MY VIEW ON ALTCOIN SEASON 2026
I don’t assess altcoin season based on feelings or trending narratives.
My perspective is built on data, market structure, and real capital flow behavior.
As of early January 2026, this is how I see the crypto market.
1️⃣ CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT
- Bitcoin Dominance remains elevated around 58–59%, with its structure still intact.
➝ This indicates that capital is still favoring BTC, not broadly rotating into altcoins.
- The Altcoin Season Index remains low, well below confirmation levels.
- Most altcoins are not consistently outperforming BTC.
- BTC is holding firmly at high levels, while altcoins are moving selectively, not collectively.
👉 From my perspective, this is not an altcoin season yet.
2️⃣ INSIGHTS FROM TOTAL3
- TOTAL3 is currently around ~860–870B, after a sharp drop from the ~1.2T peak.
The medium-term trend remains bearish, but short-term technical relief has formed after bouncing from the 820–830B support zone.
- Price has not reclaimed the MA / mid Bollinger Band (~880–900B)
➝ The bullish structure is not confirmed.
- Recovery volume remains weak, suggesting this move is still a pullback, not a true altcoin season wave.
👉 Only when TOTAL3 closes a Daily candle above 900B with strong volume can we start talking about a sustainable recovery in the altcoin market.
3️⃣ WILL THERE BE AN ALTCOIN SEASON IN 2026?
- I do not expect a broad, explosive altcoin season like 2017 or 2021.
- The market has evolved:
- Institutional capital dominates
- ETFs concentrate inflows into BTC (and partially ETH)
- Risk appetite is more selective, not speculative across the board
That said, I do believe capital rotation into altcoins will happen, but in phases, by sectors, not as a market-wide rally.
#Market_Update #TradingSignals #TOTAL3Breakout