BitHappy

Wallet homepage, Binance's SpaceX IPO is live now!

The allocation still follows the Alpha distribution. If you have the An Xiaojiang badge, you can snag an extra 50K allocation.

Points distribution rules:

1/ Alpha > 0, you get 20K allocation;

2/ Alpha > 40, you get 100K allocation;

3/ Alpha > 100, you get 200K allocation;

4/ Alpha > 200, you get 500K allocation.

Underwriting fee is 5%, and the premium cap is 30%, meaning if the IPO price jumps to 30%, it will trigger a refund.

True crypto new listing big rig. So the question is, are we swapping positions or adding to our bags?

This is just information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.

Continuously evolving BitHappy

About SpaceX's IPO:

I was initially planning to keep watching, but after Bybit shut down, the futures prices started climbing again.

Putting aside the FOMO feelings, let's break it down logically: the rise in futures prices means that as long as you hedge, you can make a profit. I’m guessing that after Kraken closes, the futures prices will keep going up.

Right now, the biggest question is how to allocate the new issuance quota.

It's already known that the 1:1 channels for funds over 1M have closed, and there are rumors that Bybit is also doing 1:1 allocation.

According to calculations from group members, the cost price is $141.75, and a 20% increase puts it at $168.75. So, if the futures price exceeds $168.75, it’s a guaranteed win.

There are two hedging strategies: one is exchange futures, and the other is the prediction market.

Most of my pals can only manage vague hedges, but this time, there’s not much to worry about regarding price manipulation, considering it’s such a well-known project. Still, be careful when choosing a hedging platform, like Binance!

Also, even if the pre-purchase on Kraken is successful, it can still be canceled.

Are you guys going to hedge? Or will you suffocate for your dreams?

This is just an information share, and it doesn't constitute any investment advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

Various news speculations suggest Mythos is dropping tomorrow!

For security reasons, everything that can be withdrawn on-chain has been pulled, and all authorizations have been revoked.

Since this afternoon, the de-pegging alerts have been non-stop, likely because many traders are taking a loss and bailing.

I recommend everyone at least revoke their authorizations!

Talking about stocks, my buddy says:

1/ The A-shares are like memes, just looking for bagholders;

2/ Hong Kong stocks are like knockoffs, they occasionally pump the price;

3/ US stocks are like a big pie, they keep mooning and have a cyclical nature.

Is this a solid summary?

I just finished reading Lei Jun's "Thoughts on Xiaomi's Entrepreneurship" in three days, and I'm thinking about picking up some Xiaomi stocks!\n\nIs that a solid move?\n\nI haven't been a fan in a while, but the only growth points I can think of are:\n\n1/ Expanding the auto business overseas;\n\n2/ Upgrading Xiao Ai's AI capabilities.\n\nAlso, I haven't really traded stocks before. Do I really need to pay 20% capital gains tax and 20% on dividends for profits in the Hong Kong market?\n\nIs there a way to legally minimize taxes?

In 2020, Bull thanked Xiaomi for putting the power strip industry on the fast track to upgrades.

In 2026, Bull sued Xiaomi for patent infringement.

What a ride,🤣

Arbitrage: Small profits on low volumes can lead to big gains, while large volumes with small profits don't yield much.

For the homies stuck in apxUSD ~

If you haven't bailed yet, you're probably hoping for a rebound or just choosing to HODL.

But besides waiting for the official pump, there are a few ways to 'self-rescue':

1/ Swap to apyUSD and wait for the rebound: You'll snag an extra 8% profit compared to just waiting for apxUSD to bounce back; downside is that apyUSD might keep tanking.

2/ Convert to apyUSD for the official redemption: You'll get more apxUSD, like losing 3.5% in three days, which is about 4% more apxUSD than just holding; downside is if it rebounds within those three days, you're stuck.

3/ Switch to pt-apyUSD and wait 12 days for your apxUSD back, which would yield 8% more apxUSD than holding; downside is pt price can be volatile, but usually not by much.

All these strategies are essentially about trying to increase your coin count in a tight spot, which is a way to mitigate losses.

However, you still need to consider the exit strategy for apxUSD, with two main options:

1/ Market sell: Depends on market price;

2/ Collateralize and borrow USDC: Depends on pool availability.

From my understanding, just HODLing apxUSD isn't the best move.

Maybe there are better strategies out there, feel free to discuss.

This is just information sharing, not financial advice!

Continuously evolving BitHappy

$BTC dropped to $60,000!

This time I played it smart and set a buy limit at $60,001, and it finally filled.

On OKX's dual currency platform, I also have buy orders at $58,000 and $56,000.

On Bybit's options, I've got sell Puts at $58,000 and $56,000.

Planning to scoop up some more with every $2,000 dip!

The above is just for information sharing and personal trading records, and does not constitute any investment advice.

Faithful BitHappy

As the post mentions, Apyx is publicly tweeting:

The goal is to scoop up blood-soaked chips, giving a fancy excuse of 'boosting the collateral ratio through profitable low-price buybacks'.

