Is the Fed Sleepwalking? Inflation Just Hit 0.98% 📉
The "official" numbers say one thing, but the real-time data is screaming another: US Inflation has officially cratered to 0.98%. $JUP
While the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is still reporting a lagged rate of 2.70%, the Truflation index—which tracks millions of real-time data points—shows we aren't just "near" the 2% target; we’ve blown right past it.$OG
The Reality Gap
Why the massive discrepancy? It’s all in the data lag. The Fed is driving the economy by looking through a rearview mirror (lagged housing and survey data). Meanwhile, real-time prices for goods and transacted rents show that the "inflation monster" isn't just dead—it's buried.
The 100bps Question
At this point, keeping interest rates at restrictive levels isn't "fighting inflation"—it's arguably choking the economy. With a sub-1% inflation rate, the real interest rate is becoming dangerously high. $WLFI
Is it time for an emergency 100bps cut to prevent a hard landing?
If the Fed waits for their own slow-motion data to catch up to what the market already knows, they might find themselves fighting a deflationary fire they helped light.
