Kralice 1

Bitcoin bugün verdiğim 62.500$ seviyesine geldi. Peki sırada ne var? (https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-gyaMg-JZOE ) $BTC bu bölgeden tepki verdi ama henüz dip geldi diyemeyiz. Düşüşün arkasında birkaç başlık birlikte çalışıyor: - Petrol ve tahvil faizleri yükseldi. Bu durum enflasyonun yeniden hızlanabileceği ve Fed’in daha sıkı kalabileceği endişesini artırdı. - Manşet PPI aylık bazda değişmedi fakat çekirdek üretici enflasyonu %0,4 arttı. Yani maliyet baskısı tamamen bitmiş değil. - Perakende satışlar %0,6 geriledi, Michigan tüketici güveni beklentinin altında kaldı. Büyüme yavaşlarken enflasyon riski sürerse kripto açısından zor bir kombinasyon oluşur. - ETF akışları yeniden negatife döndü. Fiyat düşerken kurumsal talebin satışları karşılayamaması önemli. - Strategy–MSCI tartışması yeni bir risk yarattı. Strategy’nin doğrudan BTC satması gerekmiyor. Fakat endekslerden çıkarılması, MSTR’de pasif fon satışına ve şirketin sermaye toplama kapasitesinin zayıflamasına yol açabilir. Grafikte 62.500 ilk desteğimizdi ve çalıştı. Bu seviye kapanışlarla kaybedilirse 60.000 dolar bölgesini beklerim. Benim kısa vadeli yönüm AŞAĞI. Fakat desteğin (62,5K) vereceği tepkiye dikkat edin lütfen.

Bugün Bitcoin’de tepki var ama ben henüz “düşüş bitti” diyemeyiz. Pazartesi başlayan satışın nedenlerini hatırlayalım: • Strategy 1.690 BTC sattı. • BTC 65.150 dolardan yine reddedildi. • Spot ETF’lerden 163,1 milyon dolar çıktı. • Kritik desteklerin kaybedilmesi stopları ve kaldıraçlı long kapanışlarını tetikledi. • Piyasa bugünkü ABD CPI verisi öncesinde risk azalttı. Şimdi saatlik grafikte görünüm toparlanıyor. BTC 63.200 dolar çevresinden tepki aldı, 63.900 seviyesini geri kazandı. RSI yükseliyor ve MACD kısa vadede iyileşiyor. Fakat günlük grafikte yaklaşık 64.500 dolardaki 50 EMA hâlâ direnç. Bu seviyenin üzerinde günlük kapanış görmeden hareketi trend dönüşü değil, tepki yükselişi olarak değerlendiriyorum. Metaplanet’in 3.881 $BTC taşıması da satış anlamına gelmiyor. Bu, şimdilik şirketin kendi cüzdanları arasındaki bir transfer. Borsaya giriş veya resmî satış açıklaması görmeden korku üretmem. Bugün 15.30’da ABD CPI açıklanacak: • Enflasyon düşük gelirse 64.500 ve ardından 65.000–65.200 yeniden test edilebilir. • Özellikle çekirdek enflasyon yüksek gelirse faiz baskısı artabilir; 63.900 altında 63.200 ve 62.500 bölgeleri yeniden gündeme gelir. Benim kısa vadeli yönüm yatay ve yüksek oynaklık bekliyorum.

Why Is Bitcoin Falling Again Today? ⤵️ I’m not only linking this move to tomorrow’s CPI data release. The selling streak that started yesterday is continuing today: - Strategy 1.690 $BTC sold. This sale sparked concerns: “Will more follow?” - Bitcoin was rejected again around $65,150. Buyers failed to break through resistance. Stop orders and leveraged long liquidations kicked in, accelerating the drop. But the RSI on the chart is nearing the oversold zone; a short-term bounce could happen. - On Monday, $163.1 million flowed out of spot crypto ETFs. As the price fell, institutional demand wasn’t able to absorb the selling pressure. - It appears that companies’ interest is shifting from Bitcoin to AI investment. BTC’s marginal institutional buyer is weakening for now. - Tomorrow, U.S. CPI data will be released. Ahead of the report, we’re seeing position reduction and risk trimming. - There’s also a longer-term risk on the geopolitical side that we shouldn’t overlook: it’s being assessed that Tehran believes time is working in its favor and is trying to increase pressure on Washington ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November by keeping energy prices high via the Strait of Hormuz. The chain of effects here is quite clear: - If Hormuz is closed or restricted, oil stays high. - If oil rises, U.S. inflation re-accelerates. - If inflation rises, the Fed keeps rates higher for longer and may even consider a new hike. - In that case, the dollar and bond yields strengthen while Bitcoin and other risk assets come under pressure. If tensions between Iran and the U.S. drag on, the risk to crypto shouldn’t be underestimated. On the other hand, reaching an agreement and fully reopening Hormuz could quickly reverse the entire scenario. My short-term bias is DOWN. I’m waiting for confirmation from the price action after tomorrow’s CPI at 15:30.

