区块链大王

Wisdom point of view: Recently, there are frequent news in the market that the ETF of Yitai will be approved in early July. If it is approved, the current discomfort is worth it. But there is also a possibility that this is deliberately released false news to attract people to enter the market to stock up. If it is not approved in the end, there will be a process of falling and washing the market. No matter how you say it, it makes sense, but I just don’t know whether it will pass. #以太坊ETF批准预期

Who is the third short seller? It is the German government. Germany is also selling 3 billion dollars of bitcoins. In fact, in the past week, it has been selling them non-stop, and this process is still ongoing. Then the wallet address that sold yesterday moved again, and it was transferred out again today, but its volume is relatively small. According to the data that can be monitored, Germany holds about 50,000 bitcoins. If it is true as reported, it seems to be ready to sell all the bitcoins. However, these data are only based on the bitcoins collected by the country through confiscation. I think it is difficult to count. This is only a number that can be traced publicly. In this context, perhaps many people will also worry about whether the US government will sell some bitcoins. From the perspective of the US government’s wallet balance, there is no trend of selling. So for the overall bitcoin, you will find that some people are selling it, and some are willing to buy it, including this American institution, which is actually still buying around 60,000. After the overall ETF entered the market, the comprehensive cost of many bitcoins should be around 62,000. That is to say, there are a large number of retail investors and institutions in the United States. Their entry price is around 62,000. Now it has fallen below their entry price. Even so, don't be pessimistic. No matter what happens in 2024, the bull market in 2025 is still worth looking forward to. At present, it seems that it will take some time for the big cake to recover, but since the record high, the behavior of long-term and short-term holders has changed. Coupled with the 20% range fluctuation of Bitcoin, long-term holders will naturally not miss such an opportunity. Sooner or later, we will see the second wave of distribution process, and eventually we will see the second big bull market. Then long-term opportunities must be generated in the big drop. Everyone should know that the current callback is only temporary. Don't fall on the eve of the big bull market. Now the fomo sentiment is serious, so everyone must be calm. The more bullish the market, the more stable it must be. Then I will continue to pay attention and share the news. Everyone can pay more attention to the group news. Friends who want to learn and listen to the class and get the latest trends and news, understand #以太坊ETF批准预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #Blast空投

Today is Wednesday, June 26, 2024. The Shanzhai finally ushered in a wave of rebound yesterday, and the big cake hit a new low due to the news of Mentougou. At present, the big cake is still fluctuating at the bottom. It needs to stand firm at 6.3w to gradually think that there are clear signs of improvement. Today, let's talk about the three biggest shorts at present. First, let's take a look at the situation of the spot ETF market yesterday. There is no doubt that outflows continue to be seen. After the negative news from the non-agricultural data on June 7, coupled with the impact of the interest rate meeting not long ago, the macroeconomic environment has hit the ETF market. We continue to see net outflows, and there seems to be no sign of recovery in the short term. The second is the Mentougou incident. The people who lost their bitcoins in Mtgox 10 years ago will be compensated. These people will have a strong motivation to sell, but the good thing is that their compensation is not based on the current price. It can't be done at the current price because there is not enough money. He is based on the price of 2014. At that time, one coin was only a few hundred dollars. Although it was compensated at that price, he also had to sell a lot of pens. So if all are sold, the price will definitely be below 50,000. If he sells part of it now, and then sells the rest for 80,000 or 100,000, then there is no possibility of crashing the market. So this matter is basically equivalent to the previous FTT crash. The negative impact it brings to the market is long-term, but the market has finally digested it. At present, the biggest short is the question of when to sell and how much to sell. We can't guess this, but if all are sold, its price will definitely be below 50,000. If its price is below 50,000, how should this matter be analyzed? There is no way to analyze it. This is a potential sword of Damocles on the heads of all players, so it requires us to be more cautious in the future process, because there is a very large short above, and he may sell it at any time, but the problem of Mentougou has the opportunity to be solved once and for all, which is beneficial to the long-term development of Bitcoin in the future, but it does have to experience some pain in the short term. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？

