecoin fee’lar qulash i, FTX unlocks, L2 raqobati
*Asosiy darajalar*
1. *Tayanch*: $65 → $60 → $50-$55 (buzilsa)
2. *Qarshilik*: $72 → $75 kunlik qayta olish → $82 ta’minot zonasi → $97 kritik
3. *Maqsadlar*: CoinCodex prognozi $90-$104 (EOY). Copilot AI $250-$400 bull, $600 “blow-off”. Asosiy ssenariy $207-$311, agar ETF + Firedancer ishga tushsa
*Yakuni*: $68 atrofida SOL iyun -20% dan keyin konsolidatsiyalanayapti. Spot kuchli, perps esa zaif. $65 ushlab qolinsa = yengillik rallisi, yo‘qotsa = $50 testi. ETF + Firedancer makro bilan birga hal qiluvchi bo‘ladi.
Yuqori-TPS L1 taqqoslari uchun SOL’ni SUI yoki APT bilan solishtirib ko‘raylikmi?
#HYPEFalls17%FromRecordHigh #PredictionMarketVolumeHitsRecordHigh #CircleToPartnerNomuraForInstantFXSettlement #TaikoSaysL2IncidentNoUserFundLoss
*1-grafik: Narx harakati*
*2-grafik: Texnik ko‘rsatkichlar + On-chain Perps*
*Narx va tuzilma*
- *Narx*: ∼$66-$70, -2.7% dan -5.4% gacha 24 soatda, -6% dan -7.5% gacha 7 kunda
- *Bozor kapitallashuvi*: ∼$39 mlrd-$40 mlrd, #7 kripto reyting
- *Ta’minot*: 628M umumiyning 580M aylanmada
- *Hajm*: $4.3 mlrd 24 soatda
*Uni nima harakatlantiryapti*
1. *Risk-off bosimi*: Iyun MTD -19.8%, YTD -46%. May o‘rtalarida $98 cho‘qqi → iyun pastida $62-$63. 2025-yanvardagi $295 ATH dan -75%. Eng yuqori-beta asosiy aktivlardan biri, eng qattiq zarba olayapti
2. *Texnik tutilish*: $75-$76 oralig‘idan pastda tiqilib qolgan (200-kunlik EMA). 50-kunlik $71.6 tayanch, 200-kunlik $74.3 qarshilik. RSI 40 neytral. $65 dan pastga tushish = $50-$55; $75 ni qayta olish = $80 testi
3. *Spot vs perps bo‘linishi*: Umumiy on-chain DEX ulushining 25%i, 0.4-1.6 bps spredlar. Lekin perp OI HyperLiquid’ga nisbatan 47% ga orqada. Yetakchi trejading (leader scheduling) = kafolatlangan bekor qilish ustuvorligi yo‘q → spredlar kengroq
4. *Katalizatorlar vs risklar*: Bull = Firedancer 1M TPS, Alpenglow instant finality, staking ETF’lar, Franklin RWA. Bear = SEC “ro‘yxatdan o‘tmagan qimmatli qog‘oz” degan xavotir, memecoin fee’lar qulash i, FTX unlocks, L2 raqobati
*Asosiy darajalar*
1. *Tayanch*: $65 → $60 → $50-$55 (buzilsa)
2. *Qarshilik*: $72 → $75 kunlik qayta olish → $82 ta’minot zonasi → $97 kritik
3. *Maqsadlar*: CoinCodex prognozi $90-$104 (EOY). Copilot AI $250-$400 bull, $600 “blow-off”. Asosiy ssenariy $207-$311, agar ETF + Firedancer ishga tushsa
*Yakuni*: $68 atrofida SOL iyun -20% dan keyin konsolidatsiyalanayapti. Spot kuchli, perps esa zaif. $65 ushlab qolinsa = yengillik rallisi, yo‘qotsa = $50 testi. ETF + Firedancer makro bilan birga hal qiluvchi bo‘ladi.
Yuqori-TPS L1 taqqoslari uchun SOL’ni SUI yoki APT bilan solishtirib ko‘raylikmi?
#HYPEFalls17%FromRecordHigh #PredictionMarketVolumeHitsRecordHigh #CircleToPartnerNomuraForInstantFXSettlement #TaikoSaysL2IncidentNoUserFundLoss
