BitHappy

The performance of this on-chain liquidation is better than that of exchanges, especially in the lending aspect.

This is mainly due to the design of protocols like Ethena and AAVE, which, in order to increase TVL, encourage circular lending and fix the value of lending assets to collateral assets at a ratio of 1:1.

For instance, the circular lending of USDT and USDe on Aave previously had no liquidation risk due to the use of a fixed oracle, coupled with subsidy activities at that time, which raised the TVL by billions in just a few days.

This mechanism has also driven almost all stablecoins to be fixed at a ratio of 1:1 in the oracles of lending protocols.

Therefore, most users involved in this on-chain stablecoin circular lending have come through largely unscathed.

However, the most severe liquidation losses for USDe occurred on Binance.

On one hand, Binance launched a promotion offering 12% interest on USDe, attracting a large number of whales to participate in circular lending (resulting in almost total losses). On the other hand, USDe can also be used as contract margin.

I just saw a big shot analyze that this waterfall event was triggered by the chain reaction of USDe liquidations, but the post has already been deleted.

Latest news: Binance will compensate users affected by USDe, BNSOL, and WBETH.

StandX has launched new rules for hanging order points～

In summary: the larger the hanging order amount, the longer the time, and the closer to the market price, the more points you will earn.

Here, I’d like to mention that the community technical team’s hanging order robot is now online and operational!

➤ Specific rules for hanging order points:

1/ Order value: the larger the order, the more points;

2/ Hanging order duration: the longer the hanging order time, the more points, must be greater than 3 seconds;

3/ Hanging order price: the closer it is to the market price, the higher the weight, the ranges are as follows:

- 0–10 bps = 100%

- 10–30 bps = 50%

- 30–100 bps = 10%

Points increase according to conditions, but risks still exist.

The greatest uncertainty lies in the difficulty of predicting market conditions; if the direction is wrong, the order will be executed for real!

Fortunately, the API point acquisition efficiency of StandX is consistent with manual operation.

So, everyone, let AI improve strategies and implement automation with code directly!

Note: The above is just information sharing and not investment advice, please make sure to do your own research!

Happy Planet Community & BitHappy

Bluefin and Ant Group's TopNod jointly launched a 14% APY that is no longer appealing～

This mine has been open for just a week, with a total quota of 7M, and it is still not fully deposited.

➤ Estimated reasons:

1/ TopNod's Ant background has not been officially announced;

2/ TopNod cannot use hardware wallets, and people are naturally distrustful of new wallets;

3/ Binance's USD1 20% and Huobi U 20% have taken away the majority of deposits;

4/ Sui had frequent incidents in the second half of 2025;

5/ The DeFi crisis has not yet been overcome by everyone.

To be honest, if this were last year, it would have been full by now, but the above Buffs do indeed add up.

Note: The above is for information sharing only and is not investment advice. Please make sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiasts: BitHappy

The underlying logic of dual currency winning～

Recently, I've often seen everyone complaining about dual currency winning, but in fact, the essence of dual currency winning is not about storing coins, but rather packaging a segment of options structure into a simple button.

The core difference is the Knock-Out mechanism.

1/ What exactly is the Knock-Out mechanism:

Ordinary options look at the result at expiration, while the Knock-Out mechanism looks at the path along the way. Once the Barrier Level is triggered, the product is directly knocked out and ends, no longer exposed to future market conditions.

So the Knock-Out mechanism is more like exchanging "potentially earning more" for the right to "wrap up earlier," earning the interval premium rather than trend profit.

2/ Misunderstandings and drawbacks of the Knock-Out mechanism:

The Knock-Out mechanism eliminates the tail risk that issuers fear the most, so the premium is usually cheaper, and the annualized rate looks more appealing.

But the cost is also very straightforward: once triggered, it ends, and even if the market continues to rise or fall afterward, it has nothing to do with you, which is the source of the commonly said "fear of missing out" and "feeling trapped."

3/ The scarcity of the Knock-Out mechanism:

Many friends will ask if they can replicate it using spot + perpetual + options, and the answer is that it's possible to do something similar, but it's hard to achieve equivalence.

