Roman_Cassius_Trade

Most people think markets rise because of good news, technology, or simply because everyone is buying. That’s not true.
Every market — stocks, crypto, oil — is driven by only one thing: liquidity, meaning the amount of free money in the system. Everything else is secondary.
More money in the system → capital flows into stocks, crypto, real estate, risk assets 💰
Less money → capital flows into the dollar, bonds, cash 💸
Everything else is just noise.
💰 Why crypto depends on this more than anything else
The crypto market is the riskiest market in the world $BTC $ETH $BNB
When there’s plenty of cheap money in the system → people are willing to take risks, buy altcoins, meme coins, use leverage. That’s what we call a bull market.
As soon as liquidity starts leaving the system → crypto assets are always the first to collapse. Without exceptions 📉
That’s why the 2022–2025 rate hike cycle became one of the most painful periods for crypto in recent years.
📊 How to track this in practice
1️⃣ Fed actions and interest rates — the most important factor of all. Rate cuts → liquidity increases → markets move higher. Rate hikes → money becomes expensive → capital leaves risk assets. This is not theory — it’s mechanics.
Right now the market is pricing in a 54% probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026.
2️⃣ Fed balance sheet — are they printing money(QE) or removing liquidity from the system(QT)? After the COVID QE cycle, Bitcoin moved from $4,000 to $69,000. Coincidence? No. Liquidity.
Right now, after the QT cycle(liquidity withdrawal), we are seeing a small liquidity injection again. But the pace of new liquidity growth remains very low.
3️⃣ US bond yields — when 10Y and 30Y Treasuries offer high yields, large capital simply has no reason to enter crypto.
Why take risks if you can earn 5%+ virtually risk-free?
This is currently one of the biggest anchors holding markets back. I explained this in the previous post
4️⃣ Dollar Index(DXY) — a strong dollar pressures all risk assets. A weak dollar supports them.
Because global liquidity is denominated in dollars.
Right now the dollar is weak, but further weakening would require breaking the long-term uptrend that started in 2008.
Since then, the dollar has mostly strengthened, which is why betting on a full trend reversal remains unlikely for now(see chart 3).
🗞 Why news means almost nothing
Markets can rise on bad news and fall on good news. That’s not magic — it’s liquidity.
In a bull market with cheap money, literally everything pumps.
In a bear market, even positive news doesn’t help because there is simply no liquidity in the system.
Without understanding liquidity, trading crypto is just guessing where the chart will go 🎲
That’s why, until we see proper conditions with real liquidity returning to the system, allocating most of your capital toward bullish bets remains very dangerous ⚠️
❗️That’s exactly why during most of 2026 I’ve been actively advocating staying in cash rather than trading.
Because personally, I don’t understand what will happen to markets in the short term.
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀
#bitcoin #Ethereum #crypto #Fed #DXY

Today we’ll look at three coins that generated the highest trading volume this week:
1️⃣ $NEAR
NEAR currently looks like one of the strongest altcoins on the market:
breakout above long-term downtrend price consolidated above MA200D strong volume impulse RSI already in overbought territory
Structurally, the asset still looks strong and has potential for continuation.
However, price has already entered a major resistance zone around $2–3, where a large amount of sell-side liquidity sits.
Bullish structure remains intact for now, but after such an aggressive move the probability of a local pullback increases significantly.
Personally, I would not buy here. At minimum, I’d wait for a retest of the ascending trendline from above.
2️⃣ $ETH
Ethereum still looks extremely weak relative to the market:
full bearish triangle structure formed price failed again at key moving averages volume continues declining every bounce weaker than the previous one
ETH also failed to reclaim the $2500 zone and MA200D.
Right now the structure looks more like preparation for continuation down rather than accumulation before growth.
As long as ETH remains below the trendline, the global structure stays bearish. I already covered this asset in more detail in a previous post 👉 Read post
3️⃣ $HYPE
HYPE continues to surprise with strength:
powerful uptrend strong breakout above resistanceheavy demand and volumenew local highs
Right now HYPE looks like one of the market leaders and shows classic risk-on behavior.
Further upside remains possible since price is still far from the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Locally the asset looks overheated, so it’s better to wait for a pullback toward the key $47.59 level — or buy spot with readiness for a potential -20% drawdown.
📌 Conclusion
The market is extremely selective right now. Some assets are already breaking down and look ready for continuation lower. Others are only beginning to exit multi-month accumulation structures.
That’s why it’s especially important now to: • choose assets carefully • avoid trading everything blindly • focus on structure and liquidity
Because in market phases like this, the gap between strong and weak coins becomes massive 📊
👉 If you want to trade like a professional and not like a gambler — follow for real insights and strategies 🚀