Last night, they executed buybacks and burned 8.25M apxUSD, while also casually liquidating the collateral loans in Morpho.

I didn’t tally up the buyback amounts.

Currently, the two related addresses still hold 5.75M USDC:

1/ Buyback address: 0xb98cd8c868cf00cea934977dbe4ac090e808fb87

2/ Interaction address: 0xf9862efc1704ac05e687f66e5cd8c130e5663ce2

From the current situation, they have the capacity to re-peg $apxUSD and $apyUSD, likely achieving their long-term goals through this harvesting strategy.

Congrats to them for winning, but in this orchestrated harvesting victory, all I feel is malice!

Saylor sold 100 bucks of $STRC last month, and this month he scooped up STRC at 90 bucks, that's just epic!

Our buddy in the group joked about it, crying emojis included. 😭

This arbitrage path was something Apyx could've totally played: buy back $apxUSD at 0.9 and redeem STRC, then flip it at 94.

But instead, they let apxUSD keep decoupling, which I just can't wrap my head around.

Maybe they think that 4% price difference isn’t enough? Wanting holders to keep dumping at a discount, so they can scoop up bigger profits with blood-soaked tokens?

At this point, all I can say is:

Thank goodness when I was doing "position management," I classified $STRC-related assets as high-risk positions.

Now, this drop is basically within the expected range, but it feels like I bought the dip too soon.

Although I never really considered $apxUSD as a stablecoin from the get-go, nor did I allocate to it, I still underestimated its leverage effect on $apyUSD, which amplified the risk further.

Even so, this drop is clearly overdone.

During the massive sell-off, the Apyx team didn't maintain the asset peg proportionately, probably due to high on-chain liquidity and insufficient funds.

In contrast, the situation with Saturn in the same lane is much more stable.

$USDat is a stablecoin, no need to elaborate.

$sUSDat quickly bounced back within minutes during the two significant drops the other day.

Whether it’s the retail traders’ reactions or the official handling, they both instilled confidence in the market.

Of course, this is also closely related to the state of on-chain liquidity.

————————————

I went to bed early yesterday, and this morning I woke up to see my group mates talking about making a few thousand U in swings overnight.

It's really gone from wealth management to trading coins, from arbitrage to getting stuck, 🙃

However, based on the current comparison of the drops between apyUSD and apxUSD, if apyUSD goes for redemption, there should still be profit or at least a way to minimize losses?

Opportunities/Gambles related to $STRC:

1/ $sUSDat: Last night, there were really only two significant decouplings, both of which had over 4% potential. Buying in just a few minutes later, it was basically free money.

2/ $apxUSD: Since the underlying assets also include STRC, it decoupled by a little over 1%. It hasn't fully re-pegged yet, but I didn't get in on this one.

3/ $apyUSD: This one is continuously decoupling, currently around 4%. I'm still trying to catch the bottom, but the overall experience has been very poor, feeling more like gambling rather than engaging in decoupling arbitrage.

Last night, my phone alarm went off 15 times, and the TG notifications were in the dozens.

The above is just information sharing and personal trading records, not investment advice!

Not well-rested, BitHappy.

Ready to HODL the dip $BTC , and short those put options!

Last time $BTC dropped to $60K, $STRC hit a low of $93!

This time it's still at $68K, but has already dipped to $96!

Can the STRC strategies hold up this time without crashing?

Can Apyx and Saturn withstand the pressure? Will they successfully pull off their TGE? 🤔

Although logically, micro-strategies can definitely hold up to $30K, emotions always lead before logic!

The silver lining is that the arbitrage army is still holding strong～

After disappearing for half a year, my DeFi buddy suddenly made a comeback today～

Right off the bat, he started throwing down some hot takes, saying that anyone still in the crypto scene is a total noob, and miners are just a dime a dozen, straight-up suggesting we should be trading US stocks instead.

His logic and strategy are:

Photon, granules, storage, CPU, architecture, GPU, server racks, energy—these sectors keep rotating.

Whenever one dips, he buys in there, rotating his buys, and after he’s done, he usually sees a nice 20-30% pump.

After each take-profit, he throws in a bit of VIX 3x volatility index to hedge against sudden market crashes.

With this strategy, he went in heavy for a month and has already racked up 30% profit.

After his output, he got everyone all hyped up!

Then I jumped in with a 10x Intel long, and in just 10 minutes, I made 5%.

Is everyone really just scooping up money in US stocks like this? Isn't trading US stocks just gambling? 😭

Even though I’m arbitraging daily in TradFi, I haven’t really been keeping an eye on the prices. Am I missing out big time?

The day before yesterday in 'Binance Life', CZ didn't go all in:

Instead, he treated his skills as his ultimate capital.

Today in 'This World is Both Cruel and Gentle', Sun Ge straight up said:

No matter how promising an investment seems, don't use high leverage.

This is completely different from everyone's impression of the 'ALL IN comeback' strategy, right?