The Knock-Out mechanism usually requires OTC counterparties, terms, and clearing systems to function normally. Coupled with slippage, transaction fees, and margin consumption in multi-leg trades, the premiums in practice can be significantly eroded by friction costs. Exchanges provide low-fee pathways for everyone, earning commissions to achieve a win-win situation.

4/ Personal understanding of dual currency winning:

Dual currency winning is indeed not suitable for one-sided markets because it is a structure for collecting premiums. The goal is to earn money in intervals, making it more suitable for volatile markets, and requires users to have their own judgment about the market.

In addition, it is also suitable for bottom-fishing enthusiasts, as buying spot at a price they can accept yields slightly more income than purely placing limit orders.

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice, and please make sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiasts: BitHappy

Hey, the narrow range of gold LP has already gone out of the range.

Originally thought it could be comfortable for another weekend, but unexpectedly the US suddenly launched airstrikes on Venezuela.

Speculation: Market risk aversion is heating up, everyone wants to buy gold, but the market is closed over the weekend, traditional channels cannot operate, so they can only turn to on-chain gold?

So, since it has risen in advance, is there any arbitrage space?🤔

From the community: cbETH/ETH low volatility pool, currently tested at about 20% APR～

The mining pool is located in Aerodrome. Although the interface shows an APR exceeding 56%, the actual test results from community partners are around 20%.

cbETH is a liquid staking token issued by Coinbase, where 1 cbETH corresponds to 1 staked ETH and continuously accumulated staking rewards, with an annualized rate of about 2.77% - 2.78%.

Therefore, the price of cbETH does not completely correspond to ETH at a 1:1 ratio.

A more hassle-free way to participate: first, estimate the increase of cbETH before forming an LP; second, set a minimum range and make automatic or manual adjustments by monitoring whether the range is breached.

Whether it's the protocol itself or the tokens involved in the pool, they can basically be regarded as core assets of Coinbase, with overall risk relatively low.

In addition, since the community launched a mechanism that rewards $100 for providing valid information, the atmosphere has noticeably improved, and everyone is welcome to join.

Everyone's sharing will be recorded in the community channel and on Twitter, with community members voting at the end of each month to decide which information receives rewards, distributed on the 1st of the following month.

In other words, the value of information is collectively assessed by the community, while I am only responsible for distributing funds～

Note: The above is for information sharing only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research!

DeFi enthusiasts: BitHappy

The Bot's Pitfall Record in the Prediction Market～

A few days ago, I saw brother 0xKaKa03's post about protecting rights on Polymarket's Orderbook, which reminded many fellow Bot runners.

Combining some recent personal practical experiences, I will add a few pitfalls and experiences for everyone's reference.

➤ For example:

1/ Unstable WS connection:

Previously, when collecting historical data and real-time order books, I frequently encountered WS disconnection issues, leading to data gaps. The specific situation on my end is that the official WS sometimes suddenly drops or pushes incomplete data, causing the Bot to place orders based on a fragmented Orderbook, which is very risky. It can be combined with REST API polling as a backup.

However, this issue may also be related to server and program design, as I was using a server located in Tokyo on AWS for collection.

2/ State machine + multi-source verification + warning mechanism:

When running strategies, encountering API issues can easily lead to failures. It is recommended to use a state machine to monitor the entire order process (placing order → confirmation → matching → on-chain settlement), setting multiple warning thresholds, such as state transition failures (e.g., orders pending for a long time), sudden changes in the order book, and price slippage exceeding expectations.

Once triggered, immediately pause opening new orders and liquidate risk positions.

Additionally, multi-source verification can be implemented by using both WS and API, and also combining on-chain events, and cross-validating with The Graph subgraph queries.

3/ Server latency:

In high-frequency Bots, the delay in program logic (the measured difference is only microseconds to milliseconds) is not actually the bottleneck; the real issue is network and server latency.

From personal tests, even when selecting Japanese nodes, there is a difference of over 200ms between ByVirt and AWS JP, which is deadly in a competitive market.

Overall, there are many opportunities in the prediction market, but the infrastructure is still being improved, and defensive design is more important than offensive logic when running Bots.

Prioritize capital preservation before seeking profit, especially with airdrop expectations.

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice, please be sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiast: BitHappy

Thank you, Shrimp, for providing the information in advance!

