[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on January 27, 2025 (Monday)

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Macro News
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of January 24, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (comprehensive index) was 2045.45 points, down 85.37 points from the previous period.
According to Reuters and Bloomberg, US President Trump said in an interview with Fox News aired on the evening of January 23rd local time that he would rather not impose tariffs on China, while insisting that tariffs are a "huge force."
According to CCTV News, my country's installed capacity of new energy power generation, mainly wind power and solar power generation, has reached 1.45 billion kilowatts, exceeding the installed capacity of thermal power for the first time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he was willing to discuss issues such as the Ukrainian crisis and energy prices with US President Donald Trump. But Putin said that Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a decree prohibiting him from negotiating with Putin, which complicated the issue of negotiations with Ukraine.
The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on January 24 local time, saying that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said, "Since the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel has not been fully implemented, the Israeli army will not complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon within the 60-day period as agreed."
White House statement: The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel will remain in effect until February 18, 2025. The governments of Lebanon, Israel and the United States will also negotiate on the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7, 2023.
Global futures market changes
International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $2,777.4/ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.64% at $31.04/ounce. This week, COMEX gold futures rose 1.04% and COMEX silver futures fell 0.32%.
International oil prices fell slightly, with the March contract of US crude oil falling 0.03% to $74.60 per barrel. The March contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.1% to $77.48 per barrel. This week, the March contract of US crude oil fell 3.61% and the March contract of Brent crude oil fell 4.1%.
London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures up 0.4% at $9,269/ton, up 0.86% for the week; LME zinc futures down 0.81% at $2,823.5/ton, down 4.03% for the week; LME nickel futures down 0.56% at $15,580/ton, down 3.21% for the week; LME aluminum futures up 0.3% at $2,631.5/ton, down 1.97% for the week; LME tin futures up 0.84% ​​at $30,150/ton, up 1.26% for the week; LME lead futures down 0.62% at $1,937/ton, down 1.53% for the week.
The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 1.01% to 1054.75 cents per bushel, up 2.01% for the week; corn futures down 0.82% to 485.75 cents per bushel, up 0.31% for the week; and wheat futures down 1.85% to 543.75 cents per bushel, up 0.93% for the week.
Domestic commodity futures rose more than fell in the night trading. Cotton yarn rose by more than 1%, coke, cotton, and iron ore rose by nearly 1%; in terms of decline, crude oil and soybean meal fell by more than 1%, soybean oil, glass, and low-sulfur fuel oil fell by nearly 1%. Most base metals fell, Shanghai zinc fell by 1.2%, Shanghai lead fell by 0.51%, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.21%, Shanghai copper fell by 0.04%, Shanghai aluminum remained unchanged, stainless steel rose by 0.46%, and Shanghai tin rose by 0.47%. Shanghai gold rose by 0.31%, and Shanghai silver rose by 0.6%.
Black hot news
Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 149.3431 million tons, down 1.2174 million tons from the previous month, and the average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports is 3.3013 million tons, down 22,600 tons from the previous month. Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports across the country is 155.9961 million tons, down 1.1774 million tons from the previous month.
Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 77.98%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points from the previous week and 1.16 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 84.64%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points from the previous week and 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year; the average daily molten iron output was 2.2545 million tons, an increase of 9,700 tons from the previous week and 21,600 tons from the same period last year.
On January 24, Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement to amend the (Dalian Commodity Exchange Delivery Management Measures) and the business details of coke, coking coal and iron ore futures. According to the announcement, the delivery units of coke, coking coal and iron ore futures contracts were reduced to 100 tons, 60 tons and 5,000 tons respectively, and will be implemented from the 2604 contract.
According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production increased by 5.6% year-on-year to 144.5 million tons in December 2024. In December 2024, China's steel production was 76 million tons, up 11.8% year-on-year.
According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 6.9659 million tons, an increase of 876,500 tons (+14.39%) from last week, covering 39 cities and a total of 147 warehouses.
Hot news on agricultural products
According to Mutian Technology, as of the incomplete statistics as of the day before, the total number of sugar mills in operation in Yunnan in the 2024/25 sugar season has reached 45, an increase of 1 year-on-year; the planned design capacity of the operated sugar mills totals 157,100 tons/day, an increase of 9,500 tons/day year-on-year.
According to Wind data, as of the week of January 24, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 134.32 yuan/head, and on January 17 it was a profit of 157.32 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 28.52 yuan/head, and on January 17 it was a loss of 43.65 yuan/head.
According to foreign media reports, data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canada's canola exports fell 0.2% to 202,500 tons in the week ending January 19 from the previous week, compared with 203,000 tons in the previous week.