Hello everyone! I might be back here to share some cool analytics again. But I'm not promising anything, so let's get going!
During the 2023–2025 cycle, Ethereum delivered one of the weakest performances among major assets
While the market was rallying, $ETH only managed to briefly touch its previous all-time high
For a top 2 asset by market cap — that’s extremely bad result. At this point, it’s fair to say: this patient is more dead than alive
Despite countless upgrades and “fixes”. Ethereum still lags behind newer, more efficient blockchains. Ethereum technology is outdated
ETH is likely to lose its leading position and gradually fade into the pool of average altcoins
Hard to accept? 🤔
Of course. People are emotionally attached and will keep justifying it
💡 But facts don’t care:
weak performancebroken relative strengthdeclining dominance
The price action over the past cycle is already confirming one thing Ethereum is in decline
📊 Technical analysis
1️⃣ First, let's look at the ETH price chart paired with $BTC
During the whole bull run 2023-2025, Ethereum kept losing value vs Bitcoin
The only notable bounce came in April 2025 — and even that was weak
Current stats:
Down -65% vs BTC from the 2022 peakAt the worst point → -79%
Even on the bounce, ETH failed to break its long-term downtrend
Instead → it got rejected and moved lower 📉
Structure:
Trading below long-term moving averagesClear bearish trend vs BTCNo signs of strength
What needs to happen for ETH to make new highs right now? 🤔
We simply don’t see that scenario
More likely after a short bounce → continuation lower
I think ETH will break its 2019 lows vs BTC
This isn’t just weakness. This is a long-term loss of dominance
2️⃣ Now let's move on to the classic ETH/USDT chart
I already explained why Ethereum looks structurally weak long-term.
Now the chart is starting to confirm it.
ETH has officially lost the rising support trendline that was holding the entire local bounce structure together. And this is very important.
Because until now, bulls could still argue: “it’s just consolidation before continuation higher.” But after the trendline breakdown, the structure changes completely.
📊 What we see now:
bearish triangle breakdownloss of local supportrejection below MA200Dlower highs continue formingRSI rolling over againvolume fading during recovery attempts
The entire move from April now increasingly looks like:
short squeezerelief rallydistribution before continuation lower
Not the beginning of a new bull cycle.
💡 The biggest problem for ETH right now
There is simply no aggressive buyer. Every rally gets sold almost immediately.
And notice how weak the bounce became near the $2400–2500 zone. That level acted as major resistance again.
Meanwhile:
BTC dominance remains highliquidity conditions worsenyields continue risingcapital rotates into stronger assets
This creates a very dangerous environment for weak altcoins.
📌 Technically, ETH now risks opening the path toward:
$1900 support zone firstthen potentially → $1500and under full panic conditions even lower liquidity zones become realistic
Especially if BTC loses strength too.
At this point, ETH no longer trades like a market leader. It trades like a weak high-beta asset inside a late-stage bear market rally.
📊 Conclusion:
It’s time for ETH to step aside. The market already has plenty of more interesting projects with:
near-zero feesfaster executionstronger ecosystems
Of course, many will laugh at this post. But the market always puts everything in its place
Don’t fall in love with toxic positions. Especially when we are already in a bear market
✔️ If you're tired of losing money to the market — follow. We fix that here
#ETH #ethereum #bearmarket #dominance #bitcoin

This year, the markets are behaving quite unpredictably, breaking all past correlations.
Let’s remember that we are currently in a cycle of declining key rates in developed countries. Historically, during such periods, markets fall rather than rise as they are doing now.
The logic is linear and clear:

The hype around artificial intelligence (AI) has long since died down.
If you remember, at the height of this trend, investors were buying up any assets that were at least remotely related to the topic.
Over time, the market has changed, and now investors expect real implementation of the loud promises from projects 🖥.