Why did Bitcoin drop quickly? (I added the chart) • Strategy 1.690 $BTC sold more. The market priced in concerns that the company may continue selling. • Bitcoin was rejected again around $65,150. Buyers couldn’t break through resistance. • The $64,700 and $64,400 supports were lost. Stop orders and the closing of leveraged long positions accelerated the decline. • Grayscale withdrew its ETF application requests for Cardano, Polkadot, and Hedera from SEC review. This development weakened overall crypto risk appetite. • The U.S. strategic oil reserve hit the lowest level since 1983. This increases oil and inflation risk, and therefore the likelihood that the Fed stays tight. • Peter Schiff’s “buy Bitcoin” statement has increased fear.

We’ve started a new week—have a great one! Let’s see how this week will go for cryptocurrencies... The CLARITY Act has been postponed to fall. Normally, this would be discouraging news in the short term, but the market is currently pricing in ETF demand more than the regulatory calendar, along with Wednesday’s inflation data. News is circulating about Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital— $MARA — allegedly selling 23,093 $BTC worth over $1.6 billion! The real test for Bitcoin will be on Wednesday: • If CPI comes in low, fears of further rate hikes may ease and the rally could continue. • If CPI comes in high, the dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen; any move above 65K could be quickly reversed. • Before the data, it’s not surprising that the market throws sharp wicks in both directions—volatility could be high, so be careful! My direction for today is clear: FLAT.

Weekly recap for Bitcoin ⤵️ This week, the most important development for me on the Bitcoin side wasn’t the price—it was ETF demand. $BTC climbed back above $65k, but the real standout was that spot ETFs finished all five trading days of the week in positive territory. A large portion of the roughly $853 million in weekly inflows went to BlackRock’s IBIT fund. In the last uninterrupted five-day streak of positive ETF flows, Bitcoin had first accelerated and then continued its rally in the following weeks. However, that move didn’t come in a straight line; after strong inflows, profit-taking and sharp pullbacks happened too. So I’m not saying, “ETFs are positive, and now we only go up.” But the return of institutional demand shows that the latest upswing wasn’t just a short squeeze. What has me thinking is this: despite such strong inflows, the price is still moving in a controlled way. That means there must be significant selling on the other side that’s meeting the ETF demand. Buyers have strengthened, but sellers haven’t left the table yet. 📅 In the new week, my focus will be on the U.S. CPI to be released on Wednesday. Last week’s weak employment data supported the market. If inflation also comes in low this week, then macro relief alongside ETF demand could work in the same direction. But if CPI comes in hot, expectations for rate hikes would regain strength, and the FOMO above $65k could quickly fade. My direction is still UP. As long as the 50 EMA holds, I’ll keep upside potential in front; if it’s lost, we can consider that not a new trend, but a reaction rally.