According to Mysteel, a nationwide dynamic survey of all sample oil mills showed that in the fourth week (January 18 to January 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0795 million tons, and the operating rate was 58.46%, which was 11,300 tons lower than expected.
According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 to 20 is estimated to decrease by 13.29%, including a decrease of 15.57% in the Malay Peninsula, a decrease of 10% in Sabah, a decrease of 11.27% in Sarawak, and a decrease of 10.37% in East Malaysia.
According to foreign media reports, data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Friday showed that Indonesia's palm oil exports (including refined palm oil products) in November were 2.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of January 16, the U.S. net sales of soybeans for 2024/2025 were 1.492 million tons, compared with 569,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of soybeans for 2025/2026 were 1,000 tons, compared with 0 tons in the previous week; the U.S. soybean export shipments for 2024/2025 were 1.035 million tons, compared with 1.476 million tons in the previous week.
According to data from shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 to 25 are expected to be 934,598 tons, a decrease of 18.9% month-on-month. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 to 25 were 868,960 tons, a decrease of 24.1% from 1,144,412 tons exported in the same period last month.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 1.63% month-on-month and 12.85% year-on-year in January 2025 (31 days). The operating capacity of alumina reached a new high in January.
According to SMM, a large alumina plant in Shandong has adjusted the delivery price of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 32% since January 25, increasing it by 20 yuan/ton on the basis of 910 yuan/ton; that is, the two-invoice system is implemented at 930 yuan/ton (the 100% discount price is about 2906 yuan/ton).
According to Longzhong Information, as of January 23, the new sample of PVC social inventory increased by 0.17% month-on-month to 752,600 tons, an increase of 20.86% year-on-year; among them, the East China region was 719,600 tons, a decrease of 0.10% month-on-month and an increase of 28.53% year-on-year; the South China region was 33,000 tons, an increase of 6.45% month-on-month and a decrease of 47.45% year-on-year.
Metal Hot News
According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association: In 2024, domestic raw material gold production will be 377.242 tons, an increase of 2.087 tons from 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%. Among them, gold mineral production will reach 298.408 tons and non-ferrous by-product gold will reach 78.834 tons.
According to SMM, at this week's Davos Forum, CATL co-chairman Pan Jian said that the company expects to cooperate with another European automaker to open a new battery factory. Facility installation is currently underway and is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025.
According to SMM, the total output of lithium carbonate in China showed a downward trend in January, down 10% from the previous month and up 50% from the previous year. At the end of January, the Spring Festival holiday came, and some lithium salt plants had maintenance and production reduction plans, and the total output of lithium carbonate this month showed a significant decrease.
Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!
The spot price has increased slightly. Will caustic soda remain strong before the holiday?
Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that in terms of inventory, the current caustic soda inventory continues to decline, and the partial supply phenomenon still exists. According to the accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival in previous years, the inventory pressure after the holiday is not great, and some enterprises may still reduce their load due to the influence of liquid chlorine. The optimistic supply and demand expectations at the current time point are still difficult to disprove, and the 05 contract is still treated with a relatively strong mindset in the medium term. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some downstream companies will stop working and leave the market, and the spot transaction atmosphere may fall back. It is necessary to pay attention to futures positions and funds, and holiday inventory changes. 2. Downstream supply has improved, is it appropriate to wait and see polysilicon before the holiday? Guotou Futures analysis pointed out that polysilicon continued to reduce positions and closed down, closing at 43,200 yuan/ton. Spot quotations remained stable, with an average price of N-type at 42,000 yuan/ton, close to the production cost of the head. The market is in a wait-and-see attitude, and polysilicon companies have different production schedules in February. The tight supply of downstream silicon wafers has improved. After the fermentation of the UFLPA list, the market's wait-and-see attitude has increased, and the expectation of 46GW of silicon wafer production in January has not changed for the time being. Recently, the industry is still mostly guided by self-regulatory agreements for production scheduling. The bottom of polysilicon prices is relatively certain. Currently, the level of capital participation in the industry is not high, so it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday.
A look at this week's important futures data and events
On January 27, due to the Spring Festival holiday, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will not conduct night trading. Domestic futures exchanges will be closed from January 28 to February 4. The market will open as usual on February 5 (Wednesday), so please pay attention.
At 09:30 on January 27, China’s official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, composite PMI, and steel industry PMI for January.
January 27th to be determined, Malaysia’s SPPOMA palm oil production estimate from January 1 to 25.
At 03:00 on January 30, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision. At 03:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference.
At 21:30 on January 31, the United States will announce the monthly and annual rates of the core PCE price index in December.
January 31st to be determined, ITS/AmSpec/SGS Malaysian palm oil export data from January 1st to 31st.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data