男神讲趋势

Dear crypto friends, I am Old Lin, who has been deeply involved in the crypto market for six years! Today, I must remind everyone that on the UNI candlestick chart, there is a giant whale 'distorted by losses' lying there. If it moves even a little, the entire market will shake three times. The latest data is heart-wrenching: a big player went all in on UNI on the day of the positive news in November, and now they are facing a direct loss of 580%, with 1.93 million dollars going down the drain, making them the most tragic 'bag holder' in the bullish camp. Don't rush to scroll away, in the next three minutes, Old Lin will explain why this heavily trapped giant whale has become the 'roadblock' on UNI's rebound path.

前几天有个新手粉丝甩我一张截图：“阿哲，你看SHIB跌得像条被雨浇透的柴犬，是不是该把钱包里那点货全清了？”我一看，价格确实惨,比2021年的高光时刻跌了快九成，连去年的高点都够不着零头。但要是只看K线就喊“Meme币已死”，那可真是把加密市场的水想太浅了。
作为盯了三年链上数据的老炮，我今天就掏点真东西：那些让你慌到想割肉的“坏消息”背后，藏着三个足以改写SHIB命运的关键信号。
先别急着哭：暴跌背后的“反常识”数据
现在全网都在传“SHIB没人玩了”，证据就是日交易量比去年高点降了六成多。但我打开链上监控工具一看，当场笑出了声,每日活跃地址居然涨了3.9%。这就好比说“这家餐馆没人去”，结果后厨的盘子洗都洗不过来，你信吗？
这里面的门道很简单：巨鲸在跑路，但散户在抄底。持有超10万亿枚的“大老板”从12个降到5个，可与此同时，Coinbase那边有个匿名钱包一天就把持仓翻了倍，现在揣着近2000亿枚。更有意思的是销毁数据，8月份那波5800%的销毁率暴涨还没凉透，最近又突然冲了个530%的涨幅，3753万枚直接永久“蒸发”。算下来，现在已经有410万亿枚SHIB被销毁，流通盘越收越紧，这可是通缩货币的核心底气。
说句实在的，加密市场从来都是“巨鲸唱空偷偷买，散户跟风割在地板”。光看价格跌就缴械，跟看天气预报说下雨就把伞扔了一样傻。
别光盯着价格：SHIB的“转型生死战”打得怎么样？
当然我也不吹彩虹屁，SHIB的问题确实扎眼。最大的坑就是那个被寄予厚望的二层网络Shibarium，说出来都有点丢人——开发者才18个，总锁仓量连Base网络的万分之一都不到，主流稳定币更是连个影子都没有。前阵子ShibaSwap还被黑客盯上，桥接服务一停，不少人以为这网络直接凉透了。
但把生态扒开看，又能发现亮点。ShibaSwap的锁仓量在5月份悄悄涨了14%，从394万冲到450万；Shibarium的日交易量稳定在450万笔以上，这说明不是没人用，是还没到爆发的时候。社区最近也没闲着，1月份推的治理代币TREAT已经开始落地功能，新出的WOOF Wars挖矿游戏，把“质押”改成“投票赚钱”，硬是把沉寂的社群又盘活了不少。
这转型就像柴犬学握手，看着笨手笨脚，但只要在进步，就比躺着不动强。比起那些只会靠表情包圈钱的空气币，SHIB至少在往“实用币”的路上爬。
2026年SHIB会消失吗？我的三个预判
回到大家最关心的问题：这货明年会不会彻底凉透？我的结论是：死不了，但想回到2021年的风光难如登天。
先说好的一面：151万个持有钱包不是闹着玩的，“SHIB军团”这股凝聚力，比很多项目的技术白皮书都管用。历史上比这惨的币多了去了，狗狗币当年跌得只剩零头，现在不照样能被马斯克喊起来？只要社区还在，就有翻身的可能。
但坏消息也很致命。首先是持币太集中，前100个地址攥着六成多的流通量，相当于几个人手里拿着开关，想拉就拉想砸就砸，普通投资者根本没话语权。其次是应用场景太窄，现在主要还是用来买NFT、玩链游，跟狗狗币能买特斯拉比，差着十万八千里。最关键的是，现在市场风向变了，以前靠“可爱”“有梗”就能涨，现在大家都盯着“能不能用”“有没有实际价值”，SHIB的“情绪驱动”逻辑越来越不管用了。
基于这些，我给SHIB画了三个未来：
乐观版（概率20%）：大牛市来了，Shibarium突然爆火，有大厂愿意接它当支付方式，价格冲回0.00004美元不是梦；
中性版（概率50%）：市场不温不火，开发团队慢慢磨，生态能稳住但涨不动，价格在0.000005到0.00001之间晃悠；
悲观版（概率30%）：熊市持续，开发没突破，资金全跑去追AI概念币，SHIB慢慢变成“僵尸币”，价格跌出新低但不会彻底消失。
最后说句掏心窝的：别当赌徒，要当猎人
有人问我“现在该不该买SHIB”，我从来不会直接说“买”或“卖”授人以鱼不如授人以渔。你要是想靠它发大财，我劝你省省，这跟赌大小没区别；但要是拿点闲钱，想跟着看看Meme币的转型能不能成，那记得盯紧两个指标：Shibarium的开发者数量和稳定币接入情况，这两个才是真·生命线。
加密市场最有意思的地方就是，永远没有“盖棺定论”。2021年谁能想到一条柴犬能涨两千万倍？现在也没人敢说它一定凉。
我把SHIB的实时链上监控链接放在了粉丝群，想蹲数据异动的直接加群拿。关注我@男神讲趋势 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
$ETH

