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France issues a heavy reminder? If the US military forcibly intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, the high-level military analysis conducted by France has shocked all parties.

This report is not casually thought up; it is based on internal Pentagon data and joint simulation exercises from several top think tanks, especially the baseline scenario set by CSIS in 2023, which directly lays out the dilemmas the US military may face in the event of intervention in the Taiwan Strait.

The core conclusion of the report is quite clear: once China implements a blockade against Taiwan, US military aircraft taking off from bases in Japan and Guam will face an unprecedented survival crisis, with the level of threat far exceeding any previous simulations.

The US military's air force deployment in the Asia-Pacific region appears strong but actually hides fatal flaws. Japan and Guam, as the two most forward bases of the US military, are only a few hundred to two thousand kilometers from the Taiwan Strait. This distance may seem ideal, but it is completely exposed to China's medium-range missile strike range.

Weapons like the Dongfeng-17, a hypersonic weapon, don’t need to fly the entire distance; they only need to ascend to the edge of the atmosphere and then dive, reaching the runway in just over ten minutes.

What’s even more terrifying is the density of the PLA's missiles. CSIS's simulations show that within the first 24 hours of conflict, just the Dongfeng-15 and Dongfeng-16 can launch three rounds of saturation strikes against Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, with each round exceeding 50 missiles. This density of strikes is something even Israel’s Iron Dome system cannot withstand.

The US military's F-35 and F-22 are indeed advanced, but these stealth fighters are overly reliant on airfields. Kadena Air Base has only two main runways; as soon as a few large craters are created, all aircraft must stay grounded.

Moreover, it’s worth mentioning that the PLA is now equipped with graphite bombs, which do not need to explode; the carbon fibers released can short-circuit the entire power grid, preventing the electric doors of the hangars from opening and rendering the refueling pumps useless. Even the most advanced fighter jets become piles of scrap metal.

The situation in Guam is even worse. While Andersen Air Force Base has multiple runways, it is closer to the mainland, and the Dongfeng-26 can cover it directly. Additionally, there are no underground hangars on the island, so all aircraft are parked outdoors, making them sitting ducks.

The psychological pressure on US pilots is particularly pronounced in the simulations. CSIS’s exercise shows that when pilots learn that 80% of the base's air defense systems have been destroyed and that each tanker is locked on by three times as many missiles, the refusal rate to take off can soar to 40%. This psychological collapse cannot be solved through training; after all, no one wants to fly a fighter jet worth hundreds of millions of dollars to their death.

More critically, the US military's maintenance capability in the Asia-Pacific region simply cannot keep up. In the simulation, after one F-35 is damaged, it takes 72 hours to get parts from Japan, while the PLA can launch the next wave of attacks within half an hour.

The PLA's anti-access system has now woven a tightly sealed net. There are high-resolution satellites monitoring 24 hours a day, underwater sonar arrays in the sea, and the WZ-8 drone can fly to an altitude of 30,000 meters, directly peering into the hangars at Guam base using synthetic aperture radar.

As soon as US military aircraft taxi off the runway, the PLA's command center can receive real-time images, clearly seeing what missiles are loaded. This one-way transparency renders the US military's surprise attack tactics completely ineffective, turning them into live targets.

The French report particularly emphasizes a neglected detail: the US military's ammunition reserves cannot sustain high-intensity consumption. In the simulation, the Tomahawk missiles launched from Japan and Guam were exhausted by the third day, while the PLA’s rocket forces could maintain a launch rate of 200 missiles per day.

More critically, the US military’s precision-guided bombs heavily rely on GPS, but China’s Beidou system, in conjunction with electronic warfare units, can directly interfere with the US military's missile signals.

CSIS's simulations indicate that under strong electromagnetic interference, the hit rate of the US military's JDAM bombs would plummet from 90% to 30%, essentially equivalent to throwing them blindly.

The US military's logistics supply line during wartime is essentially a death corridor. Transport ships from Hawaii to Guam must pass through the Philippine Sea, which happens to be the best ambush point for PLA submarines.

The 094-class nuclear submarine carries the YJ-18 anti-ship missile with a range of over 500 kilometers, which the US Navy's escort fleet can hardly defend against.

In the simulation, a convoy of five transport ships was attacked before entering Guam, with three sunk, and although the remaining two managed to dock, 80% of the supplies on board were destroyed in the attack. This supply efficiency makes it difficult to maintain daily operations at the base, let alone support air combat.

French military analysts pointed out a brutal reality in the report: there simply aren't enough US military pilots available. Modern air combat requires frequent sorties, but a pilot can only fly a maximum of two sorties per day; exceeding this limit will decrease reaction speed.

CSIS’s simulations show that after a week of sustained high-intensity air combat, US military pilots' fatigue levels will reach dangerous levels, increasing the risk of friendly fire by three times. The PLA has the home-field advantage, with shorter pilot rotation periods, and can even take off directly from mainland airports, achieving combat efficiency far superior to that of the US military.

What troubles the US military the most is the PLA's tactical flexibility. The French report cites Pentagon documents indicating that the PLA has even repurposed civilian drones into attack weapons, with a drone costing just a few hundred dollars able to carry bombs to attack tankers.

This “swarm tactic” keeps the US military's air defense systems on their toes. In the simulation, a KC-135 tanker had to urgently dump fuel to evade a swarm of drones, but still ended up being hit. What’s worse is that these drones can also disrupt US military communication channels, throwing the entire formation into chaos.

Finally, the French simulation arrived at a disturbing conclusion: if the US military forcibly intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, it will not only be unable to stop the PLA's actions but may also lose its military presence in the Western Pacific.

The report mentions that after two weeks of simulated conflict, the US military's aircraft loss rate in the Asia-Pacific region reached 60%, with over half destroyed on the ground.

More critically, the infrastructure in Japan and Guam suffered devastating blows, and rebuilding will require at least five years. This cost is simply unbearable for the United States, no wonder the French report has shocked all parties.

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