s2f
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This is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model by @100trillionUSD, calculating scarcity of Bitcoin, which has historically done a decent job at calling tops, and in some cases, bottoms for #Bitcoin.
The key metric here is the model variance, when it goes above 1.5, it typically marks a cycle top. Variance measures how far #BTC’s actual price deviates (above or below) from the model’s projected value.
Right now, the model's suggested price is around $338K, which means for variance to exceed 1.5, BTC would need to reach slightly above $500K.
That might sound unrealistic, and maybe it is. But the same was said in 2013, 2017, and even 2019, when BTC far exceeded expectations, often doing 1.5x of what the model suggested.
Still, we need to stay rational, this is just one model. It might hold up this cycle, or it might break.
#cryptouniverseofficial #S2F
The key metric here is the model variance, when it goes above 1.5, it typically marks a cycle top. Variance measures how far #BTC’s actual price deviates (above or below) from the model’s projected value.
Right now, the model's suggested price is around $338K, which means for variance to exceed 1.5, BTC would need to reach slightly above $500K.
That might sound unrealistic, and maybe it is. But the same was said in 2013, 2017, and even 2019, when BTC far exceeded expectations, often doing 1.5x of what the model suggested.
Still, we need to stay rational, this is just one model. It might hold up this cycle, or it might break.
#cryptouniverseofficial #S2F
New Bitcoin S2F Model (Stock-to-Flow) tool is currently under development and will be released later on this month as an interactive chart with screenshotting capabilities.
S2F is a price model that forecasts Bitcoin's value by assessing its scarcity, calculating the ratio between its existing supply and annual production rate.
#s2f #stocktoflow #bitcoins2f
S2F is a price model that forecasts Bitcoin's value by assessing its scarcity, calculating the ratio between its existing supply and annual production rate.
#s2f #stocktoflow #bitcoins2f
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