Don't swipe away! Friends who open the market software now are witnessing not ordinary fluctuations, but the most exciting 'real-life gambling' in the crypto circle this year. The big boss is holding 11,920,000 USD, pinning himself on the death line of ETH at 3083 USD, while the entire market acts as the referee!
This morning's market plunge probably made many people throw up their breakfast. Amid cries of 'it's over, it's over,' the big boss suddenly performed an operation: within an hour, he poured tens of millions into long positions and publicly revealed his 'safety line' at 3083 USD. If it breaks, he will liquidate immediately. This operation is crazier than bungee jumping without a safety harness.

This morning, when you opened the market software, did you take a sharp breath? Are the long positions in your hand as cold as ice cubes just taken out of the fridge?
Don't panic, first give the old fans a like. Yesterday, I repeatedly emphasized that the rebound during the day was purely a 'paper tiger'. It looks fierce but lacks real strength, and the US market will definitely face heavy blows. Sure enough, ETH directly broke through the 3000 mark last night, with a minimum drop to 2890, perfectly fulfilling the prediction. Now, some people must be sweating: is this going to drop directly through the floor, or can we wait for a counterattack? As an analyst who has been in the industry for five years, I'll make it clear today and guide you through tonight's key battle.

“The account can refine oil, getting up at three in the morning to supplement the margin” In today’s crypto circle, half the people are probably cursing, while the other half are secretly delighted. When BTC fell below 86,000 and ETH broke through 3,000, my retail fan group on my phone exploded with screenshots all showing 'one-click liquidation' operation records. But as a veteran who has been watching the market for five years, I dare say: those who cut losses now will cry tomorrow when chasing high prices.
First, let’s pour a bucket of 'cold water' on everyone and take a look at the real data at the moment, don’t be misled by the panic in the group:
Bitcoin: Current price 85,890 USD, down more than 4 points in 10 hours, the support level of 85,000 has indeed been broken, but the RSI indicator has already dropped below 30, which is technically called 'oversold to the bone', just like a strong man being pressed down and beaten, his strength has long been exhausted.

Family! The "deep water bomb" that just exploded on-chain, if you haven't seen it, quickly sit tight and hold on. A few days ago, the mysterious giant whale was frantically shorting ETH, and today they directly staged a "limit turn to pick someone up", the operation was so impressive that I spilled my coffee!
Let's get to the hard data, this is not hearsay: just 3 hours ago, on-chain addresses clearly showed that this person, who had borrowed 66,000 ETH to short, suddenly turned their guns around. After pulling out 85 million stablecoins from a decentralized lending platform, they rushed to the trading platform and immediately swept away 38,000 ETH. At current prices, this move directly cost nearly 1.2 billion RMB!