🟢 It is said that there is a whale accumulation of approximately 20,000 BTC. Positive, but I wouldn’t count it as a guaranteed rise on its own. Some of the large addresses could belong to exchanges or custodial companies. In the chart, the key point for me is the daily 50 EMA. As long as this zone is preserved, my expectation for the weekend direction is cautiously upward. First, I want to see nearby resistances broken, and then volume confirming it. $BTC $ETH

ETFs were POSITIVE ALL WEEK! 😍 About $865 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs over five days. This is the kind of institutional demand continuity we’ve been wanting to see for a long time. In addition, $BTC has moved above the 50-day EMA and, for now, is using that level as support. 📅 So what happened the last time ETFs were positive for five days in a row? During the April 20–24 week, inflows of roughly $824 million were recorded, and in the same period Bitcoin rose from about $71,000 to $78,000. The move continued into the following weeks, reaching as high as $82,000, but it couldn’t hold due to macro pressure and selling. In other words, past examples tell us this: continuous ETF demand can fuel a rally, but by itself it doesn’t guarantee a trend reversal. 🟢 There’s talk of a whale accumulation of around 20,000 BTC. Positive, but I wouldn’t treat it as a guaranteed buy-the-dip signal on its own. Some of those large addresses may belong to exchanges or custody providers. The key point for me on the chart is the daily 50 EMA. As long as this zone is preserved, my expectation for the weekend direction remains cautiously upward. I want to see nearby resistance levels break first, and then confirm it with volume. There won’t be ETF purchases over the weekend and liquidity will drop. So instead of chasing sudden spikes, I’ll be watching whether support holds during pullbacks. Direction still UP!

Bitcoin today rose above $65k, but you need to read the reason for the move correctly. In the US, while more than 80k jobs are expected to be added, the economy lost 23k jobs. The market priced this as “the Fed’s rate hikes are getting harder,” and BTC quickly surged. The fact that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% shows the report wasn’t a complete disaster. In other words, we have more of a controlled cooling story that could reduce Fed pressure than a recession panic. The most important change on the chart is that the daily 50 EMA is being attempted to be reclaimed. The hourly rising channel is still preserved, volume increased, and MACD momentum supports it. However, the hourly RSI is above 70. So I won’t do FOMO here and chase the move. The scenario I’m watching: if the 64,700–64,800 area holds as support, I’ll expect the upside to continue. If the 65,300–65,600 zone is broken, 66k could come into play. If price falls back below 64,300, the probability of the post-data breakout turning into a trap increases. I think it’s also important that the ETFs are positive again on Thursday. Because that suggests the move isn’t just about short positions closing, and that there is also spot demand. The CLARITY Act being postponed to September is negative, but today’s macro data overshadowed that news. The transfer of 210k BTC after Coldcard is not a sell-off by itself; the key is to look at how much of it actually ends up in exchanges. My bias today is upward. Still, after the data, I’ll trust the daily close above the 50 EMA rather than getting carried away by excitement.

Bitcoin is testing the $65,000 level again today, and this time the rise is backed by ETF demand as well. On Wednesday, $296.2 million flowed into crypto ETFs. It matters to me that the first three trading days of the week have been positive; it shows this move is supported not only by leveraged trades, but also by real spot demand. The macro picture, however, is not entirely comfortable. ADP employment came in at just 44K. This suggests the labor market is cooling and the Fed may have less room to raise rates. But the ISM Services Prices Index rose to 70.3. So while employment is cooling, service inflation is still hot. Therefore, we shouldn’t downplay Warsh and Cook’s message: “If inflation stays high, we can raise rates.” In the $BTC chart, higher lows are holding. The channel support around 64,400, and the 65,200–65,300 area is the test for the next short-term stretch. My bias today is UP.

Bitcoin’s price action changed during the day. In the morning there was indecision around 64K. Now $BTC defended the 63.9K area several times, broke above 64.2K, and has started forming higher lows on the hourly chart. My roadmap: • Positive if it stays above 64.2K • First significant hurdle at 64.5K • Main resistance zone at 64.8K–65K. RSI is around 60 and not in overbought territory. On the MACD side, momentum has not yet turned explosive. So I view the rise positively, but let’s not get caught up in FOMO.

Behind the decline in SpaceX shares is the fact that 911.5 million shares will be made available for sale. This could significantly increase the float and create selling pressure on SpaceX. However, there’s no verified data showing that the money coming out is directly rotating into crypto. Investors selling shares could move into cash, bonds, or other stocks. So it’s too early to say, “SpaceX is falling, and the money is coming to BTC.”

ETF inflows continue, and if 63.9K holds, my short-term direction is UP. However, until 65K breaks, I see this not as a major trend reversal, but as a strengthening reaction move.

