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笨小孩web3

终身学习,迭代进步;独立思考,币圈蓝军
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The 'real economic cost' of the Hormuz Strait blockade has already exceeded the limits that all parties can handle. The blockade needs to be lifted ASAP, and oil prices will drop back to the $70-80 range determined by supply and demand fundamentals.
The 'real economic cost' of the Hormuz Strait blockade has already exceeded the limits that all parties can handle. The blockade needs to be lifted ASAP, and oil prices will drop back to the $70-80 range determined by supply and demand fundamentals.
Crude Oil Long-Short Logic AnalysisLong-short logic analysis Bullish factors Substantial losses on the supply side are still accumulating. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted exports from major Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, resulting in a peak daily supply of about 12 to 15 million barrels of oil being unable to enter the market, which accounts for roughly 15% of global supply. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, it will take several months to restore normal transportation. The World Bank estimates that even if the supply disruptions end in May, energy prices will still soar by 24% throughout 2026. Inventory is getting drained fast, and the safety cushion is getting thinner. As of the week ending April 24, U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 6.234 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of a 231,000 barrel drop; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also decreased by 7.121 million barrels. U.S. refinery utilization rates have risen to 89.6%, gasoline inventories have fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, and distillate inventories are about 11% below the five-year average. JPMorgan points out that the global economy is consuming strategic reserves at a rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day. Once these buffers run out, oil prices will be forced to rise to levels that will necessitate demand reduction.