At 10:11 on 12.24, Shrimp said in the community: Can Binance USD1 annual interest of 20% be done?

After seeing the message, I immediately went to search for the announcement but couldn't find it, so I opened the Binance App to confirm whether the event page had been updated.

After confirming the page was updated, I still hesitated to buy USD1 directly, worried that this was a floating interest rate and not a fixed rate, so I didn't act immediately.

Then I observed the price of USD1, which remained quite stable.

Until 10:28, the community test version pushed the USD1 earning activity, which prompted me to buy a few USD1 needed for Binance accounts.

At the same time, I kept an eye on Binance announcements, ready to leverage buy in at any time.

Sure enough, at 11 o'clock, Binance officially announced, and USD1 immediately experienced a surge.

Therefore, the information provided by Shrimp in advance not only allowed the community members to buy cheap USD1 but also enabled the keen members to earn more through leverage.

From a profit perspective, giving Shrimp a $100 red envelope is definitely not too much, as everyone's profits far exceed this amount.

From a community perspective, Brother Yang mentioned before that he hopes everyone is willing to share information. To this end, the community has specifically set up an Alpha small group, allowing only those who are willing to share information to join.

However, this would decrease the value of information in the larger group, which is not conducive to the overall development of the community.

So, after discussing with a few core members, we decided:

To ensure the value and depth of the community, every member who provides effective information can receive a $100 red envelope!

Of course, many profit-making information has limited funding capacity, so the members sharing information can first enjoy the benefits themselves before sharing it.

For example, this time with USD1, you buy it first, then the community follows, allowing you to get the red envelope while letting everyone help you pump the price, achieving two goals at once.

Additionally, if you are not sure whether the information has value, don't worry. As long as it is shared and everyone analyzes it as an opportunity and makes money, I will also issue a $100 red envelope.

Finally, welcome everyone to join the "Happy Planet" community!

Experience in Building Prediction Market Bots～

Several articles have been published about prediction markets, and combining my experiences during this period, I would like to briefly discuss the architecture design, hoping to help those who want to take action themselves.

➤ Architecture Design:

1/ Layered:

The entire architecture can be divided into three layers: the abstraction layer, the adaptation layer, and the strategy layer. The strategy layer only calls the interfaces of the abstraction layer, indirectly invoking the adapter, decoupling the code and ensuring extensibility.

2/ Separation of Data Collection and Execution:

Design an independent process to continuously pull market data and write it into local cache, where the strategy layer will read data from the local cache. During the startup of the entire program, there will be at least two processes, each performing its functions without blocking each other.

3/ Lifecycle Management of Positions:

Utilize a state machine to manage positions, with a general structure of:

OPEN → REDEEMABLE → REDEEMED, where OPEN roughly corresponds to 1-3 in the previous article, REDEEMABLE corresponds to 4-7, and REDEEMED corresponds to 8.

During the program execution, if it cannot correctly switch to the next state, it will switch to the LOST state, and based on the alert level, decide whether to ignore it or trigger an emergency mechanism.

4/ Dry Run Mode

Attach a dry_run parameter to the order function. When dry_run = True, the complete logic is followed, but it only outputs the log "About to place an order: Purchase XX shares @ 0.XX", without actually executing the trade. Before going live in the production environment, test the dry run mode to validate the logic, and switch to real trading only after ensuring there are no issues.

Note: The above is only for information sharing and not investment advice; please make sure to conduct your own research!

DeFi Enthusiast: BitHappy

The core of the simple arbitrage Bot for prediction markets～

An analysis of the arbitrage logic for prediction markets has been conducted using referenced tweets, and manual arbitrage is generally not a problem.

However, how to scale it up? Let's break down the logic of automation implementation.

➤ The core logic of the Bot:

1/ Find the same underlying asset across multiple platforms;

2/ Ensure that the sum of the "yes/no" for the underlying asset is less than 100 cents;

3/ Confirm the liquidity of the order books for the underlying asset on multiple platforms, with the condition being: whether the arbitrage space can cover the fees caused by insufficient liquidity, or whether the fee erosion corresponding to the points ratio is acceptable;

4/ Continuously monitor whether the floating profit of the positions reaches an acceptable level, and if so, take profits in advance rather than completely relying on settlement at expiration;

5/ Confirm the liquidity situation;

6/ If liquidity is insufficient, automatic position splitting is required (focusing on the end with less order book liquidity), gradually exiting;

7/ Repeat the process of splitting and closing positions until all positions are closed;

8/ If liquidity is sufficient, close all positions at once.