Don't swipe away! If you're holding a monthly salary of several thousand and drooling over the K-line on your phone screen, thinking that the crypto world is a 'cash machine' that can change your fate, then this article might help you lose less than a car, or even preserve your family's harmony. As a 'veteran' who has been rolling in this circle for eight years, I will introduce myself: I used to count every penny even when buying milk tea, and now I rely on trading for a decent living. However, the bloody history of this journey could fill a book (Encyclopedia of Pit Avoidance in the Crypto World).
The story begins in 2017, when I was still a worker squeezing into the subway every day, with a monthly salary of 5500. After deducting rent and food expenses, the remaining money was barely enough to hesitate over buying a new piece of clothing. Seeing others around me achieving 'fruit freedom' with 'pomelos', I was so envious that I couldn't sleep. I immediately decided: I would invest every month when I got my salary, not believing I couldn't make it through. Looking back now, I realize I was as naive as a three-year-old, thinking that as long as I 'persevered', I could win, but I hadn't even read a single page of the project's white paper completely. In the end, it was naturally a 'fruitless endeavor', and the money I invested had almost vanished without a trace.

To be honest, every time I see someone posting screenshots of 'doubling their investment in three months,' I want to laugh. That's not skill; it's luck hitting them in the face. But if you've been in this circle for over a year and your account hasn't seen the shadow of 500,000, especially after experiencing continuous losses and wanting to smash your computer while staring at the candlesticks, if you dare to read this heartfelt article and follow it, you will definitely laugh out loud next time you review. Let's get straight to the point and discuss how to adjust your mindset after the most frustrating part of trading mainstream assets like ETH: 'How to regain your mindset after consecutive losses.'
I had a dark history two years ago: I hit stop-loss four times in a row on ETH, and during the last closing, my hands were shaking, watching my account shrink, and all I could think was, 'Has my trading system failed?' 'Will opening a position again be even worse?' Later, while drinking with a friend who does quantitative trading on Wall Street, I realized that no one in this industry can win all the time. Even top traders have a win rate just above 40%, but they can still profit by a 3:1 risk-reward ratio. The core of it is not treating stop-loss as a failure.

A few days ago, I saw someone in the community crying out: 'I got up at 3 AM to chase the rise, and by dawn I was trapped. Is this crypto world specially designed to harvest champions like me who stay up late?' This statement hit me right in the pain points from three years ago. Back then, I also watched the market at midnight, cut losses in the morning, and chased highs in the afternoon. By the end of the month, when I calculated, my capital had shrunk faster than a waterfall.
Later, after much pain, I dug out over 200 records of losses and repeatedly reviewed them. I finally figured out a set of operating logic that is 'stupid to the extreme' yet absurdly stable. It's not some profound candlestick theory, just following market sentiment and timing. Now, I wake up at 9 AM to glance at the market and set an alarm at 3 PM to make decisions, which has surprisingly raised my win rate to nearly 100%. Today, I am sharing my 8 ironclad rules, all of which are practical tips that you can directly copy.

