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Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
$BTC $66,988 may recover from its ongoing slump and reach $150,000 by the year’s end, according to a recent Bernstein outlook.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw $BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting $BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic #BTCMiningDifficultyDrop

The retail narrative is that Bitcoin is "consolidating" at $70k. The On-Chain data says Bitcoin is DISTRIBUTING. We just hit an "Invisible Sell Wall" driven by three massive structural failures. This is not a dip to buy; it is a Rational Deleveraging triggered by a $6.3B supply shock that the market cannot absorb.

1. THE ON-CHAIN REALITY (SUPPLY SHOCK) ⛏️
• Miner Capitulation: Miners transferred 90,000 BTC ($6.3B) to exchanges in the last 72 hours.
• Historic Magnitude: This is the largest miner sell-off since 2024, signaling they are selling to survive as margins tighten.
• The Impact: Spot demand cannot absorb $6.3B in selling pressure without a significant repricing event. The "Wall" is real.

2. THE MACRO & STRUCTURE 📉

Bearish Triggers:
• Yield Spike: US 10-Year Treasury Yields spiked to 4.17%. When risk-free rates rise, capital flees crypto.
• Capital Flight: While BTC is down -3%, high-beta alts (BNB, ZEC, SUI) are down -6%+, signaling a "Risk-Off" environment where liquidity exits to USD, not Alts.
• Broken Support: We lost the 200-Week EMA at ~$68,000, a major secular bull/bear line.

The Conflict:
Retail is waiting for "Alt Season" while Institutions are executing a "Flight to Safety." The divergence between the Miner Sell Wall and retail hope creates a trap at $66k.

3. THE TRADE SETUP 🎯

🔴 Scenario A: The Rational Deleveraging
• Trigger: Rejection at $67,500 - $68,000 (Retest of broken 200W EMA support)
• Entry: $67,500 zone (selling into the Miner Wall)
• Target 1: $62,000 (October Support Cluster)
• Target 2: $59,800 (The "Weak Low" Liquidity Sweep)
• Stop: 4H close above $70,500 (Invalidates the Miner Capitulation thesis)

🟢 Scenario B: The Reclaim (Low Probability)
• Trigger: Daily close back above $70,000
• Context: Requires Miners to stop selling and Coinbase Premium to flip positive
• Target: $74,000 range high

MY VERDICT
The "Miner Wall" is too heavy. The market needs to clear the leverage at $59,800 before the bull run can resume. I am positioning SHORT into any relief rally near $67.6k. Confidence: 75% Bearish

#BTC #TrendingTopic #GoldSilverRally

Bitcoin price could still reach $150,000 by year-end, but several things must happen for BTC price to find its technical footing and spark a new bull run.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must hold the 200-week SMA and see new-investor flows turn positive.Sidelined capital must flow back into crypto, and the quantum threat needs to be addressed.More rate cuts from the Fed in 2026 will bring risk-on investors back to BTC.

Bitcoin must hold above this key trend line
One condition that has consistently defined Bitcoin’s transition from bear markets to new bull cycles is the price action around the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave).
Historically, this wave has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a solid floor once selling pressure subsides.

In both 2015 and 2018, Bitcoin bottomed near the 200-week SMA before entering multiyear uptrends. The 2022 bear market saw BTC price briefly breaking below it, but the failure proved short-lived.
Bitcoin holding above the 200-week SMA will reduce the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation, while keeping the path open for a new bull phase.
Bitcoin’s new investor flows must return
Another prerequisite for a sustained bull run is a reversal in new investor flows.
As of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022.

In healthy bull markets, pullbacks attract fresh capital and accelerate participation. However, in the current market, the opposite is happening, according to IT Tech, a CryptoQuant-associated onchain analyst.
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows,” the analyst wrote in a Tuesday post.
In prior cycles, including 2020, 2021 and 2022, sustained bullish reversals only emerged once new-investor flows flipped decisively back into positive territory.