Let me tell you about my current thinking. Don't analyze anything now. Don't analyze this coin or that coin, because analysis is meaningless. Now we just need to look at Bitcoin. In the short term, one of our views is to see if it will rebound. If there is a rebound, that's good. If not, we need to make further adjustments. Then can we buy at the bottom now? If you want to speculate now, you'd better place an order a few points lower than the current position. This position is definitely acceptable, as long as you can accept it. Because the current price is already very low. If you enter the market now, to be honest, you can save a few months of detours, right? If you look back, you will see that others are still on the way to recover their investment, and you are now entering the market to intercept them, and you are already far ahead. Then the idea I gave you before was to choose Bitcoin in the early stage, and replace Bitcoin with Shanzhai in the late stage of the bull market to maximize profits. Now I can tell you that if Bitcoin reaches 60,000, to be honest, it may be your biggest opportunity in the past two years. What big opportunity? That is, when the bitcoin reaches 60,000, you can clear some of your bitcoins and exchange them for altcoins, but as long as it does not reach 60,000, you should not consider exchanging. If it does reach 60,000, you can exchange it for mainstream altcoins. Leave it alone and watch the altcoin. When the bitcoin hits 80,000 in the future, it can achieve several times. This is the logic of operating altcoins in the future. Altcoins have no cost-effectiveness in the shock, unless the current altcoins can achieve full circulation, that is, release all the circulation, regardless of how much your institution controls, and take out all of them to become this kind of full circulation. We fight fairly, then our probability of survival will be higher, but we cannot do this now. In the same round, I can tell you clearly here that altcoins have not ended. When the bitcoin rushes from 60,000 to 80,000 in the future, its space is limited. But the currency circle must need double projects. So do you think the bitcoin can double from 60,000 to 80,000? No, then who can double it? Only altcoins. So how can altcoins do it? The only way for copycats to succeed in the future is to wash them more deeply. This is a very simple logic.#BTC走势分析

Hello everyone, today is Thursday, June 20, 2024. Macroeconomics. The spot ETF market has been continuously outflowing, bringing some negative effects. At present, the overall situation is rebound + shock, and it cannot be considered that we have come out of the panic, so we still need to be cautious. In the last issue, we talked about the changes in the market value of the historical cycle of the altcoin. Generally, the market value of the altcoin reaches a new high 546 days after the halving, and that should be the place where the bull market is officially declared over. Normally speaking, the bull market will end in October next year, but some people say that the bull market will end in the first half of next year. From the previous two big cake cycles, it usually ends in October of the second year after the halving. So no matter what, at least we know that no one thinks the bull market will end this year. If you look at the rainbow chart of Bitcoin now, you will see similar views. Therefore, I think the next few months may be the last opportunity for accumulation. Whether it is the big cake concubine or the altcoin, we should not focus on the present, but look at it in the long run. #美联储何时降息？

I told you before that this year's hot topic is artificial intelligence. Let's take a look at WLD. Apple recently held a developer conference. They are going to cooperate with open ai. What are they cooperating on? They are making chatGPT and embedding it into Apple phones. This is a good thing. But for WLD, it is now around 4U. My view on WLD now is that even if there is a rebound in the overall trend, it will not be very strong overall. So we remain bearish on WLD. We actually talked about this bearish idea in the group very early, probably around 6, we talked about it, do you remember it? Why do we look bearish? Because it has something to do with his VC token, which is an institutional token. Then there will be another one in the next few days. Recently, there will be a VC with a big hair going online. Do you know which one it is? ZKSYNC, the last of the four kings, is about to go online, and it is also a big hair level. But I think the price it goes online will not be good. We will take a look after the launch. I think all the L2 projects are very lame now. OP, ARB, etc. are really annoying. But do you think this project is good? Good. It is the left and right arm of Ethereum. The left arm of Ethereum is staking, and the right arm is L2. If they don't work, Ethereum will not work. But Ethereum has a chance, there is no doubt about that. So if you look at the artificial intelligence sector, it is a hot sector this year, but the overall performance is not very good at present, because its hot period has passed. So the market is now very divided. Bitcoin has basically not moved, but the cottage is a mess. So here I will tell you to play with Bitcoin Auntie. For example, from the end of last year to now, if you buy Bitcoin Auntie and don't move, you will have doubled, but if you don't get stuck in the cottage, it's good. So in the next round of bull market, everyone should stock up on Bitcoin Auntie, because it will only become more and more difficult to play in the future.

