#UGC #analytics
🌶 Rektober is already close
Let's evaluate bitcoin, see what to expect for this week and this month. What is positive about the market, maybe it's time to really talk about growth?
Technical analysis
📕 Bitcoin is moving in an ascending channel. Working out such an ascending channel is its basis of $25,000. But geometric patterns are strong when combined with price levels. And at the moment, the price rested on the upper border of the sidewall of $25,200 - $28,100. The ascending channel + the price rested on the upper border of the sidewall is a strong argument in favor of a decline.
📕 Let's study the volumes on the daily TF. On August 29, there was a false pump with an increased volume. This volume was immediately absorbed by the seller. On September 12, there was another increased volume, at the lower border of the sidewall, which could be characterized as local purchases. But on October 2, a comparable volume of the seller was poured in already at the upper border of the sidewall, completely absorbing purchases from September 12. The seller shows serious aggression in the sidewall of $25,200 - $28,100$.
The stock market declined both in September and this month. And despite this decline, bitcoin has grown at a maximum of +8%. Now half of the growth has been corrected. The S&P 500 was adjusted at a maximum of -7%. In previous periods, with such a wave of decline, bitcoin was adjusted a little later by 15-25% from the local peak ($28,500 in this case).
📕 ETH completely absorbed all the growth for September. Usually, when the market is sideways, bitcoin and ether move synchronously. And when bitcoin is pumping, but ether is not, this indicates the manipulative nature of growth. It is extremely likely that this situation is now the manipulative growth of bitcoin.
Sentiment analysis
📕 A new trend on Twitter and Telegram is Uptober. Since even statistically red September turned out to be green in the end, as well as the fact that before the new year there is usually a rally in the markets, it is worth waiting for growth in October (according to many). They even came up with a name for this movement, Uptober. It is somewhat reminiscent of the story with laser eyes when the cue ball is above $50k. I definitely interpret this observation as bearish.
There are a lot of "positive" news that the media are trying to pump up the market with. Spot bitcoin-ETF, BlackRock & crypta, Sailor buys bitcoin for hundreds of millions of dollars, halving soon, dozens of native forecasts from cryptoselebrity. The story of Ripple vs SEC comes up again, which once already planted a lot of retailers in unprofitable longs. And here, again, an inexperienced retailer gets the impression that the market is really preparing for a bull run.
A huge number of crypto channels in TG believe in further growth. It does not matter whether it is a temporary increase before a further decline, or a true one – the beginning of a bull run. There are many examples: here, here, here, here, here and here. The crowd is not short enough right from the current ones. As a result of this argument – expectations of Hamakhi.
📄 The market has already exhausted its flat. But with an extremely high degree of probability, all this two-month accumulation will eventually end with a breakdown of $25,000 and a move lower. What news events will be tied to this movement is anyone's guess.