别再信“梭哈一把定乾坤”的鬼话了！我见过凌晨三点爆仓哭晕在电脑前的小伙子，也陪过把房子抵押进去最后妻离子散的老板,而我，一个加密圈骨灰级玩家，从10万本金滚到千万身家，靠的从来不是运气，是“怂到骨子里”的操作铁律。今天把压箱底的保命绝活掏出来，建议先存再看，省得回头追着我要存档。
先抛个颠覆认知的观点：加密市场里死得最快的，不是新手，是“总觉得自己能抓顶抄底”的半吊子老手。我见过太多人拿着“技术分析大全”当圣经，结果连最基本的资金管理都搞不明白,满仓冲进去，一个回调就被洗出局，转头又骂市场割韭菜。说真的，你那不是炒股，是给交易所送手续费。
我的保命第一招：把钱拆成5份，别当“全仓勇士”
刚入圈时我也犯过浑，10万本金一把梭，涨了笑成傻子，跌了蹲在阳台抽烟。后来吃过一次亏,一个项目突然暴雷，一天亏了60%，差点把刚攒的结婚钱赔进去。从那以后我就立了规矩：所有资金分成5等份，每次只动一份。
这里面有个简单到幼儿园都能算的账：每次进场都设10%的止损线，就算判断错了，亏的也只是总资金的2%,就算倒霉到连错5次，总资金也就少10%，还有翻身的余地。但如果做对了，止盈线至少设10%，算下来一次对的收益，就能覆盖两次错的亏损。这么算下来，你还会觉得“被套”是没办法避免的事吗？
提高胜率的核心：别跟趋势对着干，做“顺势的懒汉”
很多人天天研究“抄底技巧”，我就想问一句：下跌的时候抄底，跟下雨天站在树下等雷劈有啥区别？去年有个粉丝跟我说，他在某主流币从2万跌到1万5的时候抄底，觉得“跌到位了”，结果跌到8000的时候哭着问我要不要割。
记住，加密市场里最不缺的就是“反弹陷阱”。下跌趋势里的每一次上涨，都可能是主力放的诱饵；而上涨趋势里的每一次回落，才是给你上车的机会。打个比方，这就像坐车,车在往前开，你追着车跑肯定费劲，但等车靠站停一下再上去，是不是轻松多了？低吸永远比抄底安全，这道理不用我再掰开揉碎了讲吧？
还有个铁律：暴涨过的币，别碰！别管它是主流还是小众，连续涨了三四倍的项目，就像吹到最大的气球，再用力就炸了。去年某动物币火的时候，有人跟我说“再涨一倍就卖”，结果刚进场就跌了70%，现在还套在里面。你以为你是捡漏，其实你是接盘,主力就等着你们这些“赌徒”来接最后一棒。
技术指标别瞎用：MACD和成交量，够用就行
现在网上的技术分析教程花里胡哨，一会儿说“金叉买死叉卖”，一会儿又说“背离才是信号”，把新手绕得晕头转向。我用了10年，就总结出最简单的用法：MACD看0轴就行。
0轴下方的金叉，就像病人刚退烧，别着急庆祝；但如果金叉后突破了0轴，那就是身体好转的信号，可以进场看看。反过来，0轴上方出现死叉，不管K线多好看，都赶紧撤,这就像天气转凉，你总不能穿着短袖硬扛吧？
比MACD更重要的是成交量，这才是市场的“真心话”。K线可以做假，但成交量骗不了人。低位的时候如果突然放量上涨，说明有大资金进场，这时候可以盯紧；但如果高位放量却不涨，那就是主力在偷偷出货，别犹豫，跑就对了。去年某项目涨到历史高点时，成交量突然放大3倍，我当天就清了仓，果不其然，三天后就开始暴跌。
最后说两个“反人性”铁律，记不住别进场
第一：亏损的时候别补仓！这是我见过最多的“自杀式操作”。有人亏了5%，觉得“再补点就能摊低成本”，结果越补越亏，最后把本金都填进去。记住，市场不会因为你“亏得多”就同情你,亏损补仓，本质上是用更多的钱去赌一个错误的判断，跟跳楼时拽着绳子往下跳有啥区别？反过来，盈利的时候可以适当加仓，让利润“滚雪球”，这才是正确的操作。
第二：只做“趋势向上”的币，别当“接盘侠”。我平时选股就看四条线：3日线向上，适合短线快进快出；30日线向上，做中线布局；84日线向上，耐心等主升浪；120日线向上，那就是可以长期持有的“压舱石”。那些连30日线都站不稳的币，就算吹得天花乱坠，我也碰都不碰,就像一个连路都走不稳的人，你还指望他跑马拉松？
收尾干货：每天花10分钟复盘，比盯盘12小时管用
很多人天天盯盘，从开盘盯到收盘，眼睛都熬红了，结果还是亏。其实真正赚钱的人，都不会这么“费眼睛”。我每天收盘后只花10分钟复盘：看看持仓的项目逻辑有没有变（比如是不是出了利空消息），周线走势是不是符合预期，趋势有没有反转的信号。
举个例子，上个月我持有的一个项目，突然出了“团队成员离职”的消息，虽然当天价格没跌，但我复盘时发现周线已经出现了死叉，第二天一早就清了仓,没过三天，这个项目就跌了30%。你看，复盘不是走形式，是给你的资金“买保险”。
最后送大家一句话：加密市场里，稳定盈利的秘诀从来不是“抓牛币”，而是“活下来”。别人疯狂的时候，你多一分冷静；别人都在割肉跑路的时候，你看看有没有捡漏的机会。把这8条铁律记在心里，别再当“被割的韭菜”下次别人问你怎么在加密圈赚钱，你也能笑着说“我靠‘不贪’活着”。
关注我@男神讲趋势 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
$ETH