#美联储何时降息？ #meme板块关注热点 $BTC

Today is June 12, 2024. The overall outlook is still not very optimistic. Some friends who hold long-term positions have told me that they are overwhelmed. The price of altcoins has basically returned to last year, and some are even trapped. So what is the point of holding long-term positions? Watching the numbers go up and down for a short time? So this year is particularly difficult. There may be a saying in the past that as long as you hold it and don’t sell it, you won’t be cut, but it’s not possible now. If you hold it now, you may not be deeply trapped, and you will miss some other opportunities. So now you really need to adjust this idea. Let’s talk about today’s topic. What is the current hot spot? I don’t know. There is no hot spot in the market at all. Although meme has set a new high, it is not a hot spot. Why? If it is a hot spot, it is PEPE. It is the only one that has performed well recently. What is a hot spot? Hot spots are in blocks. Hot spots are when several projects perform well. It is a sector, but there is no such sector at present, so this month, last month, and the month before last are all in a period of transition. You can see that there was a hot sector before March, and there was an artificial intelligence sector before March. There were hot sectors at that time, but now there are no hot sectors at all. So which sector may be a potential hot sector? It is related to the World Cup and the Champions League. The Champions League will start soon, so you can see that CHZ, the leader of the sports sector, has been relatively strong recently. #美联储利率决策即将公布 #meme板块关注热点

Then two days ago, Musk's Starship was launched again. When we mention Musk, the first thing that comes to mind is Dogecoin. The launch of the Starship is undoubtedly good for Dogecoin. If it succeeds, it will definitely drive Dogecoin to soar into the sky. Everyone joked that Musk wanted to put Dogecoin on the moon. The previous three times were unsuccessful. The popularity of Dogecoin was pulled up, but the price fell. This time the launch was successful, but everyone seemed numb, and there was not much ups and downs. This kind of thing usually pulls up after the news comes out, but after the results come out, the good news often lands in the bad news, and there will be corresponding downs. In the past two days, as the market went down in the past two days, Dogecoin also went south. In fact, Dogecoin can be considered for fixed investment. It is relatively stable, so the decline is an opportunity. Because if the bull market of the big cake continues to start, you have to admit that Dogecoin is like this. That is, you may complain a lot about it when it does not rise, but when it really starts, you only have the word "bull", then it will be difficult for you to get on the bus at that time. So the better way of Dogecoin is suitable for those with a calm mentality and a large volume, such as I can take out hundreds of thousands to make fixed investments. Shib is also based on this idea. As for when it will be launched, none of us can decide. We can only leave it to time. Time will give us the answer, but I believe that Doge will not let us down in the long run. So what do you think, how much room does Doge have? Welcome to communicate. #meme板块关注热点 $BTC

Today is Tuesday, June 11, 2024. First of all, the news, since the negative news of non-agricultural data last week, the market is really a mess. After the Dragon Boat Festival, everything is gone. It stands to reason that the non-agricultural data will not have such a big impact, because we can see that the US stock market is still strong, so it can only be attributed to the black swan event or the joint harvesting and smashing of the market by the doctrine. At present, everyone is waiting for the CPI data and the Federal Reserve FOM meeting on Wednesday night. After these two major events, I believe the situation will be slightly clearer. In the past two days, everyone's state is that everything looks like garbage. The market is cleaned very strongly, basically 95% are falling, but there is no obvious negative news. It's difficult. Next, let's take a look at the on-chain data. The on-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders have begun to accumulate. Since the middle of last month, some big players have noticed something and are constantly collecting Bitcoin. Then we refer to the performance of the historical cycle and can see that short-term holders will always increase with the rise in Bitcoin prices, and after Bitcoin reaches the highest point of the cycle, this group will account for more than 70% of the realized market value. Now we only see 41%, so Bitcoin 73,000 is not the end. At present, the area where short-term holders are more active is about 6.6-6.9w, which shows that everyone is still optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, because they will never choose to sell it at around 10cm, so they must be aiming for a higher goal. At present, Bitcoin finally stood at 70,000 a few days ago, but now it has started to go downhill again. There is another piece of information that deserves our attention. The ETF market has maintained net inflows for half a month. In addition to the United States, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Australia, Thailand has also approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF. This goes back to the original problem. Most people will follow the footsteps of the Americans and follow up and launch spot ETFs accordingly, otherwise they may be left behind. Japan and South Korea may follow suit next. At that time, Bitcoin will reach a new level. #非农就业人数高于预期 #美联储利率决策即将公布

The ondo project team transferred 62 million coins to the exchange. Is this a plan to ship out the coins? #山寨季何时到来？