Crude Oil Long-Short Logic Analysis

Long-short logic analysis
Bullish factors
Substantial losses on the supply side are still accumulating. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted exports from major Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, resulting in a peak daily supply of about 12 to 15 million barrels of oil being unable to enter the market, which accounts for roughly 15% of global supply. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, it will take several months to restore normal transportation. The World Bank estimates that even if the supply disruptions end in May, energy prices will still soar by 24% throughout 2026.
Inventory is getting drained fast, and the safety cushion is getting thinner. As of the week ending April 24, U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 6.234 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of a 231,000 barrel drop; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also decreased by 7.121 million barrels. U.S. refinery utilization rates have risen to 89.6%, gasoline inventories have fallen for 11 consecutive weeks, and distillate inventories are about 11% below the five-year average. JPMorgan points out that the global economy is consuming strategic reserves at a rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day. Once these buffers run out, oil prices will be forced to rise to levels that will necessitate demand reduction.
$RAVE 12345, this market manipulation is just ridiculous.
$RAVE 12345, this market manipulation is just ridiculous.
Many people, including myself, have experienced significant losses that stem from this mentality. Initially, I wanted to speculate with a small position, but loss aversion led me to add to my position, thinking that the price should be around this based on historical prices. The more I lost, the more anxious I became, losing my rationality, and I started to trade excessively without regard for risk, ultimately leading to a margin call. For a long time, I was stuck in feelings of regret and hindsight bias, even though I reviewed my actions, I always felt that I should have seen the mistakes I made at the beginning. When I started trading again, I repeated the same mistakes because human nature is like this; capitalists know this all too well. Capitalists are not afraid of you winning; they are most afraid of you not playing at all. All of the above behaviors have been deeply studied in behavioral finance; they are classic behaviors, and market makers understand these principles profoundly. After experiencing several rounds of harvesting, you will fall into deep self-doubt, then stop trading, and even become depressed... You begin to realize that such operations are not investment but gambling. There is a classic saying: Wealth has two great enemies, one is risk, and the other is fear. The only way to counteract them is through learning; only then can you manage risk well, and establish your own trading model to overcome human weaknesses, and that is called investment.
Many people, including myself, have experienced significant losses that stem from this mentality. Initially, I wanted to speculate with a small position, but loss aversion led me to add to my position, thinking that the price should be around this based on historical prices. The more I lost, the more anxious I became, losing my rationality, and I started to trade excessively without regard for risk, ultimately leading to a margin call. For a long time, I was stuck in feelings of regret and hindsight bias, even though I reviewed my actions, I always felt that I should have seen the mistakes I made at the beginning. When I started trading again, I repeated the same mistakes because human nature is like this; capitalists know this all too well. Capitalists are not afraid of you winning; they are most afraid of you not playing at all. All of the above behaviors have been deeply studied in behavioral finance; they are classic behaviors, and market makers understand these principles profoundly.
After experiencing several rounds of harvesting, you will fall into deep self-doubt, then stop trading, and even become depressed... You begin to realize that such operations are not investment but gambling.
There is a classic saying: Wealth has two great enemies, one is risk, and the other is fear. The only way to counteract them is through learning; only then can you manage risk well, and establish your own trading model to overcome human weaknesses, and that is called investment.
大黑狗
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No. At first, I thought about making a few hundred bucks and then running away. My initial position was only $200, but later I got caught and started to increase my position stubbornly. I really didn't think I could get rich off this garbage coin. I still mainly play with ETH.
Awakening in the Human World
Awakening in the Human World
唐华斑竹
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Looking back at this conversation now, does anyone still think Han Han is arrogant? He is truly humble, with a mindset that looks down on the masses, accepting the ridicule and misunderstandings of thoughts that are like ants, while remaining calm. I wonder if the participants in this discussion, looking back now, will feel embarrassed because of this, or still be angry at Han Han's initial disdain. $ETH
How many people have calculated the amount of leverage? In fact, it is the amount of real money you invest in the market.
How many people have calculated the amount of leverage? In fact, it is the amount of real money you invest in the market.
我是沸羊羊
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Bullish
$TRUMP Buy now!!
3.33 bought 200,000, surged again before last year's dinner! This wave can earn 3 million with 80 dollars per order back to the peak!
Brother Sun has added another 100 million, following the big shot is definitely right, before the countdown ends the big shots will be scrambling to buy this coin, going long can also earn fees, market price more for him!!⬇️⬇️⬇️
{future}(TRUMPUSDT)
Respect the market; once an order is opened, you need to consider whether your money is still yours. Even if the unrealized gains are high, you must consider whether you can withdraw that money.
Respect the market; once an order is opened, you need to consider whether your money is still yours. Even if the unrealized gains are high, you must consider whether you can withdraw that money.
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Bearish
$RIVER Is this a pullback or a turn down this time? The unlocking pressure on the 22nd is quite significant.
$RIVER Is this a pullback or a turn down this time? The unlocking pressure on the 22nd is quite significant.
$TRUMP February 2, the dragon raises its head, Trump, give a little more strength.
$TRUMP February 2, the dragon raises its head, Trump, give a little more strength.
xrp applies for listing$XRP According to the latest announcement on March 18, 2026 (yesterday), Evernorth Holdings officially submitted the S-4 registration document to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), applying to be listed on **Nasdaq**. ​As the core business of this company is to establish a large XRP treasury, this is seen by the market as another milestone for XRP's entry into mainstream capital markets. ​📰 Core details of the news ​Main company: Evernorth Holdings (a newly established company backed by Arrington Capital and endorsed by Ripple Labs).

xrp applies for listing

$XRP
According to the latest announcement on March 18, 2026 (yesterday), Evernorth Holdings officially submitted the S-4 registration document to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), applying to be listed on **Nasdaq**.
​As the core business of this company is to establish a large XRP treasury, this is seen by the market as another milestone for XRP's entry into mainstream capital markets.
​📰 Core details of the news
​Main company: Evernorth Holdings (a newly established company backed by Arrington Capital and endorsed by Ripple Labs).
All traders have overconfidence. The more you learn, the more obvious the overconfidence becomes. Transactions are a reflection of differing opinions. Overconfidence makes people prone to ignoring risks and making excessive trades. In simple terms: buying when they shouldn't and selling when they shouldn't. The more they do, the more they lose. Reducing the number of trades is an effective measure. At the same time, thinking and viewing one's behavior from a third-party objective perspective also helps reduce the impact of overconfidence.
All traders have overconfidence.
The more you learn, the more obvious the overconfidence becomes.
Transactions are a reflection of differing opinions.
Overconfidence makes people prone to ignoring risks and making excessive trades.
In simple terms: buying when they shouldn't and selling when they shouldn't. The more they do, the more they lose.

