CoinGecko News. Wu Shuo learned that, according to Vaneck’s latest Bitcoin Chaincheck report, as of August 12, 8 of the 12 Bitcoin market capitulation signals it tracks are currently being triggered, and all 12 signals have entered the capitulation range at some point during the past three months. Vaneck believes that Bitcoin’s drawdown since the October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month, and the market may be approaching—or already in—a consolidation/accumulation phase. The potential turning point is roughly expected to fall between September and November. However, historical backtests show that after similar capitulation signals appear, Bitcoin does not show a clear pattern of above-benchmark excess returns over the next 3 to 6 months. Over a one-year horizon, performance is better than the benchmark, though the sample size is limited. In the past 30 days, the amount of BTC held for more than one year decreased by about 357,000 coins to 11.84 million coins, accounting for 59.1% of circulating supply. In the same period, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETP saw net inflows of approximately $663 million. Over 30 days, realized volatility has fallen to 27.2%.