The above logic essentially serves as the Vibe Coding prompt for implementing a simple version of an automated arbitrage Bot.

If everyone is interested in the Bot, you can now hand over these two tweets to AI to generate the requirement document for coding～

Note: This is just a simple version, and there are definitely more refined solutions!

Now you perhaps really don't have to worry about USD1 being at a premium anymore～

Yesterday, USD1 dropped slightly again, although the decline wasn't significant, and I estimate not many people are paying attention, after all, the premium isn't high, and most who wanted to take advantage of Binance's 20% interest have probably already deposited their funds.

But I still took a look, and the possible reason I found is that there is a large amount of USD1 available to borrow from Lista, probably around 60M.

So, if there are still those who haven't caught this wave of free money benefits, just go borrow it directly.

Then, the collateral PT-USDe has an APY of 4%, while borrowing USD1 has an APY of 3%, which means you can still earn a 1% reverse interest, which is quite good.

After going through this wave of favorable conditions for USD1, I found that trading stablecoins is indeed much more certain than other coins, and I will continue to participate in the future!

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice, please be sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiast: BitHappy

Is it hard to make money in the crypto world? Let's go take a look at the A-shares silver LOF arbitrage～

This opportunity was discovered and shared by a group friend early on, the core logic being that the recent on-site premium is significantly higher than the net value, creating short-term arbitrage space.

1/ Background:

The spot silver price in London has reached an all-time high, driving the rise of related domestic assets. 161226 is the only major LOF fund in China tracking silver futures, with the on-site price once significantly premium, peaking close to 68%.

2/ Arbitrage Method:

On T day, subscribe to 161226 shares through the broker's APP on-site subscription function (traded at net value), and sell on-site after the shares arrive on T+2 day. The profit mainly comes from the price difference between the on-site price and the net value, theoretical return = subscription amount × premium rate - handling fee.

Initially, with a limit of 500 yuan, at peak, a net profit of over 300 yuan could be achieved in one day.

3/ Arbitrage Logic:

LOF allows off-site subscription/redeeming at net value, while on-site trading is driven by sentiment. The surge in silver prices combined with limited investment channels leads to concentrated capital flowing into the market, pushing prices up and creating premium space, so one can acquire at a low price off-site and sell at a high price on-site.

To quote a group friend's original words: it’s just like minting a coin for 2U in the crypto world and then dumping it for 2.5U two days later.

4/ Current Situation:

From December 29, the subscription limit for Class A shares has been lowered to 100 yuan/day (previously 500 yuan), and multiple account operations may still allow for some profit.

Note: A sharp drop in on-site prices during T+2 could lead to reduced returns or even losses.

Reminder: The above is for information sharing only and is not investment advice; please make sure to do your own research!

With the help of group friends, DeFi enthusiasts: BitHappy

Some practical experiences regarding prediction market strategies～

Today I came across Wanwan's article "Polymarket 2025 Six Major Profit Models In-Depth Report", which provides a deep analysis of various strategies. Thank you for sharing!

➤ Some personal experiences:

1/ High probability bonds (around 99% "end-of-day financial management")

I tried small amounts a few times, and overall it resulted in negative returns. The main issue is that the actual occurrence probability of black swan events is often higher than the 0.1% given by the market. Once something goes wrong, the losses can be quite painful.

From practical experience, it's essential to thoroughly research the event rules before entering, ensuring that the result is almost impossible to reverse, such as when official data has been released or when voting has ended, among other hard conditions.

However, even so, the black swan risk still hangs overhead like the sword of Damocles, so putting large amounts of capital here as a "sure-win financial management" carries high risk.

2/ Providing liquidity (LP)

The rating in the table is quite high, and the professional team should be able to manage it relatively well, but for ordinary people, controlling inventory risk is too difficult. Being slightly behind on information can lead to being swept in a one-sided manner.