The same must happen in 2026 to make a strong bull case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be a first sign that these investor flows are starting to come back.
Sidelined Tether must flow back into crypto
Tether’s (USDT) share of the total crypto market has risen in recent weeks to test a familiar 8.5%–9.0% resistance zone.
Rising USDT dominance means investors are parking money in stablecoins and avoiding risk. Falling dominance usually signals the opposite: capital rotating back into Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Since November 2022, clear pullbacks from this 8%–9% area have aligned with strong Bitcoin rebounds.
One rejection was followed by a 76% rally over 140 days, while another preceded 169% gains over 180 days. A similar setup occurred from 2020 to 2022, when the key ceiling sat near 4.5%–5.75%.
USDT dominance broke above that range in May 2022, and Bitcoin then fell by 45%, further reflecting the inverse correlation between the two.
As a result, Tether dominance must fall to start a new Bitcoin bull run.
Quantum fears must subside
Another headwind to overcome for Bitcoin is the potential quantum threat. These are theories that future quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography, putting BTC wallets at risk.
Some note that 25% of Bitcoin addresses are already at risk.
Several security-focused sources frame this as a threat that is still far off in the future.
For example, in November 2025, cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for “20 to 40 years,” adding the network can be “quantum ready” well before it becomes a real problem.
Bitcoin Optech also noted that near-term quantum risk would be concentrated in edge cases, such as reused addresses, rather than the entire network at once.
For Bitcoin to build a bull case in 2026, this threat must be addressed for buyers to regain confidence.
Doing just that, Coinbase and Strategy have launched initiatives, bringing in experts and mapping out a roadmap for Bitcoin security upgrades.

More rate cuts by the Fed
Bitcoin’s chances of re-entering a bull cycle in 2026 improve if the US Federal Reserve delivers at least two rate cuts next year, which is what CME futures pricing was currently implying as of February.

Lower rates generally reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys, pushing investors to seek higher returns elsewhere. That shift tends to favor risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.
Donald Trump may push the new Fed chair for three rate cuts in 2026, according to Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street Corp.
Three rate cuts this year may further increase Bitcoin’s appeal among risk traders.
#BTC #TrendingTopic

Closing losers and holding winners is not a mindset problem. It is a structural one. The decision should come from whether the market has invalidated your narrative or continues to support it. Emotion enters when that framework is missing.

A losing trade should be closed when the reason for the trade no longer exists. In practice, this happens when structure breaks beyond the point that defined risk. If price violates the level that anchored the setup, the market has proven a different story. Holding beyond that point turns analysis into hope. The stop is not there to protect comfort. It is there to protect logic.
Losers also need to be closed when market conditions change.

Volatility expansion, liquidity drain, or session transitions can invalidate a setup even if price has not reached the stop. If execution relied on clean participation and that participation disappears, staying in the trade increases risk without increasing probability. Capital is better preserved for conditions that support the original thesis.
Winners require a different lens. A trade should be held as long as structure continues to support the direction. Higher lows in an uptrend or lower highs in a downtrend indicate that control remains intact. Premature exits usually occur when traders focus on unrealized profit instead of structural confirmation.

Partial profit-taking can be used to reduce pressure, but full exits should align with objective signals. Momentum decay, failure to progress toward the next liquidity objective, or a clear structural break against the position are valid reasons to reduce or exit.

Another consideration is location. When price reaches major opposing liquidity or higher timeframe levels, risk increases. Holding through these areas without reassessment often leads to giving back gains. Exiting or reducing exposure here is a strategic decision, not a fear-based one.

The discipline lies in treating losses and gains symmetrically. Both decisions are governed by structure, liquidity, and environment. When trades are managed by narrative instead of emotion, losses remain controlled and winners are allowed to develop. Over time, this alignment does more for performance than any adjustment to entry technique.

#TrendingTopic #Write2Earn #CZAMAonBinanceSquare