Stop believing in the myth of 'getting rich overnight'! I've been in the crypto world for ten years, witnessing the cries of liquidation at three in the morning and experiencing the ecstasy of doubling my account. From an initial capital of 100,000 to a wealth of 10 million, it wasn't luck that got me here, but a set of methods that are 'extremely simple' yet remarkably stable. Recently, I shared my insights with a new apprentice, and this guy doubled his capital in just three months. Today, I won't hold back and will share all the valuable tips. I suggest you like and save this, so you won't forget where to find it later!
First, let me be honest with you, the reason I've lasted this long boils down to one word: 'value life'. Many people come in wanting to gamble everything for quick money, but the result is often 'money is gone, but people are still here'. I suffered this loss in my early years, losing half a year's profit in one go. Only later did I realize that the crypto market is not lacking in opportunities; what it lacks is the capital to endure until the opportunity arises. These 8 ironclad rules have helped me avoid major pitfalls, and if you can take them to heart, you can at least save yourself three years of detours.

“Borrowing 60,000 to enter, achieving an 8-digit number in 4 years.” If this was said 3 years ago, it would probably have been dismissed by newcomers in the crypto world as a gimmick for harvesting profits. But today, sitting in front of the screen typing, I am 35 years old, having personally experienced the crazy surge of 2020 and weathered the waterfall crash of 2022. My experience, bought with real money, tells you: the crypto market is never a gambling table, but rather a battleground that requires you to use your brain.
When I first entered the market in 2019, I didn't even understand the difference between a white paper and a shitcoin, relying entirely on screenshots from 'experts' in forums to dive in. My first short-term trade ended in failure; I chased after a certain 'star project' and bought in just as it plummeted by 20%. That night, I stared at the K-line and couldn’t sleep until dawn, almost smashed my phone. It was only later that I realized this field is no different from martial arts; relying solely on passion and courage will eventually lead to being ground into the dirt by the market.

Last week at an offline gathering in Shenzhen, a recent graduate pulled me aside and asked, "Bro, how much have you made from trading crypto in ten years?" I pointed to my江景房 outside the window and then pulled out my phone to browse my asset screenshots, 30 million. His eyes widened, and he started chasing me for 'insider information.'
I laughed on the spot: "If it were based on insider information, I would have been in there stepping on the sewing machine long ago. My principal is only 100,000, and I can turn it into 30 million, all thanks to a method that's 'so stupid that no one believes it.' The craziest time, I went from 50,000 to 15 million in three months, not through gambling, but by adhering to the rules I endured."

Stop believing those "three-day trading miracles"! As someone who's been battered in the crypto space for ten years, I've witnessed the wailing of liquidation at three in the morning and encountered victims who fell for insider deals. As for me, I went from almost losing my initial investment of 50,000 to now owning two houses and having a seven-figure savings, relying not on luck, but on a survival rule that is so "foolish that no one believes it, yet becomes more effective the more you use it." Today, I'm sharing my hard-earned experiences to help beginners avoid three years of pitfalls, and maybe even help seasoned traders fill in some knowledge gaps.
First Trap: The smarter you try to be in a bull market, the worse you'll end up.