3/ Prediction markets are more like "black box futures"

They are somewhat similar to traditional contracts, requiring delivery by expiration, but many event outcomes are only revealed at the last moment, filled with uncertainty. Therefore, when selecting event targets, it is necessary to choose those with clear rules and transparent information, avoiding overly subjective and contentious targets.

Overall, current cross-platform arbitrage still seems to be a relatively reliable direction, especially when combined with Polymarket's zero-fee as one leg, the opportunities are somewhat more stable.

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice. Please be sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiasts researching prediction markets: BitHappy

Original text: https://x.com/linwanwan823/status/2004380260121694645

Everyone is cashing in on Twitter's 'Creator Income'!??

Sure enough, my arbitrage skills are still too inexperienced～

This year, there are particularly many posting and commenting bots on Twitter; I originally thought it was just simple talk.

I didn't expect that some people are specifically targeting 'Twitter's rules' to profit, and considering how generous Twitter has been with payouts this year, everything makes sense now.

It turns out that chatting can achieve a two-for-one benefit.

However, based on the description in the original text, the income from this farmer path is already not very high.

Two weeks, 72 dollars, which is about 504 bucks.

Binance USD1 20% annual profit strategy, continued～

A few hours ago, USD1 suddenly plunged, and the community began discussing, with speculation that it was because of "USD1 activity lifting the limit," but there was no announcement of such a lift.

Additionally, before the plunge, friends in the large holder group mentioned: "Last night USD1 did not drop; could it be because the banks were closed, preventing sales through Mint?"

From the subsequent situation, this speculation seems quite reasonable — bank holidays could indeed affect the Mint process.

However, I'm not skilled enough to go through the Mint process myself, nor can I verify it.

But after asking AI, I learned that USD1 can be minted/redeemed through BitGo, and AI also indicated that bank hours would affect Mint/Redeem, which aligns with the large holder group's statement.

👉 The conversation with AI is here (AI may not be correct): https://x. com/i/grok/share/a3vyZBNl9CbI7jm3osoMISwX3

➤ So, the best profit strategy this time is:

— Retail investors: Borrow/sell USD1 on Binance with leverage, and sell when there's a premium.

— Large holders/institutions: Redeem after buying low, or mint at a high price and sell to the market.

From this perspective, the top players are still the large holders or institutions with Mint/Redeem rights, but we can also speculate on their operations to achieve decent profits through leverage.

Of course, buying low and just earning interest while lying flat is also good, after all, there is about 1.6% profit. USD1 is unlikely to detach from 1.6% in the next 30 days.

How to say, whether it can be practically operated is one thing, knowing it is another, useful knowledge +1.

Thanks to the group friends who started discussing the Mint process and leverage selling strategies shortly after the USD1 activity announcement, group friends 🐮🍺～

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice, please be sure to do your own research!

DeFi enthusiast: BitHappy

USD1 Market cap 24-hour growth 7.68%, but the price has only increased by 0.2%!

Why is that? Who is making money from this?

So, the top earning strategy for USD1 with a 20% annual return is!??

Recently conducting research and practical testing in the prediction market～

➤ Research results:

1/ End-of-day strategy: A small-scale test of the end-of-day strategy was conducted, and the results showed a negative EV (expected value), with an overall loss, not recommended as a primary direction.

2/ Short-term binary contracts: In-depth observation and data collection were also conducted for short-term binary contracts. No significant single-market arbitrage opportunities have been found so far. The market odds probabilities generally closely follow the fair probabilities derived from the Black-Scholes formula, with relatively efficient pricing and no arbitrage opportunities.

3/ Cross-market arbitrage: Currently, the only relatively stable opportunity lies in cross-market arbitrage. For example, buying Yes on one platform and buying No on another when the price difference is sufficient to cover transaction fees, which allows for locking in risk-free returns.

Polymarket can be prioritized as one leg, as its transaction fees are zero, significantly enhancing overall returns.

➤ Of course, the following key points must be noted:

1/ The percentage difference must be greater than the fees of the other platform;

2/ Prioritize events with shorter expiry times to improve capital turnover rate.

Note: The above is for information sharing only, not investment advice, please conduct your own research!

DeFi and prediction market enthusiasts: BitHappy