These 7 days have been too exciting. The contract number in cryptocurrency terms went from a floating profit of +7 million U, to a floating loss of -3 million U, and then back to break-even yesterday.
Always fully invested, always with tears of joy 🥹
Trading is like this, an extreme roller coaster. If either your mindset or position management is off balance, you won't be able to hold on any longer. You'll either be wiped out by a black swan event or crash out. What doesn't kill me only makes me stronger.
Why am I sharing this? Because recently too many people have had their mindset explode, wanting to withdraw from the market and give up. Seeing others profit from shorting only adds insult to injury. I understand that kind of despair, so I want to tell you:
You are not alone. Every night that feels unbearable, there are others going through the same agony. Stay calm, think coolly, and don't act impulsively. As long as you can do this, what you have lost will eventually come back.
Pickle Cat
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Bearish
Yes, I completely cleared my contract, and you guys found out 🤣
I mentioned during the live broadcast yesterday afternoon that I would be looking for a second bottom, and I drew the lines. After the broadcast, I directly cleared everything.
On 10/11, the black swan happened because I didn't achieve complete alignment between knowledge and action. I didn't fully exit, and I had a floating loss of -3 million u 🤡 After reviewing, I realized I must change this bad habit, So after the rebound to basically break even, I decisively cleared everything right after saying it during the live broadcast yesterday.
Now the second bottom is here.
- I still believe there will be a wave of bullish movement before Christmas (consistent with the top pinned long article opinion on X)
- But that wave feels more like the last chance to escape; after that, it will be a real bear market (2026, long article not yet written)
- I cleared everything yesterday; before Christmas, I plan to clear many spot positions as well.
Thank you, Jimmy. What doesn't kill me makes me stronger!
Oxjimmyyyyy_吉米桑
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After reading Ms. Cat's lengthy article, it's really possible to publish a book. Previously, there was Li Xiaolai's 'Self-Cultivation of Leeks', and next there will be CZ's 'Binance Life'. Will there soon be Ms. Cat's 'Survival Guide in the Cryptocurrency World';
With this, I would like to summarize some viewpoints to share with everyone:
The cryptocurrency world is not about who makes money faster, but about who can survive longer— the definition of winning has never been how much money you make, but whether you can keep that money years later.
'Consensus upgrade' is the real bull market; everything else is just a 'flash in the pan'— a bull market is not driven by K-lines but is supported by 'a group of people voting with their feet and changing the world through actions'. If the price rises but the behavior doesn't change, that's called 'zombie trading'.
The mindset of chasing quick money is the biggest obstacle to making big money— the quick money mentality not only empties your wallet but also corrupts your belief system.
Belief is not about 'never selling at any cost', but about 'the reason to endure cycles'— if you hold Bitcoin just because 'others say it will rise', you definitely won't hold on when it drops 50%. But if you believe it is 'the fourth covenant between God and humanity' (the author's divine metaphor), then a crash is just a chapter in the story.
Establish your 'behavioral anchor points'; otherwise, trading will lead to your demise— test yourself: how much would you panic sell when the price drops? How much would you be greedy when it rises? Will you engage in 'revenge trading' after a loss? Write down your answers in advance; otherwise, the market will write them for you— in the form of losing money.
If you finish reading this and think, 'It's too long; just tell me which coin to buy', then you are what the author calls a 'quick money mindset patient'. The real secret is always counterintuitive— slow down, dig deep, accumulate, and live long enough to see it all.
'In the cryptocurrency world, making money relies on luck, keeping money relies on understanding, and enduring cycles relies on faith— and your biggest opponent will always be that part of yourself that wants to get rich overnight.'
Your "get rich quick" mentality is the real culprit preventing you from making big money — By Pickle Cat
I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013. As a seasoned investor who has lived to 2026 and experienced over a decade of market cycles, I've seen countless ways this market can destroy and ruin people. I've discovered that over this long period, there seems to be an undeniable ironclad rule: That is, in this circle, the definition of "winning" is never how much money you make. Everyone who has been involved in this circle has made money at least once, no matter how novice they are or how small their initial capital is; they can become a "genius" for a short time. So what exactly is "winning"? It's making money and being able to keep that money even years later.
Check out how the top X product manager took down $KAITO with just one tweet
Original tweet meaning: "We found that some projects were using incentives to post on X, resulting in a flood of low-quality AI replies, a complete mess. So we just shut off their API access 😂
Oh, by the way, if you're one of those developers, no worries—reach out to me and I'll help you get onboard Threads or Bluesky (X's competitors). Good luck, and goodbye!"
If you're trading the $XMR contract, and still taking a short-term approach, we strongly suggest you truly understand what Monero is, its history, and its application scenarios. If you really want to invest, it might be more reliable to go for spot trading elsewhere. If you don't understand it, just stay away. If you don't even take the time to study it, and instead use the same logic (path dependence) you apply to trading other VC coins, you will surely lose everything.
Those who understand will understand. Those who don't understand and refuse to study will never understand. It's truly different.
Some macro hidden risks I'm closely watching for 2026:
- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle - Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year) - Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity - Ongoing geopolitical tensions - Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields - Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations
Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal. But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.
When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.
Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."
I don't fully agree with that view.
I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.
Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.
Simply put: If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.
That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.
I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.
Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.
I always said faith works, look at $BTC 95k $ETH 3300, didn't it come back? Why rush? The hardest part of trading is waiting ⌛️
"Why not trade small swings? Why not close early and re-enter? You could make money twice, right?"
Many people privately message me or ask during live streams similar questions.
So I'll just attach a screenshot of a message my friend sent me yesterday 😂
Dude, do you think making two profits is as easy as just saying so? Who knows what the market will do tomorrow? Who knows whether last week's 94k will inevitably drop back to 90k and then rebound to 94k this week? Do you have a time machine? Haha, I don't.
After reading this, you'll understand why it's best not to trade short-term when there's a trend—because you'll end up losing more: good entry points, mental energy (anxiety over when the next good buying opportunity will come), sleep (who can sleep well trading short-term constantly?), and mindset (you exited early, but then you see your friend who just opened a position and didn't touch it made money, and you feel even more anxious)
Pickle Cat
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Not enough liquidity, but my faith is strong 😤 $ETH