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This week is considered one of the most important weeks in the American financial market during February 2026, as it witnesses the release of a set of major economic data, some of which were delayed due to a recent short-term government shutdown. These data include the December retail sales report, the January jobs report, initial jobless claims, January existing home sales, and most importantly the January CPI inflation index, in addition to five Federal Reserve speaker events. All these elements will directly affect expectations for monetary policy, the path of interest rates, and investment decisions in stocks, bonds, and currencies.The week begins ⬇️

⬆️ on Monday (approximately February 9) with the release of December retail sales data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Retail sales represent a crucial indicator of the strength of consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. GDP. Estimates indicate an increase of approximately 0.5-0.6% month-over-month, with special focus on core sales (excluding cars and fuel) to measure underlying trends. If the data comes stronger than expected, it reinforces the idea that the economy remains strong despite previously elevated interest rates, which may reduce the chances of an imminent rate cut. However, if it comes weak, it may reflect a slowdown in consumption due to inflation pressures and high rates, thereby supporting expectations for faster rate cuts. This report follows the holiday shopping season, so it will have a significant impact on assessing the resilience of the American consumer ⬇️

⬆️ On Wednesday (approximately February 11), the January jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) is released, which is one of the most important economic reports ever. It was also delayed due to the government shutdown, and it is expected to show the addition of about 80-100 thousand jobs only, compared to December’s relatively weak numbers (around 50 thousand). The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable near 4.4-4.5%. This report is considered a “double blow” alongside inflation later, because it determines the strength of the labor market. If it comes strong (more than 150 thousand jobs with elevated wage growth), it will indicate that the economy does not need additional monetary support, thereby strengthening the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. But if it is weak, it may increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates in upcoming meetings, especially with the noticeable slowdown in hiring in recent months

⬆️ On Thursday (approximately February 12), two important releases arrive: initial jobless claims and January existing home sales. Initial jobless claims are released weekly and provide an immediate glimpse into the health of the labor market; around 230-235 thousand claims are expected, and any noticeable increase heightens slowdown concerns

As for existing home sales (from NAR), they are expected to be around 4.2-4.35 million units annually. The housing market is suffering from high mortgage interest rates, which reduces activity, but any improvement may signal the beginning of a recovery with expectations of lower rates

These two releases complete the picture of the labor market and housing, and influence expectations for overall economic growth ⬇️

⬆️ On Friday (approximately February 13), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is released, which is the most impactful data point this week

Estimates indicate a monthly increase of 0.3%, and an annual rate of around 2.5-2.7%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) close to 2.5%. Inflation has recently stabilized after declining from its 2022 peak, but the Fed is waiting for additional evidence of a sustainable return to the 2% target. If inflation comes higher than expected, especially in core components, it will reduce the probability of a rate cut in March or April, and may push markets to price in a slower cutting cycle. But if it is low, it strengthens expectations for an imminent cut, supporting stocks and gold while pressuring the dollar ⬇️

⬆️ In addition to this data, there are five Federal Reserve speaker events during the week, making monetary communication (forward guidance) pivotal. The speakers usually include members such as Waller, Bostic, Hammack, Logan, and others (such as Miran or Cook in some events). Their statements will focus on assessing incoming data, especially jobs and inflation, and the need to adjust policy. If they indicate caution (due to persistent inflation or a strong labor market), it will be negative for risk assets. But if they appear optimistic about inflation slowing, they may support positive expectations.Overall, this week is decisive in determining the path of monetary policy in 2026
The delayed data makes interaction with them more intense, and markets are extremely sensitive to any deviation from expectations. Investors are watching how the Fed reacts to this combined picture: is the economy strong enough to withstand higher rates for longer, or is the slowdown accelerating and requiring faster intervention? The answer will determine market trends for the coming weeks 🤔

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