April is coming to an end. Let’s take stock of the market conditions in April and look forward to the direction of May.
There are similarities between April and March, but it is a bit different from my personal expectations. I originally thought that after BTC became the dominant player in March, April would usher in the altcoin market, because that was the case in January and February. I thought that in March , can be copied again in April, it seems that I am still naive and simple! In April, the currency circle is still looking at BTC’s face. The altcoins are showing a 28% split, and the differentiation is serious. It is another unprofitable month for retail investors. There is no way, whoever tells retail investors to love altcoins will only bet on altcoins. coins, but this year, altcoins have fallen more than they have risen. Good coins are not easy to find, and the success rate of coin selection is no more than 50%. Retail investors silently watch BTC outperform most altcoins. I don’t know if retail investors will continue in May. What about just buying altcoins?
BTC has increased by 9% this month. Although the increase is narrower than that in March, it has still increased. It has increased for four consecutive months. Do you accept it? The cumulative increase this year is more than 70%. I believe that most retail investors have underperformed the market this year. Looking back now, do you regret it? Do you still dare to despise BTC? You say that only altcoins can make you rich. How many people who bought altcoins this year have made money?
Therefore, reasonable position allocation is very important. Don’t invest all your positions in altcoins. At least 30% to 40% of your positions should be placed in BTC and ETH, and then use 30% of your positions to invest in altcoins with a small risk for a big return. Make sure that the remaining positions are not fully invested and can be adjusted at any time. This is reasonable position management. If you work with a full position every day and have a lot of altcoins in your hands, how much risk will you bear?
This month, BTC has completed two tasks: one is to break through the 30,000 mark, and the other is to reach a high of $31,000. Attached are the requirements for BTC this month. The last time it broke through 30,000 and 31,000 was in June last year, further confirming the signal that the market has bottomed out in the medium term. So I don’t understand why more and more voices have been saying since April that BTC is about to peak and can’t go up anymore. On the contrary, I think the BTC market has just begun. After completing the bottoming out, it is in the mid-term recovery stage. This wave of market will not end easily, nor will it end so soon.
I still firmly believe that the price of BTC can reach at least $35,000 in the first half of the year, and even reach the $40,000 mark if I accidentally like it. I don’t think $31,000 is the top in the first half of the year. Of course, I don’t have the final say. As time will verify, I think the best The answer may come as soon as next week.
Because the price of BTC is now close to US$30,000, it cannot be ruled out that the closing price in April will be at the US$30,000 mark, which is close to the highest closing price. Is it difficult to increase the price by US$1,000 in one week? It is very easy to rise if you want to, and BTC showed box fluctuations for most of April. You can think of it as a "half-time break". The increase in the first quarter is always large, and a rest process is needed. However, the rest that BTC chose is not an active correction. , but "substituting a horizontal decline", indicating that the trend is not over yet, and BTC bulls are still in the dominant stage. As long as the bulls think they have had enough rest and want to continue moving forward, it is very easy to break new highs.
Next week there will be the Federal Reserve meeting and the April non-farm payrolls report, which is an extremely important and stimulating week. If the news can be coordinated, it will promote a new round of "runaway" market in the currency circle. It is not difficult for BTC to reach $32,000, and it will be fierce by then. Let’s wait and see how hard it will hit those who are short-term in April!
Next we will usher in the 5.1 long holiday. There has been a pattern in the currency circle in the past three or four years. During the long holidays, there will be big market conditions, and they are usually good. If you don’t believe it, you can check the Spring Festival, National Day, and other events in the past few years. 5. The performance of the first market, plus there will be such heavy news next week, so the market next week is worth looking forward to.
As for whether it will rise or fall next week, of course, it will mainly be determined by the content of the Federal Reserve meeting. It is relatively certain that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the May Federal Reserve meeting. This is not a good thing. The market has been sluggish for the past half month. Digest this negative news in advance, so if there is no new negative news brought to the market at this meeting, it will mean that the negative news will be eliminated and the negative news will be exhausted. Things will reverse when the time comes, and the price will rise!
In addition, if this meeting hints that interest rate hikes may be stopped in June, once this information is released, it will be a "major positive" to the market and the market will rise even more sharply. We look forward to hearing good news, but it is uncertain now, so don't think that there will definitely be good news coming out of this meeting. Anyway, as long as there is no bad news, it is good news.
Having said so much, I believe that everyone does not care whether BTC can rise. The most important thing is whether altcoins can rise. Otherwise, if they watch BTC rise in the past few months and the altcoins are indifferent, then they will feel like giving up. What about the altcoins in May? Is there any chance for coins?
ETH/BTC has been falling continuously in the past half month, and it has been falling all the way, which shows that BTC has been pressing ETH to the ground for "friction", and ETH has no power to fight back. ETH is the king of copycats, and even the "king" cannot win. How can you still Do you expect other altcoins to be stronger than BTC? , or the first law, if you want to see altcoins rise, you must first let ETH rise. The biggest psychological obstacle for ETH at present is the $2,000 mark. Although it once rose to $2,141 in April, it stayed above $2,000 for only one week, and then "painted the door" ”, it can be seen that the confidence is still insufficient, and the funds cannot support more than $2000.
In May, ETH's first priority is to stabilize above $2,000, then break new highs and show strong demeanor. Only then will the market's confidence in ETH be doubled, and funds will be willing to flow into ETH. Only in this way will the altcoin market have hope. Therefore, for the market to rise, it requires process and time. The right location and people are not something you just want, but I am personally still optimistic about the altcoin market in May, and the probability of it happening is still not low.
Because May may be the "final climax" in the first half of the year. Generally, when the market enters the end of the market, market sentiment is at a climax stage. When there is a general rise in the market, because when most currencies are rising, retail investors will Red-eye, rush in, and then the main force pulls the market to ship, and eventually retail investors become the takers. Therefore, before the end of the market, if there is not a wave of FOMO market, it means that the market is not over yet. When everyone sees 40,000, 50,000, or even breaks When it reaches a new historical high, it is the time to reach the top!
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