聚美部落

This drop is actually more a result of the global market linkage.
The US stock market and Nikkei have both fallen quite a bit,
the decline of mainstream coins in the crypto space is still within a normal fluctuation range.
(Compared to extreme moments like 3·12 and 5·19, mainstream coins are actually much milder.)

What is truly exaggerated are various new projects and non-mainstream knockoffs.
My logic throughout this round has been:
There will no longer be a truly meaningful "knockoff season."

The logic is simple:
With more and more coins and increasingly mixed projects,
the inflated market capitalization that has been built up is ultimately difficult to sustain.
It is almost impossible to see another round of universal increases of tenfold or hundredfold.

Where does the market's money come from?
Even market-making funds are not infinite.
Once liquidity cannot support, it is very easy to form a chain reaction of collapses.

Now many on-chain projects have only a few million or tens of millions in their liquidity pools,
yet they support market capitalizations of over a hundred million, or even over a billion.
This structure, including secondary market making,
itself is extremely fragile; with just a gust of wind, it can collapse.

If you hold stablecoins, USDT and USDC are definitely the safest.
Other stablecoins, no matter how varied the play, I personally have little interest.

The last round of pegged stablecoins like UST / Luna had an annualized return of 20%, and ultimately went to zero.
Stablecoins are indeed a good sector, but there's no need to rush into positioning.

Including this round of US stocks CRCL as well,
wait for that opportunity which can be held long-term and can cross cycles.

Today the market is extreme, but the cat is still relatively stable.

During this period, I have also been dollar-cost averaging, and overall I have bought nearly 3 million cats.

The cat may have a bubble, but I am not a bubble.

Living long-term allows us to cross bulls and bears together, shining brightly.✨

If one believes that human nature is always driven by greed and fear, then one will no longer believe in an 'eternal bull market'.

If one understands that wealth will eventually concentrate in the hands of a few, and that 90% of the people in the market will have to pay for their actions, then there is no need to worry about missing out on anything.

Recent market trends,
From personal observation, Bitcoin seems to still be ahead of the Nasdaq.

Earlier, Bitcoin led the pullback, followed by a decline in the Nasdaq,
And recently, Bitcoin has rebounded first to reach new highs, while the Nasdaq has also slowly climbed back to new highs.

Therefore, the movement and trendline of Bitcoin still hold certain reference significance.

However, returning to the operation itself,
There is almost no cost-effectiveness in 'holding long' at this stage.
Although there may be some opportunity to make profits in the short term, 'inertia holding' is not always the correct strategy.

Many times, holding long turns into a long-term drawdown.
For example:
Buying properties in certain cities in 2015, after 10 years, you might still be at a loss now.
In the A-share market, holding long for nearly 7-8 years, most varieties fail to even outperform bank interest rates on an annualized basis.
And so on.

It's not that there aren't times of high returns, but the stage dividends are easily eroded by time.
When profits are trapped and expectations are nearly exhausted, looking back, you realize you're stuck in place or even regressing.

So, when judging that profits are limited, staying in cash is actually a more efficient choice.
It not only preserves flexibility but also provides more room to wait for truly cost-effective heavy investment opportunities.

Continue to wait for the next time you can confidently invest heavily, be willing to hold long, and see a certain 'turning point'.

But it is definitely not now,
Now is not worth it.

It is said that this will be Vitalik’s first Ethereum spot ETF after it is approved.