Ukraine will not leave Donbas: forecast from The Financial Times for 2026:
ᅠ• Will Donald Trump's tariffs be higher on average at the end of the year than now? By the end of the year, it will mostly back down from new tariff threats and partially reduce the current ones.
• Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be forced to abandon Donbas as part of the peace agreement? The transfer of the rest of the Donbas is unacceptable for military, political and constitutional reasons.
• Will the Republicans lose control of Capitol Hill? Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives, but not of the Senate.
• Will the artificial intelligence bubble burst? A decline in overheating, losses in venture capital and problems of small companies are expected.
Will there be an early election in France? Political forces are focussed on the 2027 presidential election.
• Will the Chinese yuan strengthen? No, essentially, no. The government will not allow a significant strengthening of the currency.
• Will the “sanitary border” against the AfD in Germany be destroyed? The pressure will increase, but there will be no formal cooperation.
• Will Sanae Takaichi remain Prime Minister of Japan in a year? Early elections and the consolidation of its power are likely.
• Will the central banks complete the cycle of lowering interest rates? The majority will continue to cut rates in 2026.
• Will Kir Starmer face a challenge to his leadership? A possible attempt to change the leadership of the Labour Party.
• Will there be new problematic players in the private credit market? Defaults will increase, although a systemic financial crisis is not expected.
• Does Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel? Without a clear path to the Palestinian state, this will not happen.
• Will there be homework? They will be available to wealthy early adopters, but not bulk.
• Will Africa grow faster than Asia? Yes, but insignificant. The advantage will be minimal.
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