Recently, many people asked me to talk about FIL. What does FIL say? FIL's official laboratory released a result of the past few months some time ago. In fact, this result is very average. Their TVL is the total locked amount. There is no obvious increase. The proportion of data increase and the month-on-month speed are also lower than last year. In other words, FIL's storage is very poor, but FIL also has good points, that is, the concept is here. The leader of the storage sector is still AR. Because AR's project has made some new reforms, the price has been directly pulled up in this round. But I remember that AR was around 7 last year. I told everyone, but I don't know if you bought it. Anyway, I bought it. At most, it doubled five times, but I didn't hold it. I sold a lot when it doubled. Now there is only a little left. No matter. What can I say about AR? As a long-term follower of AR, the market value of AR can go from 300 million to 3 billion. It must be driven by two things: 1. AR's narrative transformation, from storage to AI+parallel computing. AO has been hyping it up recently, but I have to pour cold water. AO is still very scarce in the ecosystem at present, and there are only a few thousand users of popular applications. 2. In this round of bull market, retail investors have become more sophisticated and are speculating in full circulation and abandoning high FDV and low circulation projects. AR is a typical full circulation value coin, and the circulation market value is the real market value. Combined with Coinbase, these are also the main reasons for its rapid growth. However, it must be said that AR is very suitable for playing in waves, and the strong pressure of 50 is difficult to break. Overall, it is still oscillating in a wide range. A few days ago, Ar also tweeted that AO will issue its own tokens and adopt a 100% fair issuance. Each token will be minted by cross-chain to AO, holding AR or construction. There are 21 million AO tokens in total, which will be halved every 4 years. AO will be launched at 23:00 on June 13th, Beijing time, which means that ar still has great potential. Moreover, the high point of the last bull market was 90. With the breakthrough of AO this year, it is still very good in the long run. Everyone can pay more attention to it. Ar players can pay attention to some dynamics on the AO chain. There are more opportunities. In addition, in the early stage of on-chain applications, there are a lot of coins with great potential and low market value. You can play with the leading meme and leading applications. I would like to mention that there will be another wave of good news for ar in the short term. Pay attention to the news of the founder of ar in early June #BTC走势分析 $BTC

Avive is real garbage

Is turbo going to take off? Family members #meme板块关注热点

The market trend is divergent. Bitcoin is not falling, Ethereum is falling slightly, meme is falling, mainstream is falling, and copycat is falling. There is no hot spot in the market in the short term and it is facing adjustment. The meme sector is falling collectively. The main upward trend has ended. The subsequent meme is very difficult, so it is recommended to be cautious. #5月市场关键事件 #BTC走势分析 #

#5月市场关键事件 Of course, the 10 billion yuan sell-off of Mentougou is indeed a big deal, but the former CEO of Mentougou said that they have no plans to sell now. The negative news of Mentougou has been repeatedly fermented for more than a year, so everyone has expected it, and the impact is not so great. But you can't prevent the Mentougou incident. Because you don't know when he will sell, he will only be a big negative when he really sells. He is not selling now. If you want to know, tell me that although it is a potential negative, it will become a positive after it is sold. Then let's talk about a few good potential coins. I think they all have a good chance. Do you know that the stock of Nvidia, the leader in AI chips, has once again broken through the previous historical high. So the AI ​​craze may break out again at any time, and now RNDR is just in a state of no one's attention. It has been consolidating at a low level for nearly a month, so we can still pay attention to this coin again, because it usually doesn't move, but it has amazing explosive power, so if you wait for it to explode next time before entering the market, it will be too late, so you can only ambush in advance, and now AI stocks such as Nvidia are in the limelight, so instead of chasing the hot coins that have already exploded, it is better to ambush some that have not started, plus other sectors have almost risen, so it is very likely to fill the gap. Pepe and wif have been mentioned to you many times before, pepe went up first. Wif has also been catching up recently. Let's get back to the point. There is a positive news. The sports sector leader CHZ has a good increase before every big competition. The European Cup will be held on June 14th, which is only two weeks away. So you can buy on dips and sell on rallies a few days before the European Cup. You should clear all your positions by June 14th at the latest. Because this sector is only popular a few times a year, it will be a mess after the popularity. So this time, you can do a short-term trade and leave. Don't buy ENA for the time being, because it will unlock 3.6% in 4 days, which is a small negative. On the other hand, OP will unlock and complete, and there should be negative news to start a rebound. In addition, don't forget the PCE inflation data that the Federal Reserve values ​​the most at 8:30 pm on Friday.He is concerned about the currency circle