Yesterday, a newcomer in the market asked me, 'Bro, is it foolish to be fully invested now?' I glanced at the eighteen-line air coins in his holdings and almost spat my tea on the screen. Kid, this is not bottom-fishing; you are offering your head to the scythe! As someone who has been in the crypto space for ten years and survived three bull-bear cycles, today, let me speak some hard truths from the heart. Those who understand might really be able to afford a new car next year.
Let's cut to the chase: this is not the end of the bull market; it's at most a 'half-time break to drink some water.' My long-time followers know that I often say there is a '431 curse' in the crypto world. A complete cycle takes 4 years, 3 years of declines that make you doubt life, and 1 year of increases that make you forget your last name. In this precious 1 year, the first 8 months are all about 'grinding people down,' with the main players wielding their little whips to wash the market back and forth. Today, up 5 points, tomorrow down 8 points, all to shake off the impatient retail investors.

A few days ago at a dinner, a newcomer kept asking me, 'Teacher, how did you go from three liquidations to now making profits consistently? Do you have insider information?' I didn't answer directly; I took out my phone to show him the trading interface, just three ordinary moving averages. He frowned on the spot and said, 'Who can't read this stuff?'
I completely understand this disdain. Ten years ago, I plunged into the cryptocurrency market with all my savings, just like 90% of the new entrants today, treating community messages as sacred orders and considering 'big shots' recommendations as lifelines. After three years, I lost more than 2 million in principal, and during the worst times, I had to borrow rent from friends. Until one night, staring at the chaotic lines on the candlestick chart, I suddenly realized: there are no secrets in this market; I just complicated simple things.

Brothers, let me throw out a heartbreaking statistic: In the crypto market, less than 10% of people can make stable profits. But I have a fan who, using a method that seems ridiculously silly, has managed to achieve an almost perfect win rate, earning enough money last year to cover a down payment. Today, I will break down his core logic, along with six 'survival mantras' I’ve summarized from five years of market observation, so that newcomers can directly avoid two years of detours!
Let me clarify: I never teach the 'get rich overnight' tricks. The louder the 'shortcut' is shouted in the crypto circle, the more likely it is to be a thorny trap. The truly sustainable strategies are often hidden in 'anti-human' details, especially these three things that you absolutely should not touch; touching them once is highly likely to cost you tuition fees.

I just saw the Binance announcement while I was drinking coffee, and I almost spat it on the keyboard. This isn't just a delisting of trading pairs; it's clearly a cold shower for the wildly soaring altcoin market!
On December 23rd at 2 PM, this time must be remembered. The assets like DOT, ENA, and WIF that were all the rage recently, all leveraged trading pairs against stablecoin FD have been delisted, whether you are going all in or trying to be stable with a small amount, not a single trading pair left from the twenty or thirty. Don’t think this is a normal operation by the exchange; at this current stage where the huge whale liquidations are more frequent than eating, this move conceals a big signal.

A few days ago, I saw a young guy in the community crying: 'Chased high at three in the morning, got cut at seven in the morning, now staring at the account wanting to hit the wall.' Again, another newbie crushed by the market. To be honest, in this circle where the crash happens more reliably than an alarm clock, I've been through a lot in ten years. From being a complete newbie who couldn't even distinguish between K-lines and electrocardiograms, to now being able to calmly watch the market fluctuate, it all relies on the pitfalls I've stepped in and the money I've lost, which have led me to develop 8 'life-saving iron rules.' Today, I’m sharing these heartfelt insights with you all, and those who understand can at least save three years of detours.

Family! Who understands? Ten years ago, when I rushed into the cryptocurrency world with 50,000 yuan, I thought I was the chosen one, but I was directly pressed to the ground by the market, losing so much that I was almost left with nothing! Watching the numbers in my account go from 50,000 to negative, and then biting the bullet to gather a few tens of thousands to re-enter the market, I finally understood: the cryptocurrency world is not a casino, it’s a battlefield! Those who survive are never relying on luck, but on brains and hard rules!
I have personally experienced three bull and bear markets, and the pitfalls I've encountered could circle the Earth. From being a 'retail investor' chasing highs and cutting losses, to completely turning around in 2024, achieving eight-digit wealth freedom in two years. Today, I'm sharing my hard-earned insights with you, all of which are bloody experiences; those who understand it, the next one to make a comeback will be you!