#fedoctoberratehikeodd
fedoctoberratehikeodd
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From 75% to 17%: The Fed slams on the brakes and the labor market changes the rules of the game.While most people focus on short-term noise, the derivatives and forecasting market has just executed one of the most aggressive macro turns of the quarter: the probability of a Fed rate hike for October collapsed to 17% (from a prior 75%), leaving 83% of consensus in favor of a pause.
Here are the real data behind the move and its technical impact:
1. The evidence: The break in labor market data
The trigger wasn’t speculative; it was backed by official employment figures (NFP):
From 75% to 17%: The Fed slams on the brakes and the labor market changes the rules of the game.
While most people focus on short-term noise, the derivatives and forecasting market has just executed one of the most aggressive macro turns of the quarter: the probability of a Fed rate hike for October collapsed to 17% (from a prior 75%), leaving 83% of consensus in favor of a pause.
Here are the real data behind the move and its technical impact:
1. The evidence: The break in labor market data
The trigger wasn’t speculative; it was backed by official employment figures (NFP):
Here are the real data behind the move and its technical impact:
1. The evidence: The break in labor market data
The trigger wasn’t speculative; it was backed by official employment figures (NFP):
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