The next hot spot in the BTC sector rotation is him. This is how smart money operates. AI is about to rise. Recently, Bitcoin has been jumping up and down, and many people have lost their way. So how do smart money on the chain operate? Let's take a look. Look at the picture. Short-term retail investors are excluded from the picture. Only the changes in long-term smart money positions are shown. It is relatively clear to use it to judge the direction of the general trend. These people basically start selling at high points in the bull market, and then accumulate chips when the prices are lower. They are all relatively accurate, especially at the peak in March. Many people thought that Bitcoin would take off directly after breaking through 69,000, but the crazy selling of these smart money in the early stage really made them escape the top. However, starting from the past few weeks, these investors are obviously increasing their positions again, and the speed of increase can be said to be very fast. This means that they believe that the current coin price is at a low position and there will be greater gains in the future. Therefore, the current pullback is only temporary, and the bull market will start at any time. From the perspective of short-term behavior, the currency circle still has a large upward space, because historical laws tell us that as long as the short-term profit and loss ratio stands firm at 0, it will most likely rebound to 0.25, or even above 0.3. On the contrary, the short-term rise is only halfway through now, so both short-term and long-term on-chain data have proved that there will be greater gains in the future. So I hope that these two data can help you sort out the current unclear situation. #MegadropLista #5月市场关键事件

Analysis of the Mentougou BTC incident, first let's analyze a piece of hot news at present. The first piece of news is a piece of news that just came out yesterday, which is the Mentougou incident. At that time, it had a very big impact on our circle. So we won't talk about the Mentougou incident in detail, let's just talk about its impact. First of all, its address now has a total of more than 800,000 bitcoins. This address is now starting to transfer out, but when will it be sold? No one knows how much it will be sold. So we have seen that it has started to go down in the past two days. Although it has gradually recovered, it does not mean that the negative news has landed. Because they are just transferring this B back and forth now, he has not sold it. If he sells it one day, of course we don't know when, so this is a black swan event. Once the Mentougou address is detected and there is a suspicion of selling, then there will definitely be a big drop or even a sharp drop. Remember this sentence, that is, once he starts to sell, there will definitely be a big drop. So when will he sell? It's not clear, unless you know them, right? He will give you a heads-up in advance, and this is also the time. But I can tell you how much selling pressure he can cause now? If all the bitcoins are sold, we conservatively estimate that it can sell for 10 billion US dollars. Last year, Grayscale crashed the market. It seems that the price of Bitcoin crashed after it reached 40,000 or 40,000, right? He sold a lot. The pulse pressure caused by Grayscale was relatively large, and it also dropped a lot. But Grayscale held up that time, and if Mentougou starts selling this time, as long as the market can hold up, it will fly higher in the later stage. So if he really starts selling, it is actually a long-term positive. So we see if the market can bear it. If it can bear it, it means that many people recognize this thing. #BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件

Mentougou's twists and turns are really scary. This is bad news, but you can't be sure when they will ship the goods. This has a relatively large impact on the trend of the big cake. #BTC走势分析

In addition to Pepe, there are two other memes that are very prominent recently, namely People and Turbo. First of all, People is a demon coin in everyone's mind. It grows very fast and stacks up very fast. However, we mentioned this to everyone in the live broadcast of the public class on April 30. The original words were that People is a project that will surprise you and is a project that will definitely rise. We also told everyone that it is worth considering when the price of Big Pie is below 60,000. Then on May 1st, Big Pie was below 60,000, and a friend bought it and got three times the meat. People, as you can see from the name, is very democratic. Why is the meme so strong in this round? It represents retail investors, a track with the public as the core, and it is out of the circle. Therefore, everyone is willing to play, so when People was launched, it was very popular. I remember that it rose two or three times in three days. That was very early. It should be at the end of 22 years. I forgot. We also talked about that time period at that time. This is the essential logic of this round of mini-sectors represented by it. Although ETH, as the leader of altcoins, rose by 20% in one day, the performance of many altcoins is still not optimistic, especially the more technologically advanced projects are the more rubbish, including the valuable ones that are now trapped, while meme coins are different. As long as there is heat and consensus, they will keep rushing. So this is what we are talking about now. Now we are talking about this traditional altcoin sector. Compared with the meme sector, some people say that meme is not good, some say that meme is good, some say that altcoins are good, and some say that altcoins are not good. But in my opinion, both have opportunities. The market still has the same saying. It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white. It is a good cat if it catches mice. At some point, we don’t need to pay attention to the long-term performance of the project. We only need to pay attention to which project is a good target and can make us money at a certain point in time. Right? This is the core. Then we have to separate this logical aspect. #PEPE市值超越LTC #山寨币热点 #5月市场关键事件