鲨鱼恶霸

Now directly enter long near 109000, with a win rate of over 70%. EMA7: 111843 is short-term resistance, and we will continue to look for a fluctuating market.
Take Profit: 111,500-112,000
Stop Loss: 107,000

EMA: Short-term moving average (EMA7) is above the price, long-term moving averages (EMA99, 120) form support, the trend is bearish but close to reversal.

MACD: MACD line (12,26) 56.55, signal line -1,290.18, the histogram has shifted from negative to slightly positive, indicating that bullish momentum is emerging.
#btc #BTC走势分析

Today, the shark will share the 4-hour K-line trend and trading suggestions.

Recently, the K-line has shown a fluctuating pattern, and the 4-hour level may form a double bottom (76,606 USD and the March 18 low) or an ascending triangle, indicating that the short-term adjustment may be nearing its end.

MA5 (86,524.05) has crossed above MA25 (84,646.91) and MA97 (83,671.40), with a short-term golden cross in moving averages, indicating a strengthening short-term trend. The price is above all moving averages, showing the dominance of bullish strength, but it needs to break through the 89,000-90,000 USD resistance to confirm further upward movement.

Support levels:
86,000-85,000 USD near MA5 and MA25, short-term support.
82,000-83,000 USD near MA97 and previous fluctuation lows, stronger support.

Resistance levels: 89,000-90,000 USD (recent highs and psychological level)

Trading suggestions:
Build positions in batches: 50% at 86,000-85,000 USD, 50% at 82,000 USD (if it drops to this level).
Stop loss: 84,000 USD (below short-term support).
Target: 90,000-92,000 USD (short-term), 95,000-98,000 USD (after April 2).
#BTC走势分析 #BTC #btc走勢

Today, the chance of not lowering interest rates should be 100%, and how should we interpret Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech tonight?

Without beating around the bush, let's get to the conclusion: Powell's speech today is most likely to lean hawkish.

Why hawkish, you may ask? The U.S. stock market has already dropped significantly recently, for instance, Tesla has fallen by 50%, and the cryptocurrency market has also seen considerable declines. What if a more hawkish stance leads to a market crash?

The Federal Reserve's position: being hawkish does not equal intentionally causing a crash. Choosing a hawkish tone does not mean they “want” the market to crash, but rather that they believe the current top priority is to control inflation, even if this may lead to short-term market turmoil. The reasons are as follows:

1. Inflation is a greater long-term threat.
For the Federal Reserve, the consequences of uncontrolled inflation are far more serious than the short-term drop in the stock market. If inflation expectations decouple (for example, due to worsening tariff policies or supply chain issues), it will lead to a wage-price spiral that ultimately harms the economic fundamentals and negatively affects the broader public. While the decline in the stock or crypto markets may affect investor sentiment, it mainly impacts asset holders, making the macro impact relatively manageable. Powell may believe that sacrificing short-term market stability for long-term inflation control is worthwhile.

2. The market has already partially digested hawkish expectations.
The decline in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies (like Tesla's 50% drop) has already reflected the market's expectations of hawkish policies. The adjustments anticipated from the end of 2024 to early 2025 may have already preemptively absorbed some of the impacts of interest rate hikes and tightening.

The Federal Reserve's statutory duties are “price stability” and “full employment,” not directly supporting the stock market.

In summary: The core purpose of Powell's hawkish speech is to suppress inflation expectations, not to intentionally cause a crash. They believe inflation is the biggest threat currently and are willing to let the market bear pressure in exchange for long-term stability. However, they are also closely monitoring economic and financial stability, and a crash is not the goal but rather a “tail risk” they are trying to avoid. Regarding Tesla's 50% drop and the decline in cryptocurrencies, the Federal Reserve may view this as a natural adjustment of high-risk assets that does not necessarily require immediate intervention. In today's speech, Powell may adopt a tough tone but will be careful not to ignite panic in the market. #美联储3月利率决议 #BTC

We can see that institutions have shifted from net outflows in the previous two weeks to net inflows in the past few days. Now, institutions are vigorously purchasing around 100,000 BTC, but large capital institutions are unlikely to engage in charity, which proves their long-term bullish outlook on BTC's performance in 2025. We just need to follow the direction set by the big players. Selling through DCA at a relatively high point (150,000-200,000) in 2025 is a good decision.

Moreover, the big players in ETH are also increasing their purchases. If we take a long-term view, Q1 will undoubtedly be the best quarter for ETH performance. Friends who have already built positions in ETH, please be patient until April.

Finally, let's take a look at the liquidation situation in recent days. From a historical high of 1.5 billion liquidations on December 9th to only 30 million liquidations yesterday, this time the deleveraging has been effective, and the next wave of market activity is not far off. Stay seated and hold on tight.

When KOLs started widespread promotion last week, it should have been run.

According to the BTC rainbow chart, by the end of February this year, a Bitcoin at #btc
114816$ is not considered expensive. If it can reach 83636$, it would be a very good buying point, but the probability is too low. Therefore, for those who haven't gotten in yet, buying on dips is the best strategy.