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$BTC demonstrated a sharp rise at the beginning of the week. As a result of this momentum, the cryptocurrency nearly reached the $64,000 mark, recording a local high at $63,900, according to CoinGecko. The upward move continued a confident rally into the weekend. The jump in the price triggered forced closures of short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

The price $BTC approached a local bottom. This was stated by CEO of the investment company VanEck, Jan van Eck, in an interview with CNBC.
According to him, the four-year halving cycle continues to drive quotes, rather than fundamental factors. Van Eck expects a gradual increase in digital gold this year.

$BTC completed the first 'red' October in seven years: the month closed below the mark of $114,000, showing a decline of about 3%. A series of six consecutive 'green' Octobers has been interrupted, and now investors are trying to understand why the market is not growing, even though the external macro conditions look favorable.

The world’s largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), reported that last week it sold 3588 $BTC for approximately $216 million. Strategy said that proceeds from the sale of the bitcoins will be used to fund payments on its preferred shares STRC and to replenish its dollar reserve, which also goes toward investor payments.

The total open interest in derivatives based on digital gold has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022. This was indicated by the CryptoQuant analyst under the nickname Arab Chain.
«The current dynamics clearly reflect a decline in risk appetite and a massive outflow of liquidity from futures markets on the largest exchanges», commented the expert.

The largest outflow was recorded on March 4: in one day, users withdrew 31,900 $BTC from cryptocurrency exchanges, which is equivalent to approximately $2.26 billion. At the same time, about 25,000 BTC were withdrawn from the Bitfinex exchange, where the largest fund outflow since last June was recorded, noted CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler.

Experts noted the first signs of improvement in the network state $BTC against the backdrop of a gradual stabilization of market conditions. At the same time, it is premature to talk about a full recovery of the market.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing growth and has already risen above recent lows. However, the price movement currently lacks the momentum needed for a sustainable reversal. Activity on spot exchanges remains moderate, indicating a cautious stance from most market participants,” the report states.

Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has reached its bleakest levels in the past decade. According to a February survey by Bank of America (BofA), the share of investments oriented towards the American currency has fallen to a record low since early 2012. Such an extreme bearish position is usually a classic bullish signal for $BTC , however, in 2026 the market faced an anomaly that calls this logic into question.

The shift in sentiment among wallet holders, where 10 $BTC to 10,000 $BTC experts explained as a bullish signal pointing to a potential increase in cryptocurrency prices in the near future. Analysts have called the current situation a "positive reversal." According to Santiment, wallets with a balance of 10 to 10,000 bitcoins currently account for 68.17% of the total supply of the asset, while a week ago this figure was 68.07%.

Three models
On the six-month horizon, when searching for the bottom in the cryptocurrency market, one can rely on three models. These are historical data from previous cycles and comparisons with gold.
The first model is based on the pattern from 2019, which is closest to the current macroeconomic situation. Back then, the market grew from about $3,000 to $13,000, after which it entered a prolonged correction to $6,500. All this occurred against the backdrop of a rising stock market and the pause in the reduction of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) — just like now. If we extrapolate that pattern onto the current cycle, the market is already close to its minimum values — in the range of $67,000–73,000.

According to the top manager, bitcoins may be especially in demand in conditions of armed conflict when the banking infrastructure stops working, and financial restrictions and closed borders make access to one's own funds difficult.
As an example, he told the story of the women of Afghanistan who earned bitcoins by working remotely on software development. By storing funds in cold wallets, the women were able to preserve and transport their assets out of the country.

Over the past weekend, the price $BTC fluctuated from $63,000 to $66,000. Analysts noted the high resilience of the segment: the round-the-clock nature of trading allowed investors to quickly manage risks while traditional platforms were closed.
Dominic John from Kronos Research emphasized that cryptocurrencies quickly regained positions after local downturns. Chief analyst at CoinEx, Jeff Ko, added: Bitcoin held around $66,000 even amidst stock sell-offs in Asia. In his opinion, the market perceived the price spike as a temporary phenomenon rather than a signal of a prolonged decline.

The price $BTC fell below the $70,000 mark. Leading altcoins decreased by 4-7% in a day.
The total liquidation volume in the futures market reached $558.26 million.
Spot bitcoin ETFs ended a seven-day streak of capital inflows. On March 18, investment products recorded a net outflow of $129.6 million.

On March 9, quotes $BTC temporarily dropped to ~$65,700. Experts have differing opinions on the future movement of the market: some expect growth, while others warn of risks of a decline amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $67,185 (+0.1% in the last 24 hours).

Stocks and crypto are entering one of the most dangerous combinations of news in recent months.
Two events are happening simultaneously:
1️⃣ Trump's new tariffs against Europe
2️⃣ US Supreme Court decision on the legality of these tariffs
And all this is happening at the moment the markets open. The recipe for extreme volatility is ready. Over the weekend, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on the EU. This is the first serious escalation in almost 3 months. The last time the market faced a tariff shock (October 10):

According to the businessman, the current price range for $BTC is hardly considered the bottom of the market, which means that the quotes for the first cryptocurrency may continue to decline:
“A situation is forming now where a short-term rise creates the illusion of the beginning of a sustainable upward trend. Such dynamics may persist until the end of April.”

The military operation of the USA and Israel against Iran will positively affect the quotes $BTC . This opinion was shared by analysts from the London Crypto Club.
The conflict in the Middle East, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may become a catalyst for the rise of Bitcoin. Experts David Brickell and Chris Mills referred to the incident as a "narrative catalyst" that the market has long awaited.