On October 9, the "calm before the storm" we predicted came as expected, and whether the Grayscale case can successfully lead the market to turn around is still a hot topic in the market. According to the latest tweet from Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, the SEC is actively communicating with the Grayscale issuer, which has never happened before. From this point of view, the SEC's attitude towards the Grayscale case may not be too harsh, which is undoubtedly a major positive for the launch of the BTC spot ETF and will help restore investors' confidence in cryptocurrencies.

However, it is worth noting that according to the fund movement of Tether and other institutions, they have not entered the market to buy cryptocurrencies before the deadline, and are obviously still waiting. This may mean that in the eyes of institutions, the market is still likely to fall, or they are still waiting for a clearer "entry signal". This phenomenon may be closely related to the current lack of liquidity, and the main cause of the reduction in liquidity this time is the surge in crude oil prices.

Under the influence of the global situation, the crypto market has also seen large fluctuations in trading volume. However, Bitcoin's safe-haven properties are still in play, driving BTC spot trading. On October 9, data released by Santiment showed that more than 10,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, the largest outflow since September 7. At the same time, the number of BTC held by unique addresses has fallen to a six-week low, and the trading price is hovering below $28,000.

In addition to the growth of some bullish expectations, the escalation of armed conflict between Israel and Hamas (Palestine Liberation Organization) has also become the main driving force for the rise in BTC prices. During this period, BTC has once again become the focus of attention and has become the most convenient channel for residents in war-torn areas to "transfer" assets. This not only demonstrates the "safe-haven property" of Bitcoin, but also increases its "scarcity" in the market.

As for the cause of the conflict, we will not discuss it for now. But it is foreseeable that no matter what the cause is, it will not affect the result of Saudi Arabia's increase in crude oil production in early 2024. In the long run, this will have a positive effect on easing inflationary pressure and will also help restore market liquidity. The crypto market will also benefit from this, and the improvement in liquidity may accelerate the arrival of the bull market. However, this has also raised concerns about the chances of the Democratic Party, the ruling party in the United States, winning the 24-year election, as well as concerns about the intensified partisan struggles that the cryptocurrency bill may trigger and the stability of the crypto market.

Finally, we have to sigh at the strength of our motherland! The "anti-money laundering" investigation in Singapore (reportedly intentionally conducted by the domestic "high-level officials") has curbed the outflow of domestic "hot money" to a certain extent, providing strong financial support for the development of Hong Kong's economy, including the emerging encryption industry.