đ Fed Update â October 2025
Key Developments & Signals
Rate Cut Caution
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that future rate cuts should be approached cautiously, warning that overly aggressive easing could risk reigniting inflation pressures.
At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams spoke about the need for central banks to plan for âunpredictable change,â stressing that anchoring inflation expectations remains critical.
Data Blind Spots & Policy Uncertainty
A partial U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic indicatorsâmost notably the monthly jobs reportâleaving the Fed without its usual data inputs ahead of its October meeting.
Because of that, analysts warn the central bank may be âflying blindâ when making decisions in its October 28â29 meeting.
Expectations for October Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Oct. 28â29.
The market broadly anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, potentially bringing the target range to 3.75% â 4.00%.
Nomura recently revised its outlook to expect rate cuts not only in October, but also in December 2025.
Banking Oversight & Adjustments
The Fed agreed to lower Morgan Stanleyâs stress capital buffer from 5.1% to 4.3% after reviewing their appeal.
Meanwhile, the New York Fedâs Open Market Desk announced a smallâvalue overnight repo operation scheduled for October 8 to test contingency mechanisms.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Legal & Governance Battle
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked former President Trumpâs attempt to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in position until oral arguments are heard in January 2026.
This decision underscores the ongoing tensions around the Fedâs independence and checks on presidential authority over central bank leadership. $BTC
