Market expectations of a rate cut have waned, and a key analysis of Bitcoin's charts has been summarized.

📝 Fed Rate Cut Probability Status (CME FedWatch) ➡️ Markets are still pricing in a greater likelihood of a freeze

  • Probability of a 25bp cut in the base rate in January next year: 24.4%

  • Rate freeze probability: 75.6%

  • As of March, the probability of a cumulative 25bp cut is 40.4%.

  • Chance of freezing until March: 52%

  • Accumulated probability of a 50bp cut: 7.6%

➡️ In the short term, the scenario of maintaining the current level is more favorable than a reduction, but the possibility of a reduction is gradually reflected as we move into March.

📉 The next variable the market is paying attention to ➡️ Inflation indicators are a key factor in determining the interest rate path.

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

  • December Producer Price Index (PPI)

  • Announcement Date: January 30th

➡️ PPI is an indicator that shows the price flow at the corporate level, and is a direct reference indicator for future consumer price index (CPI) → Federal Reserve policy judgment

🔍 Key Summary

  • The Fed is likely to keep interest rates on hold in the short term.

  • The downward scenario will be gradually reflected only after March.

  • The price index (PPI/CPI) is a key variable in determining future interest rate direction.

  • The market is still in a wait-and-see mode rather than a period of confidence.

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Bitcoin's Current Sideways Movement? Chart and Indicator Analysis


■ Moving averages (MA7, MA25, MA99)

  • The price is formed above the three moving averages: MA7, MA25, and MA99.

  • The correct arrangement structure is maintained as it is arranged in the order of MA7 > MA25 > MA99.

  • The gap between the three moving averages is evenly spaced, and the moving averages have been continuously rising within the recent period.

  • The price frequently moves past MA7 and then rebounds.

Bollinger Bands (BOLL 20, 2)

  • The price is moving above the center line (MB), with frequent pauses near the upper band.

  • After touching the upper band, an adjustment occurs and a rebound is repeated near the center line.

  • Overall, the Bollinger Bands are showing an upward slope, maintaining volatility within the upward trend.

  • In recent minutes, the band width has narrowed slightly, indicating a reduction in short-term volatility.

Volume

  • There is a period between approximately 3:00 and 7:00 where trading volume increases significantly.

  • A high of $93,547.3 was formed immediately after the surge in trading volume.

  • After that, the trading volume gradually decreased and remained at a relatively constant level.

  • The recent period has seen prices move in a narrow range with low trading volume.

RSI(6 · 12 · 24)

  • RSI6 standard: After a high of around 70, it is currently moving between 50 and 60.

  • RSI12 standard: It is moving around the mid-60s, and overbought/oversold levels are not clear.

  • RSI24 standard: Maintain within the range of 55 to 60.

  • Overall, the RSI indicator is in a neutral to weak upward trend.

Pricing structure

  • After forming a major low at $89,200, a continuous high-low upward trend continued.

  • Recent high measured at $93,547.3.

  • After forming a high point, a gentle adjustment took place, and the price maintained its movement above the upward trend line (upward slope).

  • The recent section has formed a narrow range of short-term sideways movement (squeeze) above the moving average line.

🔍 Key takeaways from the chart (fact-based)

  • It moves above the three moving averages and maintains a positive arrangement structure.

  • Bollinger Bands are upward-sloping, with prices moving repeatedly between the upper and center lines.

  • Trading volume increased significantly when the peak was formed and then steadily decreased.

  • RSI remains in the neutral to upper mid-range overall.

  • The price structure is in a clear upward trend with both highs and lows rising.

  • The recent trend is a narrow-range, short-term adjustment/sideways structure.

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