Prediction market platform Polymarket announced a partnership with crypto data company Kaito AI to launch an attention-based prediction market that transforms social media discussion volume and public sentiment into tradeable assets. This new mechanism combines AI data analysis and market pricing systems, allowing users to bet on the future changes in attention toward individuals, brands, or trends, incorporating public attention into the financial market.
The Birth of Attention Prediction Markets: Turning Social Media Volume into Tradeable Assets
Polymarket stated that it will collaborate with Kaito AI to launch a series of 'Attention Markets', enabling users to make predictive trades based on social attention and public opinion trends regarding specific individuals, companies, or issues. Unlike traditional prediction markets that focus on election outcomes or whether policies will pass, the targets of attention markets are 'volume' and 'sentiment'.
By measuring 'mindshare' and 'sentiment indicators,' Kaito AI can transform market volume and sentiment into tradable assets. The former refers to the share of discussion and topics on various platforms, while the latter is derived from analyzing the positive or negative tendencies of post content using natural language processing technology.
Future markets may feature trades such as 'Will Anthropic's mindshare be higher than OpenAI's next month?' or 'Is the community sentiment regarding Elon Musk positive or negative this month?'
(The attention project Noise raised 7.1 million dollars led by Paradigm, moving from MegaETH to Base)
From testing to expansion: Polymarket outlines its product blueprint.
As early as November 2025, Polymarket launched two test markets supported by Kaito data, including events like 'What will Polymarket's mindshare reach by March 31, 2026?' One of the markets even recorded a trading volume exceeding 1 million dollars. At the expiration of the event, settlement will be based on whether the data targets are met.
Polymarket stated that it plans to gradually launch dozens of attention markets starting in March, expanding to hundreds by the end of the year. The initial themes will focus on the artificial intelligence industry, with subsequent expansions into entertainment and international events.
Kaito's data foundation: cross-platform tracking and emotional analysis.
Founded in 2022, Singapore-based Kaito AI focuses on community data aggregation and analysis in the crypto and tech fields. Its system extracts discussion content from platforms like X, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, calculating topic share and emotional tendencies using algorithms. The company's latest funding round values it at 87 million dollars, with investors including Dragonfly, Sequoia, and Jane Street.
Kaito founder Yu Hu stated that through the combination of market mechanisms and data analysis, it may reflect public opinion more timely than traditional polls. However, whether the market can understand and trust new indicators like 'mindshare' and 'sentiment' and their calculations is still seen as key to the expansion of the attention market.
Last month, X announced the ban on InfoFi platform's API after many crypto accounts were incentivized by Kaito Yaps, releasing tens of thousands of low-value content daily and repeatedly responding to meaningless spam dialogues, severely impacting the prices of Kaito and Cookie.
(After being banned from X, Crypto Twitter 'InfoFi' has gone down in history, and Kaito has dropped over 20%)
The experiment of marketizing public opinion: opportunities and challenges coexist.
The launch of the attention market is viewed as an attempt to further financialize the 'attention economy.' If market prices can effectively reflect community discussion trends, the related data may provide new reference indicators for marketing teams and brand strategies. However, community volume may be influenced by bot accounts or emotional manipulation, and AI-based emotional interpretation may also contain biases.
Now, Polymarket has not fully returned to the U.S. market but is actively expanding its product line and partnerships. The team stated that the long-term vision is to 'create a market for everything,' and the attention prediction market is seen as a step towards creating new financial products.
This article discusses the attention prediction market launched by Polymarket in partnership with Kaito AI, asking whether 'community volume' can also be wagered? It first appeared in ChainNews ABMedia.