Finally got the lowdown on the two major partners behind Binance's US stock trading!

With Binance rolling out spot trading for US stocks, they’re not holding the stocks directly but are working through two pro brokers.

Let’s break it down:

Who exactly are Nest Trading and Alpaca? What’s their relationship with Binance?

Nest Trading Limited (broker introduction):

1/ Originally named BCI Limited

2/ Approved by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) FSRA in December 2025

3/ Officially rebranded and started operations on January 5, 2026

4/ It's one of the three regulated entities Binance set up in ADGM, the other two being Nest Exchange and Nest Clearing.

Relationship with Binance: 100% owned by Binance’s subsidiary, officially referred to as Binance Broker Dealer in the Terms of Use.

Their role: Handling orders from users on the Binance app and routing them to the next execution.

Alpaca (Alpaca Securities LLC / Alpaca Clearing):

1/ Founded in 2013, headquartered in San Mateo, California (with an office in New York)

2/ Self-clearing broker (a member of FINRA + SIPC)

3/ Focuses on Brokerage-as-a-Service (BaaS), servicing over 9 million accounts and 300+ platforms (including Kraken)

4/ Completed a $150 million Series D round in January 2026, valued at $1.15 billion

5/ A global leader in the tokenized stocks space (holding approximately 94% market share)

Relationship with Binance: Purely a third-party partner with no equity ties.

Their role: Actual order execution, clearing and settlement, stock custody, dividend payments, and corporate actions.

Collaboration model: Binance + Nest Trading (Binance's own broker) + Alpaca (independent professional clearing and custody).

Enabling zero-commission US stock trading for non-US users, while transferring all real stock assets and regulatory responsibilities to licensed institutions—compliant and efficient!

In a few weeks, bStocks will go live on-chain, with the underlying real stocks still managed by Alpaca, and the on-chain part operating on the BNB Chain.

Are you all set to dive into US stocks? 👀

Finally, the official announcement from Binance for US stocks is here～

Maybe this is another historic moment for Binance after 9.4.

Currently, you need to set the App language to 'non-simplified Chinese' to see it in the trading interface, like Traditional Chinese!

CEX spot trading is now live:

1/ Trading pairs: 7000+ US stocks & ETFs;

2/ Fees: A platform fee of $0.35 for orders up to $350; for orders over $350, it's 0.1%;

3/ Trade amount: Buy fractional shares starting at $5;

4/ Supported currencies: USDC, USDT, USD1, U, and BNB (for non-US users);

5/ Trading hours: 5 * 24 trading

But right now, it’s still not related to blockchain.

In a few weeks, stocks on-chain, called bStocks, will arrive!

Then you can convert stocks into tokens on the BNB Chain for instant settlement + DeFi lending and liquidity mining (the world I imagine).

That will be true blockchain-inclusive finance!

In the meantime, let’s hit spot trading on US stocks for some arbitrage, should be a good time?

Who's already jumped in?

And the biggest question is whether we’ll get hit by CRS?

This is probably what everyone is most worried about!

Recently, River has been rising too aggressively; it's impossible not to pay attention～

Since I didn't participate earlier, I've been looking for any opportunities to get involved these past few days.

I actually found a few, as follows:

1/ Buy River Pts and convert them into locked River through the Conversion 2.0 airdrop system. Based on the current River price, the potential return could be about 15 times;

2/ Directly buy Pendle YT, wait for points to accumulate, and receive an airdrop at the end of the season, which could yield several times returns;

3/ Go to Pancake and form an LP with SatUSD/USDT, which has a 25X points bonus, with the official annualized estimate being 140+%;

After weighing various factors, I still believe the first option has the best risk-reward ratio.

On one hand, the annualized return after locking is incredibly high; on the other hand, the cost and structure of acquiring Pts are relatively simple.

For example, with a current investment of $100, you can obtain about 9,447 Pts, which can be exchanged for River at the real-time exchange rate after locking. According to official data, the same 9,447 Pts, if chosen for a 3-month lock-up period, could be exchanged for about 12.07 River;

At the current price, this part of the value is already close to a thousand U, equivalent to getting nearly 10 times returns in three months with $100. Additionally, if you are willing to wait longer, choosing a 12-month lock period could yield about 15 times potential returns～

However, it should be noted: the returns from this strategy will still be affected by price fluctuations, and with the funding rates remaining high, the method of hedging to lock in profits may not be suitable in the current environment.

But personally, I believe finding an opportunity to hedge some returns is still feasible.

The recent hype around River is clearly closely related to the $8 million strategic investment from Sun, which I believe most people are already aware of, right?

Thus, River's total strategic financing has now reached $12 million.

Additionally, while researching their rules and looking for opportunities, I found that their tokenomics has been continuously adjusted.

Wow, it’s intense; it’s that time again to see everyone getting hundreds of times returns.

Note: The above is for informational sharing only and is not investment advice; please make sure to do your own research!

DeFi Enthusiast: BitHappy