Reducing the number of trades is an effective measure.
At the same time, thinking and viewing one's behavior from a third-party objective perspective also helps reduce the impact of overconfidence.
The biggest enemies of wealth: risk and fear. Keep learning and enhance your understanding. Do not overtrade. Do not let emotions take over. Reduce the chances of making mistakes. Manage risks well.
The biggest enemies of wealth: risk and fear.
Keep learning and enhance your understanding.
Do not overtrade.
Do not let emotions take over.
Reduce the chances of making mistakes.
Manage risks well.
The coin $TRUMP has not moved for 8 hours. When do you think it will move?
The coin $TRUMP has not moved for 8 hours. When do you think it will move?
Review on Profit Taking: 1. When a major trend shows fluctuations (significant pullback and then returning to high points, the peak is no longer slanted, resembling a deep, large V shape), consider closing positions or reducing holdings (adding some profit to the cost). 2. In terms of mindset: when anxiety and uncertainty arise, it is advisable to close positions or reduce holdings. The impact on sleep and the reverse market that decreases profits or affects mood are not worth the loss. (For a qualified trader, a good mental state and mindset are very important.) 3. Setting profit-taking lines in a high-profit fluctuation state is better than setting stop-loss lines. This is because both are likely to be triggered in a fluctuating state, and the difference in intermediate earnings can be quite significant. 4. When setting stop-loss lines, establish a multi-tiered ladder to prevent a crash from breaking through the stop-loss price. 5. At every stage, give yourself “5 minutes of deep thinking” time to view the current position objectively. 6. Good mindset: money can be earned endlessly, but it can be lost entirely. Selling out is better than incurring losses.
Review on Profit Taking:
1. When a major trend shows fluctuations (significant pullback and then returning to high points, the peak is no longer slanted, resembling a deep, large V shape), consider closing positions or reducing holdings (adding some profit to the cost).
2. In terms of mindset: when anxiety and uncertainty arise, it is advisable to close positions or reduce holdings. The impact on sleep and the reverse market that decreases profits or affects mood are not worth the loss. (For a qualified trader, a good mental state and mindset are very important.)
3. Setting profit-taking lines in a high-profit fluctuation state is better than setting stop-loss lines. This is because both are likely to be triggered in a fluctuating state, and the difference in intermediate earnings can be quite significant.
4. When setting stop-loss lines, establish a multi-tiered ladder to prevent a crash from breaking through the stop-loss price.
5. At every stage, give yourself “5 minutes of deep thinking” time to view the current position objectively.
6. Good mindset: money can be earned endlessly, but it can be lost entirely. Selling out is better than incurring losses.
Do you remember $TRUMP ? Is it familiar?
Do you remember $TRUMP ? Is it familiar?
After all, he is the president of the strongest country on Earth 🌏. $TRUMP 4 dollars is still very cheap.
After all, he is the president of the strongest country on Earth 🌏. $TRUMP 4 dollars is still very cheap.
Attention
Attention
Quoted content has been removed
Whether a road is blocked or not depends on its narrowest point, not its widest point.
Whether a road is blocked or not depends on its narrowest point, not its widest point.
互联网领路人
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If the highway is built like this, will there be no traffic jams?
Understand
Understand
AB Kuai Dong
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Let's Talk Simple $0G

1. Projects trading pre-contracts on Binance are basically top-tier; last year there was a wave of node sales, and the team raised a considerable amount of ETH, around 30 million USD.

2. Two co-founders and early employees, some of whom came from Conflux CFX, caught the wave of AI and public chain financing, and due to their experience in the crypto space, they secured significant early investments.

3. Last year, the team designed a tiered plan for community sales of nodes, which is also one of the largest sources of airdrop circulation for this 0G token issuance.

4. These node participants have an average cost of 0.23 u, corresponding to a valuation of 2.27 billion; even with a 33% opening unlock rule, this price on Binance pre-trading is definitely above water, but since it’s a tiered sale, everyone's specific costs are not uniform.

4. Although in practice, the public chain can roughly run at 11000 TPS, the project party has been claiming it has infinite TPS; in fact, this mainly depends on whether there are large-scale applications in the end. Currently, the few applications running on 0G have not seen a complete breakout, which is something all public chains have to face.

5. It is important to note that although the seed round valuation of 0G is 2 billion, the main large financing still comes from community nodes and seed round investors, as shown in the attached image:
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Bearish
55555, you must set a stop loss
55555, you must set a stop loss
BTCbabyone
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Completed, all completed
This is going to ruin my life
Beast
$MYX
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