Monday ETFs came in positive, US stocks were strong, and oil eased on expectations of a Hormuz deal. 🟢 Normally, these are headlines that support risk appetite. On the Bitcoin chart, we got a good reaction from the 62K area. A turnaround above 63.3K is a good sign. Now the real issue is the 64.2K region. If we see it hold above 64.2K, we can assume the market is breathing a sigh of relief. After that, the daily 50 EMA comes back onto the table. (It has currently slipped to around the 64.5k level.) However, if $BTC again rejects from the 64.2K area, then any rise will remain just a reaction. Today, we also have the JOLTS data. If employment comes in strong, Fed pressure could increase again. If the data comes in weak but controlled, it may give BTC short-term relief. (To be released at 17:00 Turkish time.) My direction: for now, flat to mildly up. We should monitor the data and the reaction that will be given at resistance.

In my opinion, today’s most important news is Strategy’s sales. Saylor’s company sold 1,638 $BTC last week. About 104.7 million dollars. Normally, when we hear “Strategy,” we always think of a “BTC buyer.” But the picture may be changing now. Because the company didn’t just sell BTC. It also increased cash by selling shares, carried out a STRC buyback, and raised its USD reserves to $4 billion. This tells us the following: - We can’t say Strategy is leaving Bitcoin. - But for them, BTC is no longer just a “accumulated asset.” - It’s an asset that can be sold if needed to preserve the capital structure. Saylor has long been seen in the market as an “infinite buyer.” If investors start pricing him as a “seller when necessary,” that would put pressure on BTC. The macro side isn’t very comfortable either. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected. So the economy is still resilient. 🟢 What’s the good side then? Oil dropped sharply. A pause in attacks on the US-Iran front eased inflation fears somewhat. That could be supportive for BTC. My BTC bias today: DOWNWARD-FIXED.

Bitcoin reacted from the 62K level. This looks like “short-term relief.” Because 64.2K was lost. Once support is lost, it starts to act as resistance at the same level. So we need to remove our bullish expectations unless $BTC returns above 64,200$ . There are a few reasons for today’s pressure: - The Coldcard security incident is growing. The loss has reached the 70–90 million dollar range. People are moving their BTC to exchanges. - Friday’s ETFs closed negative. This makes it harder on the institutional side to say “immediate aggressive buying is coming.” - The Hormuz issue is still not clear. Trump says it’s “open,” while the Iranian side continues to send messages of control and closure. The oil risk hasn’t been taken off the table. - On the Fed side, discussions are about expectations for rate hikes. That is the combination we like the least for BTC: a strong dollar, high interest rates, and low risk appetite. What am I looking at on the chart? In addition to what we discussed, below, 62K is very important. If that breaks, panic could increase. My bias: FIXED-DOWNWARD. Sometimes the best trade is to wait for the market to prove itself.

July has ended, and even though Bitcoin recovered during the month, it did not give a clear bullish signal. But early in the month there was a high level of panic. The 58K-60K range was being discussed. Then $BTC responded nicely, tried to break above 65K, but selling came in around the daily 50 EMA. In the past few days, meanwhile: - The 64.2K support was lost. - The ETFs closed negative on Friday. - On top of that, news of a Coldcard security vulnerability came out. - After the Fed meeting, the macro pressure has not fully disappeared yet. What are we seeing on the Bitcoin chart? - A reaction came from the 62.5K area, but for now it looks to me like only a temporary response. - To restore balance, the price should be seen again above 64.2K. My direction: FIXED—DOWNWARD.

