Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October high.
Retail investors are still buying, Analysts are calling for $10,000. On-chain metrics are flashing accumulation.
Macro is flashing stress And Fear & Greed just printed 8.
This isn’t just volatility, This is a cycle test. Let me share my honest take.
The Part That Caught My Attention First
While headlines scream “crypto winter,” something interesting is happening quietly.
Retail on Coinbase is still buying dips.
Balances in
$BTC and
$ETH are reportedly equal to or higher than December levels.
Now pause there……
Retail usually disappears during real fear phases, But they’re not
That doesn’t automatically mean “bullish.”
But it tells me something: Conviction hasn’t fully broken. And that matters in late-cycle corrections.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
His thesis is simple:
• US stocks at extreme valuations
• Volatility compressed
• Gold and silver accelerating
• Risk assets vulnerable
If the S&P drops to 5,600 → BTC could mirror toward $56K, And possibly much lower.
Is that insane?
Not really.
Bitcoin is still a high-beta asset, If macro liquidity dries up hard enough, crypto doesn’t float above it.
But here’s where I disagree slightly.
The market doesn’t move purely on doom scenarios. It moves on positioning and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for long-term holders) Right now it sits at 0.36.
That means long-term holders are still in profit. Historically, real cycle bottoms begin when this metric turns negative.
Translation:
When even the strongest hands are underwater.
That’s when seller exhaustion completes.
We’re not there yet.
Which tells me this phase might still need more emotional damage before the true reset.
The MVRV Accumulation Signal
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s MVRV just entered the “Accumulation Zone” for the first time in four years.
Last time this happened? May 2022, And we dropped another ~50% after. That’s the part nobody likes to highlight.
Yes, low MVRV signals undervaluation.
But undervaluation doesn’t mean immediate reversal. Sometimes it means “early.” I’ve learned this the hard way.
43% of Supply at a Loss
This stat matters more than price action, When nearly half the circulating supply is underwater, pressure builds.
Weak hands capitulate.
Strong hands accumulate.
Fear & Greed at 8 confirms it.
But here’s the nuance: Extreme fear can last longer than traders expect, And that’s where most people get chopped up.
My 2 Cents (Not Financial Advice~ Just My Bias)
This doesn’t feel like 2019, It feels closer to mid-2022 psychology.
We’re in the stage where:
• Retail still has some confidence
• Long-term holders are still profitable
• Macro hasn’t fully cracked
• Valuations are being repriced
• Narratives are shifting from hype to fundamentals
That tells me this is a compression phase, Not necessarily the final bottom.
If NUPL turns negative?
If long-term holders go underwater?
If retail sentiment finally breaks?
That’s when I’ll start getting aggressive.
Right now?
I’m cautious.
Selective.
Watching absorption.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K possible?”
“Is the bull market over?”
I think the better question is: Are strong hands absorbing or distributing? That answer will show up on-chain before it shows up in headlines.
Final Thought
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears, They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close. But not fully broken yet. And in my experience, the final flush is always the one that feels unnecessary. That’s the one I’m waiting for.
If this perspective resonated with you, follow for deeper cycle-based analysis.
I don’t chase headlines.
I study positioning.
#BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #MarketRebound