After the arrest of Pavel Durov in France in August of this year, the coin
went sideways.
Many probably have serious doubts about the coin's near future. Especially considering that against the backdrop of general market growth, the TON coin continues to remain within a sideways range.
Nevertheless, since August 24 (the day of Durov's arrest), the number of wallets with a balance of over $100,000 has increased by +30%.

The Alt season is in full swing!
Just a month ago, no one believed in this, but now it has all become reality.
In the previous post Has the Alt Season Started Yet? (see related idea) we already found out that everything is ready for the start of the Alt Season.
Since then, even heavyweights like
They shoot at +100% per day!
But as they say, good times are needed to prepare for the worst.

There is a trading saying: "Once per cycle, even ripple shoots."
shot up by +480% in just 1 month!
This event only happens once every 4 years in this coin, so the next time such a pump will happen will not be soon.
🤫 XRP coin has a brother
, which are completely correlated with each other.
Moreover, this coin always falls strongly and quickly after a strong and rapid growth.

In November $BTC surprised many, closing the month with an impressive result of +37.29%. This growth became the best monthly figure in the last year and a half and confirmed our expectations for the beginning of a new upward trend.
Historically, in December, the price of Bitcoin closed the month in the green zone half of the time.

We have already seen the phenomenal growth of $BTC BTC and alts from the TOP-10 (except $ETH ). It is time for these assets to consolidate to accumulate strength. After all, any asset needs a break to continue the rally. And a sideways correction on such trends is a normal phenomenon.
When large assets by capitalization are resting, smaller ones start to grow. It's all trivially simple, in large assets there is a profit fixation and all this liquidity starts to flow into other coins.

First on the market is always BTC - it is the flagship of the market that sets the trend and all other coins follow.
Imagine that the crypto market is an hourglass⏳
If the hourglass is turned over, then the sand (money) will flow into other altcoins.
❗️This process is not quick and takes months (not just a few minutes as many think).

In the crypto market, there is a DEX exchange that holds a leading position in turnover and trading volume among all other decentralized exchanges.
This exchange has its own token, $DYDX , which, despite its leading position in the market, has been falling without retracements since its listing.

Another week ends with the crypto market in the green zone. By the end of the week, the price $BTC BTC closed below the psychological level of $90,000.
The price only needs to rise by +10% to reach the mark of $100,000!
According to all technical metrics, it's about time to go for a correction in Bitcoin.
But we do not exclude the fact that the correction may take the form of a slowly ascending sideways market.

Since January 1, 2023, the crypto market has entered a bull market that continues to this day. Many are still in denial about it, as the recent debilitating downward sideways movement has exhausted most of the market.
For these 2 years we have been constantly writing to you that the long-term trend for the coming years is strictly upward and there is still a lot of time until the end of the bull market.

Before the current growth began, we wrote many times that#BTCgrowth would begin after the breakout of short liquidity zones.
As a result, to this day the main driver for growth is the liquidation of short sellers!
In just 1 week of growth, a total of $1.8 billion in short positions have already been liquidated🔪🐻
The short liquidation feast on the crypto market continues.

$BTC every day it updates the highs and the trend has just begun. Following Bitcoin, the entire market has already started to catch up and we are only at the start of the rally.
In the current reality, drawdowns can be quite deep, but all of them will be instantly bought out. The purpose of drawdowns is to collect leverage.
Therefore, it is now important to work exclusively in long without trying to prove to the market that it is wrong.

The crypto market loves to surprise.
After a long marinade, the market decided to make a gift and, contrary to everyone’s expectations, launched the alt-season.
Some coins $BTC $ALPACA $DODO have already shot up by +100%, but there are only a few of such coins so far.
Look at picture 1, which shows the dynamics of alts for this week.

To continually grow your portfolio, you need to keep at least 80% in strong, perpetual growth assets.
And only with the remaining funds, collect various alts that can really give you good earnings. The price for this is high risks and large drawdowns.
Fortunately, we are still far from the end of the bullish cycle. This means that most of your and our drawdowns in alts are temporary.

Now all attention should be concentrated only on strong assets BTC $ETH $TRX TON BNB and only after their growth can we consider alts.
💰 BTC has been marinating within a wide downward sideways trend for 175 days now. Moreover, in the last 2 weeks the price has been trading along the lower border of the global ascending channel.