Bitcoin fell sharply today—let’s look at the reasons together: 1- Yes, the big topic everyone is talking about is the Coldcard news. About 594 BTC—around $38 million worth of Bitcoin—was drained in a very short time due to a vulnerability in older Coldcard wallets. The picture that emerges points more to an exploitation of a weakness related to seed generation in older firmware versions. In other words, the issue isn’t with Bitcoin itself, but with certain wallet setups and the security layer. But markets don’t price these headlines based on technical details—they price them based on psychology at first glance. When confidence in self-custody is shaken, crypto’s short-term risk appetite deteriorates. 2- $BTC had already been struggling around the daily 50 EMA for a few days. The area around 65K acted like a resistance. It couldn’t get clear acceptance from there. Then the 64.2K support was lost. This is a level we’ve been tracking for days. As long as it held above it, I was thinking, “Okay, the market is looking for balance.” But once it slipped below it, sellers gained the upper hand. 3- On top of that, the macro picture came into play. Core PCE is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to reassure the Fed. That keeps bond yields higher. So what happens when bond yields stay high? Money flowing into risk assets becomes more selective. Crypto is directly affected by this as well. What do we see on the Bitcoin chart? - After BTC lost 64.2K, the interim support at 63.5K also weakened and it dropped as low as the 62.5K area. - The hourly RSI is in an extremely weak zone. - MACD is negative. - Volume increased on the drop candles. The 62K–61.6K zone is still an important support area. If buyers show up there, this decline could remain just a liquidity sweep. My direction: DOWN—STEADY.

We’ve left the Fed meeting behind, but the crypto market still hasn’t fully calmed down. Because the issue isn’t just “will the interest rate stay put?” Yes, the Fed held rates steady. But Warsh’s tone wasn’t soft. “There will be no compromise on the %2 inflation target,” he said. 3 members wanted rate hikes. No clear forward guidance was given that would signal relief. So why didn’t $BTC fall sharply? Because Microsoft’s strong results on the AI front lifted technology stocks. Risk appetite wasn’t completely broken. That helped BTC hold around 64K. But on the chart, there’s still no clear victory. Keeping BTC above 64.2K is good news. The daily 50 EMA is around 64.9K, and BTC still hasn’t cleanly broken above that zone. The ETF side is also undecided: there are small inflows into BTC ETFs. Outflows from ETH ETFs. Total flows are only +$2 million. On the ETH side, there’s risk reduction. My BTC bias today: IF it slips below 64.2K, the post-Fed sell-off scenario returns.

Today is Fed day! In the charts, Bitcoin is above 64K, but still below the daily 50 EMA level. What the market is expecting today is this: Will the Fed keep interest rates unchanged? Or will a surprise rate hike come? How harsh will Warsh’s tone be when he speaks? My expectation is that rates will stay the same. But Warsh’s tone could be tough. So he might deliver a message like: “For now, we didn’t raise rates, but the door is open due to the oil/inflation risk.” That’s why after the speech the first move could be a sudden wick. The oil side has also deteriorated. After news of an Iranian strike, oil rose. If oil rises, worries about inflation return. If inflation worries return, the Fed won’t be more comfortable—it will be tougher. The negative results from yesterday’s ETFs also told us this: risk is being reduced in the market ahead of the Fed decision. My Bitcoin direction ahead of the decision: STAY ABOVE 64.2K—this is good!

The move we saw today in BTC is very clear—de-risking ahead of the Fed. There’s a rate decision tomorrow. And normally the market says “rates will stay the same,” but this time things are a bit more complicated. Because Warsh doesn’t guide the Fed as much as during the Powell era. That’s why the possibility of a surprise rate hike is on the table. My view: the Fed will keep rates unchanged but keep the tone hawkish. However, if a surprise rate hike does come, BTC’s first reaction will be negative—because such a decision pulls money out of risk assets. Looking at oil: today is somewhat reassuring. The Houthi attacks pose a risk to energy supply, but Brent is currently falling on hopes for a U.S.-Iran meeting. If oil falls, Fed pressure eases. That would be good for $BTC. My direction: HOLD-DOWN

Will the Fed allow the market to relax? Tensions eased a bit on the US-Iran side. It looks like Trump has paused the attacks. Oil fell sharply because of that. - This is good for BTC. - Because if oil drops, fears of inflation decrease. But this week is Fed week. The decision will come on Wednesday evening, July 29. The market normally expects rates to stay unchanged, but the possibility of a surprise rate hike is being seriously discussed. For me, that’s why the picture for $BTC is mixed. - The daily 50 EMA around 65K has not been broken yet. - The oil drop is positive. But Fed fears are still on the table. - There’s also an important change on the Saylor side. Strategy hasn’t been buying BTC for 5 weeks. This doesn’t mean “Saylor became a seller,” but it shows he’s no longer acting like an automatic dip buyer. - Meanwhile, he continues to buy $ETH on Bitmine.